"Freedom" thread or something |
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Equality 7-2521
Forum Senior Member Joined: August 11 2005 Location: Philly Status: Offline Points: 15784 |
Posted: March 07 2015 at 13:26 | ||
Rigor or careful proof was something that came up in the 18-19th century. All the holes were retroactively filled in then. Nowadays without proof you're not doing math. So yes we do new things.
I suspect some of it is just a form of selection as you suggest. However, with the caveat that I think some of this mathematicizing of econ is misguided, I do think that some of what goes on in economics really needs people fluent in real analysis. For example, the integral that you learn in Calc, the Riemann integral, is incredibly deficient and almost worthless for real applications. Other integrals are necessary and to even define them you would need to be fluent in technical mathematics. Also, when you go through proving all this calc business, you gain a familiarity with the workings of the machinery that I don't think you can quite get through another means. This is necessary for lots of things done in econ. Knowledge of topology would also seem to be essential. |
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"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "
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Padraic
Special Collaborator Honorary Collaborator Joined: February 16 2006 Location: Pennsylvania Status: Offline Points: 31169 |
Posted: March 08 2015 at 06:28 | ||
I think "incredibly" deficient and "almost worthless" is probably taking it too far. |
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JJLehto
Prog Reviewer Joined: April 05 2006 Location: Tallahassee, FL Status: Offline Points: 34550 |
Posted: March 09 2015 at 15:50 | ||
Well that is interesting and makes sense Pat.
Though part of the reason I wondered that is there does seem to be more mathematical requirements as you "go up the ladder" of program prestige so I just wondered how much was useful, or just there to act as a signal or prove the rigor of the program. Some programs for example ask for only Calc II and linear algebra, while some say Real Analysis is pretty much essential as well as a slew of other courses, I was like...what exactly is the difference in what they teach? And are "lesser" programs maybe more stats/data based rather than theory and math? Just for curiosity, thanks a bunch. As stated I can only get to Diffe Q/level IV anyway by the time I apply so oh well
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Equality 7-2521
Forum Senior Member Joined: August 11 2005 Location: Philly Status: Offline Points: 15784 |
Posted: March 11 2015 at 11:18 | ||
Well I mean specifically for applications in economics. I mean since it was sufficient for both Newton's and Maxwell's synthesis in physics I guess I would be pretty crazy to say that in general. |
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"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "
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Equality 7-2521
Forum Senior Member Joined: August 11 2005 Location: Philly Status: Offline Points: 15784 |
Posted: March 11 2015 at 11:22 | ||
I don't really know enough about the day to day research of an economist, but I would think part of it being a focus on stats/analysis of data and the other part being more focused on working in a classical frame work with its simplifying assumptions. |
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"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "
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Padraic
Special Collaborator Honorary Collaborator Joined: February 16 2006 Location: Pennsylvania Status: Offline Points: 31169 |
Posted: March 11 2015 at 11:45 | ||
Oh gotcha. |
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JJLehto
Prog Reviewer Joined: April 05 2006 Location: Tallahassee, FL Status: Offline Points: 34550 |
Posted: March 26 2015 at 00:10 | ||
Since I am sometimes told I make things too complicated, here is a simple picture
And I even agree, the gov is probably at fault to a large extent. Without it's tampering, maybe some of it would spill into that first layer of glasses
Edited by JJLehto - March 26 2015 at 00:11 |
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rogerthat
Prog Reviewer Joined: September 03 2006 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 9869 |
Posted: March 28 2015 at 05:08 | ||
Trickle down theory was just a populist concoction to sell the idea of capitalism to the masses. Even Thatcher mentioned popular capitalism in her third term, I think. Its limited utility is in terms of pulling govt out when govt crowds out the market and weighs down business. Otherwise, in a democratic set up, voters are not remiss to expect sound economic management by the govt and chronically anemic job creation is bound to give rise to the suspicion that govt is shirking its responsibility and colluding with big business. There was recently much consternation in India when the so-called Central Statistical Organisation released a new set of GDP numbers calculated at market prices instead of factor cost and also enlarged its measurement to include smaller businesses that had hitherto not tracked. Consternation because the numbers indicated faster economic growth, belying the trend of waning profits of the big guys, the ones listed on the stock exchange and whose head honchos regularly appear on CNBC. Because if GDP growth was better than previously thought to be, govt may not find the need to help out the big guys to be so urgent. The response, predictably, was to insinuate that the numbers had damaged India's credibility when in fact they had aligned them more closely with the way GDP is already being measured in many countries.
There seems to be a long list of societal entities that big business needs protection from, especially in India: foreign competition, ecommerce players, NGOs and activists, the poor . Makes one wonder whether perhaps they are the real needy ones that govt has been ignoring all the time.
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JJLehto
Prog Reviewer Joined: April 05 2006 Location: Tallahassee, FL Status: Offline Points: 34550 |
Posted: March 28 2015 at 14:32 | ||
You would know better, I know little of Thacter other than she was the British Female Reagan, a lot of talk, but didn't really do much to "curb the state" though her words/influence trickled down through both parties and the populace.
In fact I thought most of the welfare state was largely kept intact, same with Reagan, just taxes came down for wealthy, unions were busted up (which I am not super upset about) and mainly they pushed for deregulation which at least partly led to our last crisis. I know, just wanted to post that lil jab since supply side/trickle down is still put out there. The most recent "experiment" (as Governor Brownback called it) was in Kansas where supply side ideas just led to big deficits, which a state can't hold like the fed, and no spurring of growth. I just find it humorous some, or many?, still adhere to this whackiness: If we give businesses more money, they will create jobs that they have no need for, or if the we give more to the wealthy they will spend more...not save it or stash it in speculations or maybe buy yachts and houses and luxury cars from overseas, stuff that really helps the domestic economy! Indeed my friend, socialism for the rich, capitalism for the poor as they say. We all compete, in the US and over seas now, and even up the ladder competition is getting fierce with MNCs moving about and engineers/tech/health people coming more from over seas...but certain sectors and industries continue to be protected from the competition capitalists hate so much Same here...businesses need protecting from those same things: environmentalists, foreigners, their own workers and the poor. I think I mentioned here my shift from more libertarian to my current views were the realization if market capitalism needs some amount of permanent unemployment/lower class it's a little, misinformed or cruel, to "cut em off" and even guys like Greenspan have stated more or less that. His comments on "unemployment being good" and "the insecurity of workers" being good, since it dampens wages. And if you think about, the phillips curve and NAIRU and all this is basically saying just that: we need unemployed and low paid to keep things stable. More I think about it, I think in some, (SOME) ways Marx still has some validity. Labor vs capital, even today. Esp with guys like Piketty becoming superstars and lots of middle class college educated folk taking part in Occupy Wall Street...and even US politics, it's not been the lowly masses stepping up, its been the top progressively entrenching themselves and trying to shred the buffers we have. It may be ideological but I think this limited gov/unrestraining capitalism mentality has just unleashed the olden have vs have nots trouble. Those who fail to learn from history, or something like that... BTW I recently picked up and have been attempting to read Piketty's book. Not what I expected, surprised it became a best seller. I like the rigor but wish a "simplified" version could be put out. Lots of great history though, I appreciate he points out how the US used to be more egalitarian than Europe, and proud of it, and was actually a leader in taxing wealth and estates to try and prevent the rigid class structure and aristocracy, that we now have forming...
Anyway, a lot to digest still but I hope the conversation can be opened more about how, even today, it's become a capital vs the rest struggle and new ideas needed (or some old) to prevent this. IDK if Piketty hits on this in his book, but I know wealth was often wiped out via financial crashes, depressions, plus philanthropy and some taxation/social distribution policies. I'm not sure we can bank on the 19th century "earn alot give it all way" mentality, and stability policies seems to keep wealth afloat despite disasters. (QE alone has been an amazing boon for wealth holding) I just think some new ideas are needed in todays world. Or perhaps some old ideas, like those of Irving Fisher and Hyman Minsky, that just never got any traction until very recently. Edited by JJLehto - March 28 2015 at 14:44 |
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JJLehto
Prog Reviewer Joined: April 05 2006 Location: Tallahassee, FL Status: Offline Points: 34550 |
Posted: March 28 2015 at 14:42 | ||
Oh god, once that last wall of text is digested, I have a question for you Roger (or anyone) but I think you may be well inclined to know this answer.
What have you heard/know about "endogenous money"? I recently have read about a theory (fact?) that the classic: "Deposits are given out by the bank as loans", and "the central bank controls the money supply" notions are false. Supposedly, banks simply give out loans as they feel like, "creating the money out of thin air" and this creates some double entries, like the assets and liabilities of a consumer become the flip of the bank, I'm not quite sure to be honest. Anyway it means the system itself controls the money supply, and the Central Bank cant do much about it. As banks create this money, they go to the CB so make up the difference, discount window I believe. I know CBs dont "control" the money supply but this notion seems difficult for me to grasp. You have any input? I can "get it" but I just am curious to the proof this is how things operate, and why does nearly everyone stick with the "banks are just intermediaries" notion? Supposedly the Bank of England has put out a paper saying things do work exactly as that, and other people have said the same. So, why the vast difference in mainstream opinion? Even in my money and baking class, it was how you deposit, a fraction kept, rest loaned out, that banks simply move money from patient to impatient and etc Do deposits do nothing then? What even is the point of "fractional reserve banking " then? I'm confused Edit: I found it btw if you care, guess I'll give it a try: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/quarterlybulletin/2014/qb14q1prereleasemoneycreation.pdf
Edited by JJLehto - March 28 2015 at 15:10 |
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rogerthat
Prog Reviewer Joined: September 03 2006 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 9869 |
Posted: March 29 2015 at 01:48 | ||
I will have to read that in detail. Don't think I can manage it on a computer, will have to take a print and read it at leisure. It's a very new concept, which I haven't heard of before. Both from cash flow and accounting perspective, it doesn't resonate with me. It is when customers park deposits with the bank that they get funds, which can be lent out. Likewise, I get that a deposit is just a liability and not an asset. So how does money mortgaged out to a customer become a matching deposit?! I will have to read it carefully to get to terms with the implications of it.
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rogerthat
Prog Reviewer Joined: September 03 2006 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 9869 |
Posted: March 29 2015 at 01:56 | ||
About your other post, it has to be nuanced, right? Which is why I think it is important that at least in the 21st century, economics breaks out of the shackles of ideology. It's goods being exchanged for consideration, it's money changing hands. These are hard transactions. Where's the room for sharp, polarizing ideological differences here unless both sides willfully focus on only one set of facts and ignore the other? There's no point theorizing about an imaginary scenario where the state has no role; the way politics has evolved over the last several years that is unlikely to happen. There is a role for the state and there is also a role for business too. To be fair, Keynes did break out of ideological dogma with his original proposition. The problem is more with the way it was hijacked later on as a purely demand-boosting steroid.
Edited by rogerthat - March 29 2015 at 01:58 |
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JJLehto
Prog Reviewer Joined: April 05 2006 Location: Tallahassee, FL Status: Offline Points: 34550 |
Posted: March 29 2015 at 02:52 | ||
Yeah, it's bizarre to me and I am not really sure I grasp it. I came across this idea from more obscure guys like Steve Keen who cited the "monetary circuit theory" claiming that the banking sector itself creates money, and (I think) creates/destroys money by making and paying back loans. I really have no idea honestly! But the BoE did put that out which is what really intrigued me. I asked you as well since you have accounting experience, and they seem to claim it involves double entry accounting or something. Wow very funny you say that, I've been reading more and more about people saying just that: Keynes has been hijacked and "Keynesianism" really has moved from what he said, and especially more recent merges with the neoclassical ideals, and that debate these days has become pretty limited. There is variety between conservative Keynesians like Mankiw and liberals Krugman and Stiglitz, and of course the Chicago school and Harvard are pretty neo classical, but yeah...maybe there needs to be more debate including from heterodox ideas, and older/left behind economists that have some very intriguing ideas. Edited by JJLehto - March 29 2015 at 03:00 |
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rogerthat
Prog Reviewer Joined: September 03 2006 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 9869 |
Posted: March 29 2015 at 04:33 | ||
Double entry is the bedrock of accounting. If the term is used in any other sense in an accounting context, I am not aware of it. Basically, every transaction creates a debit and a credit and thus always affects two ledger accounts at the same time. The transaction of money going out of the bank to a customer's account would be represented by a credit to "cash/bank account" as it involves an outgo of cash for the bank and a debit to the "customer's account" or a general "mortgages" account as it creates a debtor/receivable asset. Perhaps, the proposition is that the very act of the bank giving out money as mortgage to the customer is treated as creation of money. This much I can follow. What I cannot yet follow is how it creates a deposit. A deposit received by the bank would involve an inflow of money and a liability on their part to the depositor. They are basically on opposite sides of the balance sheet so how a bank may treat a mortgage loaned out as a deposit beats me. I shall keep an open mind and read the BoE article in detail, though.
I think Keynes did very meaningful work in defining an economic role for the state. I am not really well versed in the history of economics so I cannot say if it was done before. But it is certainly far removed from neo classical theory. He tackled the question of how the state might mobilise savings to raise public investment which in turn would create jobs and thereby more demand, leading to more production and more jobs, etc. The best application of Keynesianism was probably observed in East Asian economies. I don't support their repression of household savings as well as taking away several civil liberties as a means to the end. But they have been far more successful than say India in propelling economic development through investment. It took far too long for India's economic think tanks to appreciate the importance of high savings to push investment. And even thereafter, nothing much has been done to deepen the reach of its financial sector to tap into savings locked in hard assets like gold and landholdings. It would appear that, especially since the 60s, Keynesian theory was used to fund welfare in the Western economies and welfare can stimulate demand by putting money in the hands of customers but does not by itself create productive assets. The East Asian economies created both productive assets as well as physical and social infrastructure. I am not saying their strategy did not have its own set of adverse consequences, but if the ultimate aim of government is the alleviation of poverty and providing a reasonable level of prosperity to many of its citizens, they were far more successful at that than India.
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JJLehto
Prog Reviewer Joined: April 05 2006 Location: Tallahassee, FL Status: Offline Points: 34550 |
Posted: March 29 2015 at 11:12 | ||
Yeah that's what thrown me for a loop too.
Just to add to the mystery, people such as Merv King from the BoE, as well as others from the Fed, IMF and even BIS have said similar things. Adair Turner, if you know who that is I dont says "“Banks do not, as too many textbooks still suggest,take deposits of existing money from savers and lend it out to borrowers: they create credit and money ex nihilo [out of nothing] – extending a loan to the borrower and simultaneously crediting the borrower’s money account” As for Keynes, I've not actually read his work so I'm not fully sure either, and I do hate relying on interpretations, especially since his run from "Be there to prevent crises" to he had a hatred of Capitalism sooooo As for econ history, of course govs started stepping in to stem crises more and more in recent history, you know spurred on from WWI, and of course the New Deal preceded Keynes' big work. It sounds like he really broke the mold by advocating for deficit spending at the time, while FDR still kept taxes high and tried to maintain some amount of balance. Like they accepted the gov could take actions but it had to be "paid for" and Keynes differed in that regard. Again I've heard different interpretations but I'm inclined to say Keynes did feel the state should have a direct, permanent role and bucked the old "equillibrium" notions. Seems he basically felt capitalism never ran "perfectly, with occasional hiccup/slide" as was taught but it's more or less permanently out of whack and needs gov there, in some form, to keep it from falling apart. Is what I take from it. Personally, I am more inclined to the latter strategy you mentioned, investment in capital, human or physical, social and physical infrastructure, perhaps environmental concerns. I see this as longer term better than simply welfare though I have no issue with that per se, and it may be better than these various demand boosting tactics or stimulii packages that at least in the US seemed to be a very'leaky bucket' though better than nothing. Edited by JJLehto - March 29 2015 at 11:22 |
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rogerthat
Prog Reviewer Joined: September 03 2006 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 9869 |
Posted: March 30 2015 at 01:45 | ||
Having read the article carefully, I can make sense of it now. Deposit here is simply an accounting signifier. As said in the article, the bank doesn't actually move cash when it lends a loan. It simply passes an accounting entry crediting the borrower's bank account with the amount. If it's a mortgage then the 'entry' will move from the borrower's account to the seller's. Let's get back to the original entry in my earlier comment. I can't make a credit to cash/bank because no actual cash has moved. Hence, I will credit a matching deposit to square off the asset. When an asset is created in the books, it must be against real resources expended, i.e consideration paid in cash or kind. Or it must be matched by a liability. The deposit liability is thus created to square off the loan asset created without parting with cash. It is actually consistent with what I learnt in the textbook, except the textbook didn't use the accounting concept of a matching liability.
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JJLehto
Prog Reviewer Joined: April 05 2006 Location: Tallahassee, FL Status: Offline Points: 34550 |
Posted: March 30 2015 at 21:09 | ||
My question is, what is the role of deposits then, if they are not loaned out? Simply to earn interest? And what is thus the role of fractional reserve? I guess I just am struggling with this, esp not being versed in this double book accounting thing, I am trying to sort out these asset/liability movements and following the money Also if this is simply a more detailed explanation of reality, why the difference? Is this simply too confusing? And to the original point, which was the claim the money supply is endogenous and the CB cant do much...do you feel this is accurate? That paper at least claims the CB, indirectly, is a major limit/creator on the money supply, even though banks and consumers seem to play a large role as well.
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rogerthat
Prog Reviewer Joined: September 03 2006 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 9869 |
Posted: April 02 2015 at 11:43 | ||
I think deposits as well as reserve money in fact serve as (necessary) constraints on the amount of money a commercial bank may 'create'. The former emerges through competition. As in the mortgage example, when the seller receives compensation for the property sold, he will park it in the bank and a deposit is created. This bank may or may not be the one which has loaned out the mortgage. It is covered in the BoE article, by the by. Whereas reserve money would appear to be directly impacted by the open market operations of the central bank as also any statutory constraints they may impose on banks. Like a Cash Reserve Ratio for instance. Thus, it may be said that the creation of money is largely endogenous indeed subject to limitations placed by Central Bank, which however may be influenced more by inflation and asset price movements rather than the quantum of money supply itself. The lesson learnt from the Great Depression seems to have been that the Central Bank ought not to try to manipulate the level of money supply. QE of course is one big exception.
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JJLehto
Prog Reviewer Joined: April 05 2006 Location: Tallahassee, FL Status: Offline Points: 34550 |
Posted: April 03 2015 at 10:34 | ||
All makes sense.
Crazy me, I thought the lesson from the GD was a central bank shouldn't let the money supply collapse. Though it does seem good ol Milty was indeed wrong in his policy prescription, the money supply can't be "controlled" in the strict manner he wanted. At least not under fractional... even though he correctly observed the money supply/well being link. Yeah I guess he had it a bit backwards, they economy moves the money supply largely! Speaking of QE, this all raises another interesting question. As you know QE is just buying assets off the banks, (do we know what officially? I thought it was a lot of those "toxic assets" they had) and thus stuffing them full of money and the reserves of course held by the CB. This doesn't "throw $ in the economy" as stated but, I believe, hopes to lower the yield curve + create a wealth effect via this stock market boom. Sooooooo with banking working this way in reality, how necessary is QE? Banks don't need reserves, especially in this large amount. The money has largely circulated around the baking system with little if any getting out into the economy, has the QE money gone just to keep them solvent? That is what the lender of last resort is for but yeah, is QE basically another bailout? Please tell me if I'm wrong but seems the set up, and results, has been to remove those bad assets from the banks, and the swelling stock market helps well those who hold stock Seems like a big 1% (I hate that term though) boon. I'm sure you've seen the numbers, bank lending stagnant/decreasing but very profitable, the top earners saw their wealth rebound and skyrocket higher. Was QE at least necessary? Like would the banks have gone under without it? If not, I think perhaps this has been, even if inadvertent, a boon for the top. If those big banks would fail, shoot maybe best to just put em in receivership, strip em down/lay off/unwind stuff and return em, or let em fall? EDIT: OH and of course all those reserves created by QE earn that .25% interest or whatever, a pathetic amount, but it's not like once the economy picks up they can get higher return by lending it. They have no need for reserves to lend, as we know.
Edited by JJLehto - April 03 2015 at 10:45 |
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rogerthat
Prog Reviewer Joined: September 03 2006 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 9869 |
Posted: April 03 2015 at 22:43 | ||
Yeah, as the BoE article states, QE started out with the aim of moving toxic assets to govt ownership. The idea then may have been to support banks and prevent them from failing again. Later on, it seems to have become a means to artificially inflate asset prices in the hope of stimulating economic activity. As you said, enrich the top 1%. It would appear then to be a 21st century rehash of trickle down theory in effect. Hoping that somehow all the property and stock market action would percolate down to the economy. To some extent, it has in the US and Germany too has seen an uptick post the ECB's version of QE. But as we discussed earlier, the results would have probably been better had QE also been backed by public investment. That would have directly created employment and triggered the so called virtuous circle.
Edited by rogerthat - April 03 2015 at 22:43 |
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