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timothy leary ![]() Forum Senior Member ![]() ![]() Joined: December 29 2005 Location: Lilliwaup, Wa. Status: Offline Points: 5319 |
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^ It is pretty straightforward, mutated strains of Pertussis are being looked at for having origins in the pertussis vaccine
http://www.pediatricsupersite.com/view.aspx?rid=61852 |
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Equality 7-2521 ![]() Forum Senior Member ![]() ![]() Joined: August 11 2005 Location: Philly Status: Offline Points: 15784 |
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That's just the nature of science. You see health companies that claim things like, "Newton's first law states that a body in motion stays in motion. So the secret to a long life is large amounts of exercise to ensure that your body keeps moving" Results are going to be misinterpreted. A lot of junk research really needs to be cleaned up, and the duplicitous nature of the FDA approval process really needs to be fixed as well. |
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"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "
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Epignosis ![]() Special Collaborator ![]() ![]() Honorary Collaborator Joined: December 30 2007 Location: Raeford, NC Status: Online Points: 32552 |
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According to a recent poll, one out of two people believe dredg's El Cielo is better than Ritual's The Hemulic Voluntary Band.
Edited by Epignosis - November 26 2011 at 16:54 |
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KoS ![]() Forum Senior Member ![]() ![]() Joined: May 17 2005 Location: Los Angeles Status: Offline Points: 16310 |
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![]() Also, Dean has the appropriate signature for a lot of the replies here. |
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Equality 7-2521 ![]() Forum Senior Member ![]() ![]() Joined: August 11 2005 Location: Philly Status: Offline Points: 15784 |
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Well the methodology there is totally out of whack!
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"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "
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Dean ![]() Special Collaborator ![]() ![]() Retired Admin and Amateur Layabout Joined: May 13 2007 Location: Europe Status: Offline Points: 37575 |
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timothy leary ![]() Forum Senior Member ![]() ![]() Joined: December 29 2005 Location: Lilliwaup, Wa. Status: Offline Points: 5319 |
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Our findings suggest that the use of the acellular vaccine may be one factor contributing to these genetic changes.”
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Ivan_Melgar_M ![]() Special Collaborator ![]() Honorary Collaborator Joined: April 27 2004 Location: Peru Status: Offline Points: 19557 |
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It will rain tonight in Lime (never rains in Lima) because I agree with Dean ![]() The article clearly says:
The reason why there are more cases is because the actual vaccine is less effective (or even ineffective) against this new strains, by no means says that the vaccine cause the mutation. And this is more evident in the las paragraph:
Source: Pediatric Super Site http://www.pediatricsupersite.com/view.aspx?rid=61852 Iván Edited by Ivan_Melgar_M - November 26 2011 at 19:15 |
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Dean ![]() Special Collaborator ![]() ![]() Retired Admin and Amateur Layabout Joined: May 13 2007 Location: Europe Status: Offline Points: 37575 |
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Yup - that's the way to misunderstand and then misrepresent an article - partial quoting. The missing part of the quote gives the explanation:
“A key issue is that the whole cell vaccine contained hundreds of antigens, which gave broad protection against many strains of pertussis,” Ruiting Lan, of the University of New South Wales School of Biotechnology and Biomolecular Sciences, said in a press release. “But the acellular vaccine contains only three to five antigens."
Which means that (as I said in my previous post) the vaccine is not creating the mutation, it is simply not killing that particular strain because the acellular vaccine is less effective than the whole cell vaccine it replaced.
If anything, what that article shows is that vaccines are effective, and moreover, the "stronger" they are the better they are.
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timothy leary ![]() Forum Senior Member ![]() ![]() Joined: December 29 2005 Location: Lilliwaup, Wa. Status: Offline Points: 5319 |
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In November 2010, BMC Genomics published “Comparative genomics of prevaccination and modern Bordetella pertussis strains” by Marieke J Bart, et al. This paper focuses on “how B. pertussis has adapted to vaccination”(3). That leaves little room for question about the issue.
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timothy leary ![]() Forum Senior Member ![]() ![]() Joined: December 29 2005 Location: Lilliwaup, Wa. Status: Offline Points: 5319 |
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An important issue is whether vaccination has selected for the ptxP3 strains. Several lines of evidence support this contention. First, ptxP3 strains were not found in the prevaccination era. Furthermore, although ptxP3 strains were found in high frequencies in vaccinated populations in the 1990s, they were not detected in Senegal, where vaccination was introduced in 1987 (32). Several studies have provided evidence that increased host immunity may select for higher virulence. Vaccination against 2 avian viruses, the Marek disease virus, and the infectious bursal disease virus, were associated with the emergence of more virulent strains (33). An important role of host immunity in selecting for virulence is also suggested by the co-evolution of the myxomatosis virus and rabbits (34). Furthermore, immune pressure was shown to select for more virulent Plasmodium chabaudi parasites in mice (35). Based on mathematical modeling, vaccines designed to reduce pathogen growth rate and/or toxicity may result in the evolution of pathogens with higher levels of virulence
Explain these findings?
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Ivan_Melgar_M ![]() Special Collaborator ![]() Honorary Collaborator Joined: April 27 2004 Location: Peru Status: Offline Points: 19557 |
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Of course it's a risk, in the 60's penicillin cured almost all infections and today is nearly ineffective. But the problem is that without the vaccine the vulgar small pox or polio would had killed millions if not billions of people, if the virus mutates, it's necessary to find more effective vaccines.. The virus will evolve and so the vaccines must evolve, being that with or without vaccine, the virus will mutate sooner or later, look at AIDS, until today we don't have a vaccine and at leas 2 different strains with 14 different sub-types of the disease but no vaccine for any, ![]() But if we can find a vaccine for HV1, would be easier to find vaccines for new strains, and in the meanwhile, millions would had survived Iván |
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Dean ![]() Special Collaborator ![]() ![]() Retired Admin and Amateur Layabout Joined: May 13 2007 Location: Europe Status: Offline Points: 37575 |
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Virus evolution is not goal-seeking - that implies planned intent on behalf of the virus and that is impossible.
It does seem that some analysis borders on Lamarckian in its interpretation and shows a poor understanding of the process of evolution (at least by the choice of phrasing they use implying that the virus is goal-seeking in its evolution).
The quote answers its own questions - virus evolve with their hosts - as the host evolves to become more resistant to the virus only mutated viruses that the new mutated defense system is ineffective against will survive. This process happens with or without vaccines and is called Natural Selection
A vaccine is a bulletproof vest that stops .38 calibre bullets but is ineffective against a .44 calibre - all manner of scenarios can be created around that regarding the frequency of use of a 44 magnum in firearm related deaths but it does not alter the fact that more people would be dead without bulletproof vests than with. Edited by Dean - November 27 2011 at 04:31 |
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Dean ![]() Special Collaborator ![]() ![]() Retired Admin and Amateur Layabout Joined: May 13 2007 Location: Europe Status: Offline Points: 37575 |
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Take a population of 30 and a virus that takes 1 day to infect a host.
Introduce a virulent strain of the virus that can kill in a day into that population then on day one 1 infected host can infect another host, on day two the first host is dead and cannot infect any more, but the second host can now infect one more person. The infection and death rates are the same and after 30 days the whole population is dead.
Now take another population of 30 people and introduce a less virulent strain that takes 5 days to kill the host: on day one the first host can also infect 1 person, on day two there are now 2 hosts alive and they can infect 2 more people, on day three those 4 are still alive and can infect 4 more, day four and 8 are alive can infect 8 more, day five the original host dies but 15 are alive to infect 15 more - but there are only 14 uninfected people left in the population so now the whole population is infected and in 5 more days they will all be dead.
So with a more virulent virus and the whole poplution is dead in 30 days, a less virulent one and they are all dead in 10 days.
Introduce both strains into the same population and the effect of the more virulent strain is lessened because it cannot propagate fast enough - the less virulent one will infect more people quicker, blocking the infection rate of the more virulent one - if it could not find a host to infect it would itself die within one day.
Because the more virulent strain is slower in propgating it cannot jump to a new population if those populations were separated geographically by one days travel of the host, so if we had two populations one with the less virulent strain and one with both, the more virulent strain would not appear in the first population at all, ever. But in both scenarios everyone would be dead within 10 days.
Now vaccinate both populations with a vaccine that kills the less virulent strain - the one with both strains will still have the more virulent strain and will kill 30 people in 30 days, but the "Senegal" population would not show any deaths at all.
/edit: Now extrapolate that onto a far larger population, say 250 million people - in 30 days the more virulent virus will have killed 30 people and infected 1 more - it would take over 680,000 years to kill everyone; however in 30 days the less virulent strain would have killed half of them an infected the other half - 5 days later they would all be dead. More virulent does not equal worse. Edited by Dean - November 27 2011 at 07:20 |
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Slartibartfast ![]() Collaborator ![]() ![]() Honorary Collaborator / In Memoriam Joined: April 29 2006 Location: Atlantais Status: Offline Points: 29630 |
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Released date are often when it it impacted you but recorded dates are when it really happened...
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toroddfuglesteg ![]() Forum Senior Member ![]() ![]() Retired Joined: March 04 2008 Location: Retirement Home Status: Offline Points: 3658 |
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The Wales manager Gary Speed has died. I am numbed and physically sick by the news and the way he died (if BBC is correct). The football/soccer world is stunned, shocked and bewildered by this tragedy. Sorry, but this sad news is far beyond belief. |
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lazland ![]() Prog Reviewer ![]() ![]() Joined: October 28 2008 Location: Wales Status: Offline Points: 13780 |
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Absolutely staggering news, and i am with you here Torodd. Sky News is reporting that he hanged himself, at the age of 42, leaving behind a wife & two children. Wow. It's not even as if the side were doing badly - he seemed to have transformed the national team. Sad beyond belief.
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Enhance your life. Get down to www.lazland.org
Now also broadcasting on www.progzilla.com Every Saturday, 4.00 p.m. UK time! |
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Snow Dog ![]() Special Collaborator ![]() ![]() Honorary Collaborator Joined: March 23 2005 Location: Caerdydd Status: Offline Points: 32995 |
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I was shocked when I found this out this morning. Still am. A genuinely poular nice guy with a new jiob and good looking prospects. WHY?
I don't understand.
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lazland ![]() Prog Reviewer ![]() ![]() Joined: October 28 2008 Location: Wales Status: Offline Points: 13780 |
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My son and I talked to him earlier this year at Celtic Manor. He was taking part in the pro-celebrity warm up match for the Welsh Open. He was genuinely nice, and my son was thrilled. I can only say that there must be something we are unaware of.
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Enhance your life. Get down to www.lazland.org
Now also broadcasting on www.progzilla.com Every Saturday, 4.00 p.m. UK time! |
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Snow Dog ![]() Special Collaborator ![]() ![]() Honorary Collaborator Joined: March 23 2005 Location: Caerdydd Status: Offline Points: 32995 |
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There is either much more to this than it seems or underneath he was a terribly depressed sad guy. Hard to believe the latter but it just may be so. People who hide these things the best maybe suffer most.
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