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JJLehto View Drop Down
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 04 2013 at 23:42
Thread is dying...I better step in to boost it's demand.

Just curious, can anyone explain China's economy to me? Specifically, how as an export driven economy, has it maintained these levels of growth despite the entire world be recessed? I mean where are all these products going?
It could all be going somewhere, but yeah was just curious how it's happening. Fake numbers? Bubble? Investing in other countries?

Also Roger and I discussed how it can't maintain it's export driven growth and I indeed read recently China seems open (at least in rhetoric) to liberalizing their economy a bit more and becoming a  domestic consumption based economy.


Edited by JJLehto - December 04 2013 at 23:43
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 05 2013 at 00:06
Originally posted by King of Loss King of Loss wrote:

Originally posted by JJLehto JJLehto wrote:

Certainly interesting points to ponder Roger, and yes that can't be denied...almost the entire Obama administration has been a waste unfortunately.  
As of October unemployment was at 7.3% officially. There's the sticky wicket of "unofficial employment" (people who have stopped looking) whcih I've seen near 11% as well as things like "marginally attached" and etc it's been a very very weak recovery.
 
Yes, it's like another 1930's the recession is over and there has been growth, but with a lack of jobs. I think these two are unique situations, in the 20s and 2000s the private sector took on way too much debt (reasons of which are debated) and that really holds back growth. Instead of bouncing back it just drags along. And the private sector will do what it can to maintain growth, spread work around as people leave/are let go, reduce hours, move offshore, all things that wont create jobs of course. It's all kind of hobbling along of course, a kick to the leg and it may all topple again. I know fears are if the US pushes for austerity it may cause a second recession (like in the late 30s) or if Europe dips into a second recession (which it seems to just barely be fighting off) this can topple the house as well.
 
Yes, of course KoL legal is not the problem at all, but there really is an issue with granting too many rights to illegal immigrants IMO. I mean, they're trying to build a life like we all did but cmon...it's getting borderline crazy now.
 
As for welfare, indeed outside SS I'd say much of it has been a failure. Not that it hasn't helped some but can also create bad situations/perverse incentives and a host of other unintended consiquences. This is an interesting take on it http://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/ppb78.pdf  It actually goes a bit to what Roger was saying about the 60s.
Also that yeah, in the long run much welfare has failed in its goal. I've seen seminars/interviews with some of those people and they've elaborated: how things such as civil rights and blacks leaving the south helped more than welfare, that welfare traps can be created..as you put it, serfdom: Just enough to stay alive and little chance of escape.

The funny thing is that some of those serfs are so happy to vote for more benefits rather than a solid job or a caree r where they are rewarded for their individual endeavors...... What a sad society we live... Promoting mediocrity like that....


I am in agreement with both comments. 

I will also point out, which with the nearly 300 pages of post may have already been mentioned, that unemployment rates also do not take into account the people whose benefits have expired .
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 05 2013 at 08:33
Originally posted by JJLehto JJLehto wrote:

Thread is dying...I better step in to boost it's demand.

I guess it's difficult to keep alive when the 4 hardcore libertarians around here (Pat, Robert, Anton, Logan) have basically disappeared from this thread. And when the 2 "converts" have expressed how mixed their ideas really are allowing for the intrusion of liberty-killing welfare and socialist considerations into their mindsets. And when there are no new fresh contrarians who can ask questions over and over again. 

I have no idea about China and its economy growth but when you ask about the destination of their exports I guess they all go to Walmart. 

I have a question: the continuous advance of technology is rendering many job positions obsolete. Until what point is it good to always expect advancement in technology that kills thousands of jobs every year? An answer might be "if it makes it easier for the consumer is always better", but what if this destruction of jobs erodes the consumer base to a point where far fewer people have jobs and therefore can buy anything? It's just a totally abstract question that occurred to me after reading an article about disappearing job positions. 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 05 2013 at 08:46
Originally posted by JJLehto JJLehto wrote:

Thread is dying...I better step in to boost it's demand.

Just curious, can anyone explain China's economy to me? Specifically, how as an export driven economy, has it maintained these levels of growth despite the entire world be recessed? I mean where are all these products going?


I think you're placing too much emphasis on the recession.  Despite it, we and many other rich world countries are still running fairly large current account deficits (Germany being a notable exception).
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 05 2013 at 18:04
Not just 300 pages, but third thread! Probably 900-1000 pages in total!

Yeah, the "real" state of the economy is fairly dismal. 

Indeed Teo, but couldn't pass up the demand jokeClown 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 05 2013 at 19:43
China is trying to move to a lower-speed (but still relatively fast) trajectory of growth that will be consumption led.  It will be tricky transition because as per what I read yesterday, it seems Chinese citizens hardly have any social security.  Hence, the long term effect of liberalising financial markets could be to push up benefits and, ultimately, erode their cost advantage.  So by that time, they need to move into more high tech manufacturing like S Korea.  No reason why they can't manage that...we already buy some capital equipment from them.  But they need to time this soft landing well.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 06 2013 at 09:40
Originally posted by The T The T wrote:

I have a question: the continuous advance of technology is rendering many job positions obsolete. Until what point is it good to always expect advancement in technology that kills thousands of jobs every year? An answer might be "if it makes it easier for the consumer is always better", but what if this destruction of jobs erodes the consumer base to a point where far fewer people have jobs and therefore can buy anything? It's just a totally abstract question that occurred to me after reading an article about disappearing job positions. 


Yeah sorry about that. I would love to waste time on here all day, but time is a finite resource and I've sold my soul so that ship has sailed.

It's a question that's been asked (or better yet attack strategy) for a long time. As far as I know, there's little evidence to suggest that technological advancement destroys jobs. It certainly appears to do just that and for perfectly good reasons. Technological advancements cause the job market to shift. Usually you see a skewing from low-wage, entry-level jobs to a more technical field. Because of this it becomes a popular platform for populists to run on, even though the argument as presented (giving our jobs to robots, skynet, blah blah) really isn't true. Unfortunate for those left in the dust of a shifting job market? Yeah probably. Bad for consumers, no.

When looking at these things, try to ignore money sometimes as stupid as that sounds. Ask yourself about scarcity, limited resources, etc. Things can become clearer.
"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 06 2013 at 10:45
Though I agree in principle with what you say Pat, I see (and I might be wrong) a tendency in economic analysis to make a weird distinction between the labor force/job market and the consumers. I see this in the case, for example, of when discussing allegations of miserable wages in Walmart. They may pay low but the consumers benefit from that with cheap prices, the analysis says. Yet, just as in the artificial division of rich and poor as static categories (though nowadays they ARE becoming static), this division is, for me, nonsense. The laborers, the typical "work force" they talk about ARE the consumers. Economists and others make this distinction probably because they exist in a different category, different from white collar/"intelllect"-driven jobs, but it so happens that there are quite more normal laborers and they are quite a huge part of the "consumers" thus any impact in the workforce is an impact on the consumers. 

I would think that a healthy economy where people can prosper (not just the wealthy) requires that even those in the labor force are able to also be "consumers", especially in a consumer-driven economy. But if we make everybody miserable, in the end the only consumers left will be those that are currently rich people. 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 06 2013 at 11:01
The rich eat the fat of the land. When the disenfranchised forcibly put them on a diet then maybe just maybe we stand a chance. 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 06 2013 at 14:07
Originally posted by timothy leary timothy leary wrote:

The rich eat the fat of the land. When the disenfranchised forcibly put them on a diet then maybe just maybe we stand a chance. 
 
The rich and powerful have always controlled things. In the past we called them the Aristocracy and now they are called the Top 1%. Nothing has changed and won't untuil humans grow up and out of the need to have more toys than the next person and develop a conscience.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 06 2013 at 14:18
Originally posted by The T The T wrote:

Though I agree in principle with what you say Pat, I see (and I might be wrong) a tendency in economic analysis to make a weird distinction between the labor force/job market and the consumers. I see this in the case, for example, of when discussing allegations of miserable wages in Walmart. They may pay low but the consumers benefit from that with cheap prices, the analysis says. Yet, just as in the artificial division of rich and poor as static categories (though nowadays they ARE becoming static), this division is, for me, nonsense. The laborers, the typical "work force" they talk about ARE the consumers. Economists and others make this distinction probably because they exist in a different category, different from white collar/"intelllect"-driven jobs, but it so happens that there are quite more normal laborers and they are quite a huge part of the "consumers" thus any impact in the workforce is an impact on the consumers. 

I would think that a healthy economy where people can prosper (not just the wealthy) requires that even those in the labor force are able to also be "consumers", especially in a consumer-driven economy. But if we make everybody miserable, in the end the only consumers left will be those that are currently rich people. 


I don't think (me being obtuse?) that this has much to do with the point I made. But I'm not going to defend the wages that Walmart pays. They've politically leveraged themselves into a completely unnatural market position and consumers think it's the government's job to force them out of it so they're just gonna buy everything they need there anyway.
"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 06 2013 at 14:31
^I understand what you say, and my main reason to bring up the Walmart example (which I agree is complex though I'm not 100% sure they should be able to get away with it) was to point out that in many economic analyses of many different issues (including the technological one I brought about or the Walmart one) "consumers" and "labor force" are seen as two different things when it is implied that jobs being lost or bad wages being paid are one thing and consumers benefiting from more efficiency or low prices is another. I say the universe of consumers is the same as the universe of the lower-paid labor force and the more we drive them to misery the more we will lose actual consumers so in the end only rich people will be able to be consumers and the whole thing will go down the drain. 

Me and my awful analyses Tongue 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 06 2013 at 15:55
No person who does a full time job should have to turn to the gov't for assistance. While the bank CEO makes 25 million a year the bank teller has to get food stamps to supplement their low wages. 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 07 2013 at 01:56
Since JJLehto/Theo craved for a contrarian viewpoint, here's one and it's apt for this forum. It's in the arts that we see the greatest conflict between unfettered markets and, well, social considerations for want of a better word.  In Indian film music, many indigenous instruments like tabla, dholak, harmonium were in vogue for a long time.  With classical music being relegated to an elite but smaller club, the film music scene helped provide a platform where musicians playing these instruments could flourish.  Orchestras with string, brass and woodwind instruments among many others were also employed.  The music was occasionally great and very often mediocre but more to the point, a way of life subsisted and in fact thrived.  Obviously you needed big studios for this so this also meant a lot of money but music being an integral part of film culture, this was not a problem and music was seen as an asset to the film.  

But the arrival of A R Rahman on the scene in the 90s turned the prevailing order upside down.  He operated out of a small self made studio with the computer being his chief instrument.  The well produced sound he obtained changed the face of film music and opened up the field for a new breed of musicians.  However, in the process, musicians playing acoustic instruments were gradually orphaned as composers moved to synthesizers and dumped live instrument recordings.  By the noughties with lifestyles getting increasingly hectic, even the live scene was not enough to bail out the musicians and they began to leave the trade.  

Cut to the present and the audience has begun to get bored of being hammered by digital, 'processed' music and live recording has attained a cult of novelty.  Unfortunately, by now manufacturers of these instruments as well as the musicians have become far fewer in number.  And composers often go to Europe for orchestral recordings.  No problem there, the quality obtained from a symphonic orchestra is far above our local musicians but the need never existed before.  The fact is a lot of know how has been lost through the upheavals of the last 20 or so years.

Now why am I filling in all these details?  Because in India govt only pays lip service to the arts. I believe opera for instance is funded by the govt in Europe and that seems to have (naturally) attracted a lot of criticism in these recessionary times.  I understand the consequences of subsiding something that is unproductive but at the same time I would like to submit that humans themselves cannot adjust with the same pace as dynamic markets.  If listeners begin to crave a certain sound that has died out, you can't magically pluck it out of the free market.  A revival of such skills and craft can take a long time.  Neither Rahman nor listeners were really at fault in the above example. It is the govt that has to prioritise and decide whether something is indispensable in defining a nation's identity and therefore is worth preserving.  And they don't need to make a unilateral decision and force it on the people; use democratic means and hold a referendum.  Our music is defined to a large extent by our indigenous instruments.  Left to market forces, they will die out and give way to a westernised approach.  Whether or not that is a good thing can be debated all day long, but if once it is decided that this does define our identity, then a laissez faire approach is insufficient to defend it.   


Edited by rogerthat - December 07 2013 at 02:04
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 07 2013 at 08:36
I think India has other problems it should worry about that doesn't include a lack of classical musicians. I find it hard to believe that paying for something that people don't want in case they want it in the future so that it can be given to them at the future date immediately is a good way. Doubly so in a country which has hunger indices worse than Ethiopia in some areas.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 07 2013 at 08:40
Originally posted by The T The T wrote:

^I understand what you say, and my main reason to bring up the Walmart example (which I agree is complex though I'm not 100% sure they should be able to get away with it) was to point out that in many economic analyses of many different issues (including the technological one I brought about or the Walmart one) "consumers" and "labor force" are seen as two different things when it is implied that jobs being lost or bad wages being paid are one thing and consumers benefiting from more efficiency or low prices is another. I say the universe of consumers is the same as the universe of the lower-paid labor force and the more we drive them to misery the more we will lose actual consumers so in the end only rich people will be able to be consumers and the whole thing will go down the drain. 

Me and my awful analyses Tongue 


I think what I was trying to say is that technological advancement tends to destroy low paying jobs which makes things better for the consumer. It opens up higher paying jobs for those that can acquire the necessary technical skills.
"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 07 2013 at 08:57
Originally posted by Equality 7-2521 Equality 7-2521 wrote:

I think India has other problems it should worry about that doesn't include a lack of classical musicians. I find it hard to believe that paying for something that people don't want in case they want it in the future so that it can be given to them at the future date immediately is a good way. Doubly so in a country which has hunger indices worse than Ethiopia in some areas.

And it has had these problems for years and years.  There would be more than enough money to spare to support the small number of classical musicians if there was less corruption and wastage in the administration.  Just because a country has a large population of poor doesn't mean it is tribal or lacks its own culture.  Anyway, congratulations on missing the larger issue, which is that this so called creative destruction business does not have a healthy influence on arts.  The idea of destroying something out of existence itself makes no sense when applied to arts.  What is the need to abandon one set of instruments and the skills that go with them just because another have temporarily come into vogue; they can very well co exist.  They used to co exist before speculating on the future availability or lack thereof of crude oil became a way of life for some people (because earlier it didn't take a lot of money for an ordinary man to survive and carry on with his life).  I don't see why self same people shouldn't also pay a little to the preservation of a culture on which their tactics exert severe cost pressure.       
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 07 2013 at 09:11
Nothing is destroyed. People's tastes shift. The market adapts. You're taking something beautiful about capitalism and trying to portray it as a negative. Open markets are part of the reason that musical boundaries have been able to pushed so far in the past century. 
"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 07 2013 at 09:25
Originally posted by Equality 7-2521 Equality 7-2521 wrote:

Nothing is destroyed. People's tastes shift. The market adapts. You're taking something beautiful about capitalism and trying to portray it as a negative. Open markets are part of the reason that musical boundaries have been able to pushed so far in the past century. 

Er, the point is human behaviour cannot keep pace with the speed with which the market's momentum changes.  If the know how involving in building and playing an instrument is lost, that is destruction.  It is not so easy as somebody wants it tomorrow, therefore the market will make it available again.  The market can do nought about something that is lost because a lot of these things are handed down from father to son through generations of craftsmen and not scientifically recorded.   There is nothing beautiful about destruction unless you are the destroyer in question in which case you don't bear the brunt and rather reap the harvest.  

Further, you cannot fit music to adapt to the tastes of every person in the audience.  Do you think there are no people left in India who listen to music revolving around indigenous instruments?  Hardly.  There are a large number of them and they keep listening over and over to old records because the market is unable to offer them what they want.  With a little bit of support, perhaps musicians who did have the know how to do so would have made the kind of music they sought.  Markets do not apply as perfectly to arts as you seem to think.  The belief in free markets and perfect competition fatally underestimates the sheer cost of making and acquiring instruments, recording music in a studio or mounting a live concert.  It is too cost intensive relative to the typical returns a musician gets to respond adequately to dynamic market forces.  

You may think a musician getting deprived of a livelihood because the marketing arsenal of big labels blitzed him out of the limelight reflects the beauty of capitalism but I can only reflect on what an unfair and discouraging a climate it provides to artists.  By the evidence of the last five decades - the meat of the record making business - the market is good at remembering artists who brought them the big dough rather than artists who progressed the arts.  The world is aware of the names of Debussy, Stravinsky or Schoenberg getting up to  the 1950s but post that the centre of attention is focused on Elvis Priesley, Beatles, Michael Jackson, Madonna, Celine Dion.  Wonder what's next up.    


Edited by rogerthat - December 07 2013 at 09:42
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 07 2013 at 09:30
IIn fact, to further extend the logic on an individual to individual basis, the arts are extremely risky business with unreliable value perceptions so that a wise man may not seek to sell art to make a living in the market.  Ergo, it follows that the free market is simply incompatible with artistic pursuit.  An artist only acts on his impulses and hopes to please, he does not manufacture products for mass consumption.  Left to fend for themselves, most artists will eventually be dealt a bad hand and that is indeed what happens to most artists even as the world celebrates the lucky few who get to be millionaires.

This is an issue that Aldous Huxley raised in Brave New World, so I will not claim any credit for following this line of reasoning.  There are some intangible but valuable aspects of human life that may not fit into the market scheme of things. In that case, we have to question whether we should put the market imperative ahead of everything else or we have to make an effort to preserve certain aspects of our culture.  What I have said about one style of art throwing out the other can be extended to the arts themselves.  I don't think music labels make a lot of money anymore and some have surely been bleeding over the last few years.  It is conceivable that they too will shut down in the not so distant future. What then happens to music itself?  In the free market, music or cinema are not arts, they are just products in the entertainment industry.   There is no space for outrageous artistic endeavour without commercial sense in the free market.  And arts is just one example.  What about wildlife preservation?  There may be no ROI in that endeavour but is it not an unquestionably humane endeavour to seek to protect innocent animals from hunters?  Or should we just roll the dice and pray to God that the number of people whose free will permits them to preserve an endangered species will always outstrip the numbers of those whose free will permits them to mercilessly take their lives? Why is the second option more convincing?

Pl understand that as a practicing accountant who swears by 'tallying' the balance sheet, I do understand how the market works and why it is needed.  So I am not a leftie railing at profit motive and the creation of wealth by themselves. I just don't wholeheartedly endorse or embrace the free markets because I recognise that there are some walks of life that are not compatible with them. I recognise that taxes and deficits are a mess but so are the free markets.       


Edited by rogerthat - December 07 2013 at 10:07
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