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timothy leary View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote timothy leary Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 26 2011 at 16:41
^ It is pretty straightforward, mutated strains of Pertussis are being looked at for having origins in the pertussis vaccine

http://www.pediatricsupersite.com/view.aspx?rid=61852

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Equality 7-2521 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Equality 7-2521 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 26 2011 at 16:45
Originally posted by Dean Dean wrote:

Originally posted by Equality 7-2521 Equality 7-2521 wrote:

Originally posted by Dean Dean wrote:

But please, I mean real science, proper medical studies, actual facts and figures, not anti-vaccine propaganda, I can read that anywhere (in fact I can read this particular quote on every anti-vaccine site going).


I'm not calling every vaccine junk, dangerous, and useless, but honestly the methodology you find in a lot of medical journals is just atrocious. It's one of the main reasons that you're seeing universities instituting biological mathematics majors. Professionals are starting to come around to this fact too.
That's encouraging - perhaps more reliable data will result - too many (all?) of all these anti-vaccine scares are the result of bad analysis of poorly collated data. However, I fear that regardless of how well the data is processed, too many people will still misunderstand the results.


That's just the nature of science. You see health companies that claim things like, "Newton's first law states that a body in motion stays in motion. So the secret to a long life is large amounts of exercise to ensure that your body keeps moving"

Results are going to be misinterpreted. A lot of junk research really needs to be cleaned up, and the duplicitous nature of the FDA approval process really needs to be fixed as well.
"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Epignosis Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 26 2011 at 16:48
According to a recent poll, one out of two people believe dredg's El Cielo is better than Ritual's The Hemulic Voluntary Band.

Edited by Epignosis - November 26 2011 at 16:54
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote KoS Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 26 2011 at 16:52


Also, Dean has the appropriate signature for a lot of the replies here.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Equality 7-2521 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 26 2011 at 16:52
Well the methodology there is totally out of whack!
"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dean Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 26 2011 at 17:03
Originally posted by timothy leary timothy leary wrote:

^ It is pretty straightforward, mutated strains of Pertussis are being looked at for having origins in the pertussis vaccine

http://www.pediatricsupersite.com/view.aspx?rid=61852

That's poor interpretation of that that linked article says, because it doesn't say that at all. All viruses mutate resulting in many strains of the virus. Any one vaccine will be effective againsts some of those strains and less effective agaisnt others. Those that get passed the vaccine are not stronger or worse, they are just immune to that particular vaccine. The vaccine under examination contained fewer antigens than the previous vaccine that had been used and so filtered less strains (mutants) of the virus resulting in more getting passed. The vaccine did not contribute to the mutation, nor did the virus mutate in response to the vaccine - the virus would have mutated with or without the vaccine being present - all the vaccine did was it just fail to filter out that mutation.
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timothy leary View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote timothy leary Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 26 2011 at 19:03
 Our findings suggest that the use of the acellular vaccine may be one factor contributing to these genetic changes.”
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Ivan_Melgar_M Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 26 2011 at 19:12
Originally posted by Dean Dean wrote:

Originally posted by timothy leary timothy leary wrote:

^ It is pretty straightforward, mutated strains of Pertussis are being looked at for having origins in the pertussis vaccine

http://www.pediatricsupersite.com/view.aspx?rid=61852

That's poor interpretation of that that linked article says, because it doesn't say that at all. All viruses mutate resulting in many strains of the virus. Any one vaccine will be effective againsts some of those strains and less effective agaisnt others. Those that get passed the vaccine are not stronger or worse, they are just immune to that particular vaccine. The vaccine under examination contained fewer antigens than the previous vaccine that had been used and so filtered less strains (mutants) of the virus resulting in more getting passed. The vaccine did not contribute to the mutation, nor did the virus mutate in response to the vaccine - the virus would have mutated with or without the vaccine being present - all the vaccine did was it just fail to filter out that mutation.

It will rain tonight in Lime (never rains in Lima) because I agree with Dean LOL

The article clearly says:

Quote A team of Australian researchers found for the first time that two of the most common strains of the Bordetella pertussis bacteria in Australia have undergone significant genetic changes since 1997.
Those mutations coincided with changes to the type of vaccine used in Australia and with apparent increases in the number of cases of Australians contracting the highly contagious respiratory disease.


The reason why there are more cases is because the actual vaccine is less effective  (or even ineffective) against this new strains, by no means says that the vaccine cause the mutation.

And this is more evident in the las paragraph:

Quote Their findings suggested that although vaccination remains effective against some strains circulating in Australia, it may no longer protect against two strains in particular — MT27 and MT70.


Iván




Edited by Ivan_Melgar_M - November 26 2011 at 19:15
            
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dean Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 26 2011 at 19:34
Originally posted by timothy leary timothy leary wrote:

 Our findings suggest that the use of the acellular vaccine may be one factor contributing to these genetic changes.”
Yup - that's the way to misunderstand and then misrepresent an article - partial quoting. The missing part of the quote gives the explanation:
 
“A key issue is that the whole cell vaccine contained hundreds of antigens, which gave broad protection against many strains of pertussis,” Ruiting Lan, of the University of New South Wales School of Biotechnology and Biomolecular Sciences, said in a press release. “But the acellular vaccine contains only three to five antigens." 
 
Which means that (as I said in my previous post) the vaccine is not creating the mutation, it is simply not killing that particular strain because the acellular vaccine is less effective than the whole cell vaccine it replaced.
 
If anything, what that article shows is that vaccines are effective, and moreover, the "stronger" they are the better they are.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote timothy leary Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 26 2011 at 20:52
In November 2010, BMC Genomics published “Comparative genomics of prevaccination and modern Bordetella pertussis strains” by Marieke J Bart, et al. This paper focuses on “how B. pertussis has adapted to vaccination”(3). That leaves little room for question about the issue. The new strains of B. pertussis have developed in response to vaccinations for whooping cough
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote timothy leary Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 26 2011 at 21:00
An important issue is whether vaccination has selected for the ptxP3 strains. Several lines of evidence support this contention. First, ptxP3 strains were not found in the prevaccination era. Furthermore, although ptxP3 strains were found in high frequencies in vaccinated populations in the 1990s, they were not detected in Senegal, where vaccination was introduced in 1987 (32). Several studies have provided evidence that increased host immunity may select for higher virulence. Vaccination against 2 avian viruses, the Marek disease virus, and the infectious bursal disease virus, were associated with the emergence of more virulent strains (33). An important role of host immunity in selecting for virulence is also suggested by the co-evolution of the myxomatosis virus and rabbits (34). Furthermore, immune pressure was shown to select for more virulent Plasmodium chabaudi parasites in mice (35). Based on mathematical modeling, vaccines designed to reduce pathogen growth rate and/or toxicity may result in the evolution of pathogens with higher levels of virulence

Explain these findings?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Ivan_Melgar_M Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 26 2011 at 21:42
Originally posted by timothy leary timothy leary wrote:

An important issue is whether vaccination has selected for the ptxP3 strains. Several lines of evidence support this contention. First, ptxP3 strains were not found in the prevaccination era. Furthermore, although ptxP3 strains were found in high frequencies in vaccinated populations in the 1990s, they were not detected in Senegal, where vaccination was introduced in 1987 (32). Several studies have provided evidence that increased host immunity may select for higher virulence. Vaccination against 2 avian viruses, the Marek disease virus, and the infectious bursal disease virus, were associated with the emergence of more virulent strains (33). An important role of host immunity in selecting for virulence is also suggested by the co-evolution of the myxomatosis virus and rabbits (34). Furthermore, immune pressure was shown to select for more virulent Plasmodium chabaudi parasites in mice (35). Based on mathematical modeling, vaccines designed to reduce pathogen growth rate and/or toxicity may result in the evolution of pathogens with higher levels of virulence

Explain these findings?

Of course it's a risk, in the 60's penicillin cured almost all infections  and today is nearly ineffective.

But the problem is that without the vaccine  the vulgar small pox or polio would had killed millions if not billions of people, if the virus mutates, it's necessary to find more effective vaccines..

The virus will evolve and so the vaccines must evolve, being that with or without vaccine, the virus will mutate sooner or later, look at AIDS, until today we don't have a vaccine and at leas 2 different strains with 14 different sub-types of the disease but no vaccine for any, 

HIV types, groups and subtypes

But if we can find a vaccine for HV1, would be easier to find vaccines for new strains, and in the meanwhile, millions would had survived

Iván


            
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dean Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 27 2011 at 04:10
Originally posted by timothy leary timothy leary wrote:

In November 2010, BMC Genomics published “Comparative genomics of prevaccination and modern Bordetella pertussis strains” by Marieke J Bart, et al. This paper focuses on “how B. pertussis has adapted to vaccination”(3). That leaves little room for question about the issue. The new strains of B. pertussis have developed in response to vaccinations for whooping cough
Virus evolution is not goal-seeking - that implies planned intent on behalf of the virus and that is impossible.
 
Originally posted by timothy leary timothy leary wrote:

An important issue is whether vaccination has selected for the ptxP3 strains. Several lines of evidence support this contention. First, ptxP3 strains were not found in the prevaccination era. Furthermore, although ptxP3 strains were found in high frequencies in vaccinated populations in the 1990s, they were not detected in Senegal, where vaccination was introduced in 1987 (32). Several studies have provided evidence that increased host immunity may select for higher virulence. Vaccination against 2 avian viruses, the Marek disease virus, and the infectious bursal disease virus, were associated with the emergence of more virulent strains (33). An important role of host immunity in selecting for virulence is also suggested by the co-evolution of the myxomatosis virus and rabbits (34). Furthermore, immune pressure was shown to select for more virulent Plasmodium chabaudi parasites in mice (35). Based on mathematical modeling, vaccines designed to reduce pathogen growth rate and/or toxicity may result in the evolution of pathogens with higher levels of virulence

Explain these findings?
It does seem that some analysis borders on Lamarckian in its interpretation and shows a poor understanding of the process of evolution (at least by the choice of phrasing they use implying that the virus is goal-seeking in its evolution).
 
The quote answers its own questions - virus evolve with their hosts - as the host evolves to become more resistant to the virus only mutated viruses that the new mutated defense system is ineffective against will survive. This process happens with or without vaccines and is called Natural Selection
 
A vaccine is a bulletproof vest that stops .38 calibre bullets but is ineffective against a .44 calibre - all manner of scenarios can be created around that regarding the frequency of use of a 44 magnum in firearm related deaths but it does not alter the fact that more people would be dead without bulletproof vests than with.


Edited by Dean - November 27 2011 at 04:31
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dean Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 27 2011 at 06:18
Originally posted by timothy leary timothy leary wrote:

First, ptxP3 strains were not found in the prevaccination era. Furthermore, although ptxP3 strains were found in high frequencies in vaccinated populations in the 1990s, they were not detected in Senegal, where vaccination was introduced in 1987 (32).
To explain this I need to explain how viruses propagate through a poplulation.
 
Take a population of 30 and a virus that takes 1 day to infect a host.
 
Introduce a virulent strain of the virus that can kill in a day into that population then on day one 1 infected host can infect another host, on day two the first host is dead and cannot infect any more, but the second host can now infect one more person. The infection and death rates are the same and after 30 days the whole population is dead.
 
Now take another population of 30 people and introduce a less virulent strain that takes 5 days to kill the host: on day one the first host can also infect 1 person, on day two there are now 2 hosts alive and they can infect 2 more people, on day three those 4 are still alive and can infect 4 more, day four and 8 are alive can infect 8 more, day five the original host dies but 15 are alive to infect 15 more - but there are only 14 uninfected people left in the population so now the whole population is infected and in 5 more days they will all be dead.
 
So with a more virulent virus and the whole poplution is dead in 30 days, a less virulent one and they are all dead in 10 days.
 
Introduce both strains into the same population and the effect of the more virulent strain is lessened because it cannot propagate fast enough  - the less virulent one will infect more people quicker, blocking the infection rate of the more virulent one - if it could not find a host to infect it would itself die within one day.
 
Because the more virulent strain is slower in propgating it cannot jump to a new population if those populations were separated geographically by one days travel of the host, so if we had two populations one with the less virulent strain and one with both, the more virulent strain would not appear in the first population at all, ever. But in both scenarios everyone would be dead within 10 days.
 
Now vaccinate both populations with a vaccine that kills the less virulent strain - the one with both strains will still have the more virulent strain and will kill 30 people in 30 days, but the "Senegal" population would not show any deaths at all.
 
 
 
/edit: Now extrapolate that onto a far larger population, say 250 million people - in 30 days the more virulent virus will have killed 30 people and infected 1 more - it would take over 680,000 years to kill everyone; however in 30 days the less virulent strain would have killed half of them an infected the other half - 5 days later they would all be dead. More virulent does not equal worse.
 


Edited by Dean - November 27 2011 at 07:20
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Slartibartfast Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 27 2011 at 07:21
Released date are often when it it impacted you but recorded dates are when it really happened...

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote toroddfuglesteg Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 27 2011 at 07:34

The Wales manager Gary Speed has died. I am numbed and physically sick by the news and the way he died (if BBC is correct). The football/soccer world is stunned, shocked and bewildered by this tragedy. 

Sorry, but this sad news is far beyond belief. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote lazland Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 27 2011 at 11:19
Originally posted by toroddfuglesteg toroddfuglesteg wrote:

The Wales manager Gary Speed has died. I am numbed and physically sick by the news and the way he died (if BBC is correct). The football/soccer world is stunned, shocked and bewildered by this tragedy. 

Sorry, but this sad news is far beyond belief. 


Absolutely staggering news, and i am with you here Torodd.

Sky News is reporting that he hanged himself, at the age of 42, leaving behind a wife & two children.

Wow.

It's not even as if the side were doing badly - he seemed to have transformed the national team.

Sad beyond belief.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Snow Dog Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 27 2011 at 11:30
I was shocked when I found this out this morning. Still am. A genuinely poular nice guy with a new jiob and good looking prospects. WHY?

I don't understand.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote lazland Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 27 2011 at 11:36
Originally posted by Snow Dog Snow Dog wrote:

I was shocked when I found this out this morning. Still am. A genuinely poular nice guy with a new jiob and good looking prospects. WHY?

I don't understand.

My son and I talked to him earlier this year at Celtic Manor. He was taking part in the pro-celebrity warm up match for the Welsh Open. He was genuinely nice, and my son was thrilled.

I can only say that there must be something we are unaware of.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Snow Dog Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: November 27 2011 at 12:06
Originally posted by lazland lazland wrote:

Originally posted by Snow Dog Snow Dog wrote:

I was shocked when I found this out this morning. Still am. A genuinely poular nice guy with a new jiob and good looking prospects. WHY?

I don't understand.

My son and I talked to him earlier this year at Celtic Manor. He was taking part in the pro-celebrity warm up match for the Welsh Open. He was genuinely nice, and my son was thrilled.

I can only say that there must be something we are unaware of.

There is either much more to this than it seems or underneath he was a terribly depressed sad guy. Hard to believe the latter but it just may be so. People who hide these things the best maybe suffer most.
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