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Atavachron
Special Collaborator
Honorary Collaborator
Joined: September 30 2006
Location: Pearland
Status: Offline
Points: 65306
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Posted: June 24 2011 at 22:23 |
Evolver wrote:
Dean wrote:
The one thing that will not disappear is progress. |
But not it's opposite, Congress. |
good one
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Henry Plainview
Forum Senior Member
Joined: May 26 2008
Location: Declined
Status: Offline
Points: 16715
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Posted: June 24 2011 at 23:09 |
Evolver wrote:
Dean wrote:
The one thing that will not disappear is progress. |
But not it's opposite, Congress. |
At first this made me angry, but then I realized this old old joke is perfectly appropriate for this thread.
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if you own a sodastream i hate you
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Sean Trane
Special Collaborator
Prog Folk
Joined: April 29 2004
Location: Heart of Europe
Status: Offline
Points: 20301
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Posted: June 25 2011 at 03:45 |
Dean wrote:
The one thing that will not disappear is progress. |
we probably don't have the same definition of what progress is... at least what I'd consider positive progress
AFAIC, it's already dead
topographicbroadways wrote:
Privacy is more at risk with Facebook etc. now, but as long as you're careful you can keep information safe |
If Facebook was the only issue about loss of privacy, I wouldn't be worried a second about this issue
Because you choose to belong to that sh*t....
Privacy is simply long gone. ... electronic chips on your cards (ID, health insurance, bank card, shopping-fidelity card, member cards, cell-phine SIM cards) have buried privacy a long time ago... they knoweverything about you!!
Dean wrote:
The one thing that will not disappear is progress. |
we probably don't have the same definition of what progress is... at least what I'd consider positive progress
AFAIC, it's already dead
topographicbroadways wrote:
Privacy is more at risk with Facebook etc. now, but as long as you're careful you can keep information safe
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If Facebook was the only issue about loss of privacy, I wouldn't be worried a second about this issue
Because you choose to belong to that sh*t....
Privacy is simply long gone. ... electronic chips on your cards (ID, health insurance, bank card, shopping-fidelity card, member cards) have buried privacy a long time ago
Try to disappear anywhere on the planet.... unless you're ready to live like an escaped prisoner on the ruin (and you won't do that for long), it's become damn near impossibe
Equality 7-2521 wrote:
The idea that music will die is ridiculous. The list itself is pretty ridiculous too because it implies we should care about all of these things it claims will disappear.
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Obviously you're more suited to live in the XXIInd or XXIIIrd century than most of us.... At least in your idealistic views of the future...
I may not care for one or two of these issues (TV for example) on that list, but most of them are indeed kind of worrysome if they should really disappear...
I won't even spend time explaining you why you should care about some of them, (I've never seen/read you to be convince by someone about some issue once you're set in your views), because I see it as useless...
but: just imagine that we actually lose all of the electronic technology and the power to control it (beit some kind of virus or a totalitarian regime) that rules our life today, and even how much more dependant we'll be on it in the next few decades... Just one step too far or simply a fart in the wrong direction or at sommeone you should,n't have said no to.... all hell will let loose on you, with very few hopes to get away from it, rtegardless whether you're innocent or guilty ... and the chances of you being on the "good side" of that power-fence will be highly unlikely - especially if you hang around on sites like this one and waste time on it (like most of us do), instead of developping your power-career
f**k man, I'm glad I'm way past my Trane isotope half-life , because I'm really not optimistic about the future of mankind and his private life... I'm not curious to see how it will turn out either.... and I care even less to live that future that awaits mankind....
I'll just enoy the national postal services and the paper newspapers while they still exists
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let's just stay above the moral melee prefer the sink to the gutter keep our sand-castle virtues content to be a doer as well as a thinker, prefer lifting our pen rather than un-sheath our sword
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Dean
Special Collaborator
Retired Admin and Amateur Layabout
Joined: May 13 2007
Location: Europe
Status: Offline
Points: 37575
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Posted: June 25 2011 at 05:00 |
Sean Trane wrote:
Dean wrote:
The one thing that will not disappear is progress. |
we probably don't have the same definition of what progress is... at least what I'd consider positive progress
AFAIC, it's already dead
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There is only one definition of progress - it just means to move forward (in time), so views of positive and negative progress are in the main subjective and dependant upon the destination of that forward movement being somewhere you want to be. Progress in that sense is an inevitability - just as putting one foot in front of the other and shifting your body-weight to that leading foot will inexorably result in forward movement. Progress can never die, it can just result in a change you like, don't like or don't give a hoot about (then, indifference is as likely to permit progress as it is to halt it).
I have conjectured a number of times that invention is in decline, but invention does not fuel progress as much as innovation does: Apple did not invent any of the products they sell, they innovated previous inventions in their application, how we perceive them and how we use them. All the "progress" that may (or may not) result in these 9 things (plus a myriad of others not listed) disappearing is an inevitability of invention finding an application through innovation - as long as mankind exists to find those applications technical progress will continue unabated. So while I believe that invention is in decline, innovation is not - a missile is just a spear with an engine after all.
Cloud computing is where networks started back in the 1950s & 1960s, be that a central computer linked by dumb terminals, or a network of intelligent terminals sharing processing over a wide geographic area, the concept is as old as computing itself and the Internet grew from that, married to the pre-existing telecommunications networks and fed by innovation of relatively minor inventions. Progress in this case was/is a product of doing those things that made networks work in past better and faster in the present, allowing more bandwidth so the application of those inventions and innovations can be used by more people simultaneously - how we use that in the future is not necessarily something we can control or predict with any certainty, and neither can Microsoft, Apple, Amazon or Google.
The Luddites weren't wrong, they just faced a product that worked all of the time - this time around the techno-luddites are up against a product that only works some of the time, so the result is a lot less certain.
Edited by Dean - June 25 2011 at 05:22
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What?
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CPicard
Forum Senior Member
Joined: October 03 2008
Location: Là, sui monti.
Status: Offline
Points: 10841
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Posted: June 25 2011 at 05:11 |
Just to say: this thing makes me think of a couple of articles from Cracked.
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ExittheLemming
Forum Senior Member
Joined: October 19 2007
Location: Penal Colony
Status: Offline
Points: 11420
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Posted: June 25 2011 at 05:15 |
Dean wrote:
Sean Trane wrote:
Dean wrote:
The one thing that will not disappear is progress. |
we probably don't have the same definition of what progress is... at least what I'd consider positive progress
AFAIC, it's already dead
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a missile is just a spear with an engine after all.
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I'm gonna steal that. You work in the computing sphere (I think) so you clearly have a 'hands-on' view of such matters and the points you make all strike this computer illiterate as perfectly valid. However, is there not some hope that the murdering p.r.i.c.k. who fires the state of the art spear might actually progress to take up state of the art knitting instead?
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Sean Trane
Special Collaborator
Prog Folk
Joined: April 29 2004
Location: Heart of Europe
Status: Offline
Points: 20301
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Posted: June 25 2011 at 15:00 |
Dean wrote:
Sean Trane wrote:
Dean wrote:
The one thing that will not disappear is progress. |
we probably don't have the same definition of what progress is... at least what I'd consider positive progress
AFAIC, it's already dead
|
There is only one definition of progress - it just means to move forward (in time), so views of positive and negative progress are in the main subjective and dependant upon the destination of that forward movement being somewhere you want to be. Progress in that sense is an inevitability - just as putting one foot in front of the other and shifting your body-weight to that leading foot will inexorably result in forward movement. Progress can never die, it can just result in a change you like, don't like or don't give a hoot about (then, indifference is as likely to permit progress as it is to halt it).
I have conjectured a number of times that invention is in decline, but invention does not fuel progress as much as innovation does: Apple did not invent any of the products they sell, they innovated previous inventions in their application, how we perceive them and how we use them. All the "progress" that may (or may not) result in these 9 things (plus a myriad of others not listed) disappearing is an inevitability of invention finding an application through innovation - as long as mankind exists to find those applications technical progress will continue unabated. So while I believe that invention is in decline, innovation is not - a missile is just a spear with an engine after all.
Cloud computing is where networks started back in the 1950s & 1960s, be that a central computer linked by dumb terminals, or a network of intelligent terminals sharing processing over a wide geographic area, the concept is as old as computing itself and the Internet grew from that, married to the pre-existing telecommunications networks and fed by innovation of relatively minor inventions. Progress in this case was/is a product of doing those things that made networks work in past better and faster in the present, allowing more bandwidth so the application of those inventions and innovations can be used by more people simultaneously - how we use that in the future is not necessarily something we can control or predict with any certainty, and neither can Microsoft, Apple, Amazon or Google.
The Luddites weren't wrong, they just faced a product that worked all of the time - this time around the techno-luddites are up against a product that only works some of the time, so the result is a lot less certain. |
yeah, whatever
You completely missed my point , but it doesn't matter. ....
(I wasn't talking of technological "progress", even that is probably one of the least-dark aspect of the progress I was referring to, even if technologies generally widen the social gap between the affluent and the less fortunate)
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let's just stay above the moral melee prefer the sink to the gutter keep our sand-castle virtues content to be a doer as well as a thinker, prefer lifting our pen rather than un-sheath our sword
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Dean
Special Collaborator
Retired Admin and Amateur Layabout
Joined: May 13 2007
Location: Europe
Status: Offline
Points: 37575
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Posted: June 25 2011 at 15:15 |
Sean Trane wrote:
Dean wrote:
Sean Trane wrote:
Dean wrote:
The one thing that will not disappear is progress. |
we probably don't have the same definition of what progress is... at least what I'd consider positive progress
AFAIC, it's already dead
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There is only one definition of progress - it just means to move forward (in time), so views of positive and negative progress are in the main subjective and dependant upon the destination of that forward movement being somewhere you want to be.
::snipp::
The Luddites weren't wrong, they just faced a product that worked all of the time - this time around the techno-luddites are up against a product that only works some of the time, so the result is a lot less certain. |
yeah, whatever
You completely missed my point , but it doesn't matter. ....
(I wasn't talking of technological "progress", even that is probably one of the least-dark aspect of the progress I was referring to, even if technologies generally widen the social gap between the affluent and the less fortunate)
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Then I didn't miss the point, you simply failed to make one in the few words you used.
But yeah, whatever
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What?
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Sean Trane
Special Collaborator
Prog Folk
Joined: April 29 2004
Location: Heart of Europe
Status: Offline
Points: 20301
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Posted: June 25 2011 at 18:23 |
Dean wrote:
Sean Trane wrote:
Dean wrote:
Sean Trane wrote:
Dean wrote:
The one thing that will not disappear is progress. |
we probably don't have the same definition of what progress is... at least what I'd consider positive progress
AFAIC, it's already dead
|
There is only one definition of progress - it just means to move forward (in time), so views of positive and negative progress are in the main subjective and dependant upon the destination of that forward movement being somewhere you want to be.
::snipp::
The Luddites weren't wrong, they just faced a product that worked all of the time - this time around the techno-luddites are up against a product that only works some of the time, so the result is a lot less certain. |
yeah, whatever
You completely missed my point , but it doesn't matter. ....
(I wasn't talking of technological "progress", even that is probably one of the least-dark aspect of the progress I was referring to, even if technologies generally widen the social gap between the affluent and the less fortunate)
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Then I didn't miss the point, you simply failed to make one in the few words you used.
But yeah, whatever |
I thought it was quite clear I spoke of social progress (despite not implicitly said, it was much more than subliminal) not of technological progress.... and right now we're in phase or social regress and the technological advances are used against the people's overall well-being... just for a few chosen's private interests or profits.
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let's just stay above the moral melee prefer the sink to the gutter keep our sand-castle virtues content to be a doer as well as a thinker, prefer lifting our pen rather than un-sheath our sword
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Triceratopsoil
Forum Senior Member
Joined: April 03 2010
Location: Canada
Status: Offline
Points: 18016
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Posted: June 25 2011 at 18:26 |
It was quite clear, but not even implicitly said? indeed
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Dean
Special Collaborator
Retired Admin and Amateur Layabout
Joined: May 13 2007
Location: Europe
Status: Offline
Points: 37575
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Posted: June 25 2011 at 18:27 |
indeed indeed.
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What?
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rogerthat
Prog Reviewer
Joined: September 03 2006
Location: .
Status: Offline
Points: 9869
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Posted: June 26 2011 at 07:03 |
A view from the third world: 1. It is practically dead even here. Not because of email but because efficient private courier has made it redundant. If you do want to send a nice greeting card or a book or a CD as a present to somebody over long distance, you could very well use the courier service. They'd at least take some ownership if the dispatch gets delayed or is sent back undelivered and help you out. 2. Not yet. There is not enough trust of net banking yet. I can see something like that happening over my lifetime (and that means roughly another 50 years more so it's a LONG time) but as of now, the check is still very much ubiquitous and not at all an endangered species. 3. In India, newspapers have done very well over the last few years. Nobody knows why but it makes everybody happy. 4. Don't see it happening it. And as with newspapers, new writers have somehow done well in India. Actually, writing is not nearly as dead as people like to think. Whether there is any GOOD writing is a matter of taste. Yeah, I gather this is more about ebooks but even with regard to that, people still like to flip through the pages. What's got hit badly is the encyclopedia. 5. Maybe not for personal use but corporate landline telephony gets better and better technologically. In my previous org, we had completely mobile extensions that you could log on to on any handset in any office in India. And at least in this country, that is supposed to be amazing infrastructure. 6. Music as an art form will have some sort of existence but the music business is in very real danger of becoming irrelevant and eventually ceasing to exist. It would be a shame in a way because that you could afford to do things on a certain scale and expense in the music industry fuelled ambition and daring (which, sorry, is a good thing). But, well, the industry has more or less dug its own grave so it is difficult at this point to see myself feeling much regret over it if and when it happens. 7. Again, nay! I guess we are about 50 years behind socially? TV is not going anywhere and it's a burgeoning industry. Of course, all I watch these days are mainly sports events and a bit of news. TV SHOWS specifically are crap. 8. You still can't have a virtual car or a virtual ranch, etc. An interesting case study here is the wristwatch. Since you can check your time on a cellphone or your computer, why do you need a wristwatch? And yet, even I who don't care for style or fashion bought a nice new one and paid money that would have got me maybe 8 music albums. As long as people don't mess up branding horrendously, man will always crave for things to own. 9. In re the last point, you have a CHOICE not to update your status all the time, not to talk about what you recently bought, not to upload intimate photographs on your facebook profile. And as a matter of fact, I generally don't. I use my status update to put up my latest articles for a cricket website for friends to read and generate interest in the website so my ed won't complain or to recommend music or make occasional comments on burning topics. If people want to be sheep and do as everyone else does, that is also their choice but your privacy hasn't been taken away from you, you chose to give it away. We don't have so much surveillance here so I concede that point. But you absolutely have a choice not to share your life 24/7 on social networks and if you can't 'resist' it, hard luck but I haven't got much sympathy. Somewhat related to point 9, I don't use short forms on facebook and try to avoid it on mobile sms except where the message gets too long and cannot be sent as a single sms, if you know what I mean. I don't depend on spelling or grammar check (so please excuse any mistakes in here )and I try to work out simple calculations on my own instead of using calculators or excel. None of this may be out of sync on this forum, but most people of my age group in my country don't write full sentences these days and frequently confuse "lose" with "loose" (argh!). You have the choice not to let technology make you a dumbo but if you don't make that choice, you have yourself to blame for the consequences. And I am not grandstanding here, there is seriously nothing hard about all this. People have to remain grounded and not let themselves get swept away by technology. Instead, use it intelligently to make your life more comfortable.
Edited by rogerthat - June 26 2011 at 07:06
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ghost_of_morphy
Prog Reviewer
Joined: March 08 2007
Location: United States
Status: Offline
Points: 2755
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Posted: June 26 2011 at 15:05 |
Why, if it isn't Captain Obvious and his sidekick, the Self-Evident Wonder.
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toroddfuglesteg
Forum Senior Member
Retired
Joined: March 04 2008
Location: Retirement Home
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Points: 3658
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Posted: June 26 2011 at 16:21 |
The things that will disappear in the near future is:
1. Cheap food. The prices now even for the supermarkets budget brands has risen with 100 - 200 % during the last year. I expect at least the same next year. 2. Cheap fuel. Both for heating up house and for the car. 3. Car holidays, school runs and small errands with the car. Too expensive in the future. Bike or walking is the new car. 4. Cheap electicity. Forget that one too. Those times are over. 5. Good living standard for the working & the middle class. No more, I am afraid. There will now be one overclass with a very good luxerious living standard..... and the rest of us. 6. Holidays in the sun for the working and the middle class. To expensive, I am afraid. Even a holiday in the nearest beach resort will be beyond the means of most of us. 7. "You have never had it so good" statements by politicians. Really ? Come over here and I will f***** give you a black eye. Then a f******* broken nose and I will also re-arrange all your f****** bones. You f******* liar !!!!!!!!!!!! 8. Four seasons. Well, for those of you who lives in a place which still have four seasons in a year (that exludes all of us in the British Isles). In the future, the rest of you will get two seasons...... In other words, just like in Scotland. 9. Big entertainment things. Like PCs, TVs and so forth. The future will be handheld and small just so they can fit into our smaller houses. And now, ring the Samaritans and complain.
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Triceratopsoil
Forum Senior Member
Joined: April 03 2010
Location: Canada
Status: Offline
Points: 18016
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Posted: June 26 2011 at 16:25 |
The next trend once they've exhausted the possibilities of flat-panel tvs will be small big entertainment I bet - HD projector technology
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Icarium
Forum Senior Member
VIP Member
Joined: March 21 2008
Location: Tigerstaden
Status: Offline
Points: 34055
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Posted: June 26 2011 at 16:42 |
i want living breathing pokemon
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Sean Trane
Special Collaborator
Prog Folk
Joined: April 29 2004
Location: Heart of Europe
Status: Offline
Points: 20301
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Posted: June 26 2011 at 17:27 |
toroddfuglesteg wrote:
The things that will disappear in the near future is:
1. Cheap food. The prices now even for the supermarkets budget brands has risen with 100 - 200 % during the last year. I expect at least the same next year.
2. Cheap fuel. Both for heating up house and for the car. >>> Gone al long time ago!
3. Car holidays, school runs and small errands with the car. Too expensive in the future. Bike or walking is the new car. >>> Unfortunately innate public transports will not fill the void
4. Cheap electicity. Forget that one too. Those times are over. >> quite a while ago as well!
5. Good living standard for the working & the middle class. No more, I am afraid. There will now be one overclass with a very good luxerious living standard..... and the rest of us. >>> that's what i was getting at with my previous intervention... Only the really top class' actual living standards will survive (and probably increase)
6. Holidays in the sun for the working and the middle class. To expensive, I am afraid. Even a holiday in the nearest beach resort will be beyond the means of most of us. >>> well that might be a blessing for the planet's future... polluting by travelling across the planet for business in one thing... just for holidays and polluting the third world is unacceptable >> waste mangement is catastrophic in many non-occidental countries... Plastic deserts are plentiful.
7. "You have never had it so good" statements by politicians. Really ? Come over here and I will f***** give you a black eye. Then a f******* broken nose and I will also re-arrange all your f****** bones. You f******* liar !!!!!!!!!!!!
8. Four seasons. Well, for those of you who lives in a place which still have four seasons in a year (that exludes all of us in the British Isles). In the future, the rest of you will get two seasons...... In other words, just like in Scotland. >>> that's winter and fall, uh???
9. Big entertainment things. Like PCs, TVs and so forth. The future will be handheld and small just so they can fit into our smaller houses.
And now, ring the Samaritans and complain.
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let's just stay above the moral melee prefer the sink to the gutter keep our sand-castle virtues content to be a doer as well as a thinker, prefer lifting our pen rather than un-sheath our sword
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VanderGraafKommandöh
Prog Reviewer
Joined: July 04 2005
Location: Malaria
Status: Offline
Points: 89372
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Posted: June 27 2011 at 17:54 |
Don't forget the oil. It'll run out eventually. Maybe not completely in our lifetime but we'll be crippled by it in our lifetime.
I pay my rent by cheque. I prefer it that way. I read paper books. I don't like e-books that much. I don't want to use a Cloud. The new Chromebooks are silly but will sell well because people are silly.
Henry, stop ruining threads with your idiocy.
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Marty McFly
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Posted: June 28 2011 at 15:48 |
I have a friend who regularly watches porn. He put a piece of duct tape over web camera in his laptop just to be sure ...
Seriously, I don't have webcam driver installed, I don't do Skype voice chatting, I don't use Facebook on anything else than a game of Poker every few weeks. I'm avid book fan and I don't want them to disappear (even this is the course where it's heading).
You know, when less and less people stops reading, you can do one of two things:
1)raise prices of books => even less readers => raise prices of books => even less
2)lower prices of books => possibly more readers OR less profit
But you know what ? I never sent a letter. Not once in my life. I started listening music on magnetic tapes though.
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There's a point where "avant-garde" and "experimental" becomes "terrible" and "pointless," -Andyman1125 on Lulu Even my
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ExittheLemming
Forum Senior Member
Joined: October 19 2007
Location: Penal Colony
Status: Offline
Points: 11420
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Posted: June 28 2011 at 16:01 |
toroddfuglesteg wrote:
8. Four seasons. Well, for those of you who lives in a place which still have four seasons in a year (that exludes all of us in the British Isles). In the future, the rest of you will get two seasons...... In other words, just like in Scotland. |
How do you know it's summer in Scotland? (The rain's warmer)
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