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oliverstoned ![]() Special Collaborator ![]() ![]() Honorary Collaborator Joined: March 26 2004 Location: France Status: Offline Points: 6308 |
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It used to, in the good old days. |
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Mr ProgFreak ![]() Forum Senior Member ![]() ![]() Joined: November 08 2008 Location: Sweden Status: Offline Points: 5195 |
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Quote: “There’s a lot of uncertainty,” Minnis said. “If it turns out to be a higher number, things might need to be done to cut back on it.”
That's a quite unscientific page - they mix up contrails and cirrus clouds, that about does it for me.
Sorry, but they go to great length and say very little. "Aviation makes a significant contribution to anthropogenic climate forcing" What the heck is "climate forcing"? What exactly do these "contrail cirrus" "clouds" do? ![]() |
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oliverstoned ![]() Special Collaborator ![]() ![]() Honorary Collaborator Joined: March 26 2004 Location: France Status: Offline Points: 6308 |
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Because when dissipate (badly), contrails turn into avio-cirrus
like on this pic, her's how looks the beautiful blue sky of south of France ![]() Edited by oliverstoned - June 15 2011 at 14:08 |
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Dean ![]() Special Collaborator ![]() ![]() Retired Admin and Amateur Layabout Joined: May 13 2007 Location: Europe Status: Offline Points: 37575 |
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The technical term for this is "fudge factor" - also known as "made up numbers" - this kind of "statistic" does climate change "science" no favours.
![]() One thing that fails to get mentioned, or overlooked when it is, is that the atmospheric conditions that result in contrails are exactly the same conditions required for cirrus clouds to form naturally - every single photograph that shows a thin contrail is in a sky that also contains naturally occurring cirrus clouds - those cirrus clouds would be present whether planes flew or not. The conclusions drawn in these "studies" assume that the clouds would not have formed if the aircraft were not flying - that is specious - cirrus clouds predate Wilbur and Orville Wright and Frank Whittle. We cannot estimate the degree of cirrus cloud cover that exists without air-traffic - even the first article you linked implies that point (but fails to make it) - the atmospheric conditions that allow the formation of contrails and cirrus clouds has changed over the past forty years because of Arctic oscillation (and North Atlantic oscillation) affecting air pressure a sea-level (and thus at altitude) - as a result we are seeing more naturally formed cirrus cloud now than in the 1970s.
One thing in the first article that concerns me (and is contradicted in the second article) is this statement:
The radiative forcing attributed to contrails (based upon those computer models in the other articles) is around 0.01 W/m² ... this is compared to the equivalent radiative forcing value of 1.46W/m² for CO2 - or to put it bluntly - the alleged effect of contrails on global temperatures is 146 times less than CO2. This article implies that the effects of contrails is significant - that these temperature changes are going to be measurable - seriously, with values around 0.01 W/m² any changes in temperature will be below seasonal and local variances.
What we do not know is whether aircraft add or subtract from the overall quantity of cirrus clouds - the wake of a aircraft is just as likely to disturb the atmosphere and prevent the natural cloud formation or disperse existing ones as your "hole in the clouds" photograph wonderfully demonstrates (those were cirrocumulus clouds, but they are also high altitude clouds much like cirrus).
Edited by Dean - June 15 2011 at 16:11 |
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Dean ![]() Special Collaborator ![]() ![]() Retired Admin and Amateur Layabout Joined: May 13 2007 Location: Europe Status: Offline Points: 37575 |
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I have never heard of those lamps described as "spring" or "autumn" - grow lights (which are not the same as luminotherapy or natural daylight bulbs) are either incandescent (for commercial growing of house plants), fluorescent bulbs that are used for growing herbs and vegetables indoors or as sodium discharge which produces a warm red light for promoting flower and fruit growth. Searching the internet has failed to find any reference to "autumn grow lights"
/edit - autumn lamps would be pointless - the growing season is summer - this is the "reproduction" period when fruits and vegetables grow and ripen - we harvest them in autumn when this period is finished - we do not need special lamps to do that.
Calling the sunbeam "horizontal" is meaningless and wrong: that would mean it shines parallel to the Earth (perhaps Pat's Flat Earth does come into effect after all) - the only time it can approach an angle of inclination that would produce sunbeams that are parallel to the relative tangential flatness of the Earth at any single location is at sunset and sunrise and it will do that at those times of the day every day of the year, regardless of the season. The sun is lower in the sky at noon in winter than it is at noon during summer by the same angle as the obliquity of the earth (23.4º). During the spring and autumn equinox it is at the same angle at noon, therefore the incident angle of sunlight shining on the Earth at those times is the same. The angles at Autumn and Winter are different (by 11.7º)
I suspect that relative temperature is affecting perception of sunlight strength - seasonal lag results in the average daily temperature not being in synch with the day-length changes caused by the Earth's tilt - Autumn is physically warmer than Spring because the latent heat of the preceeding season. /edit: Because the ambient temperature is warmer in autumn than it is in spring perhaps you percieve that the sun is warmer too, which affects how you imagine the colour of the sun.
This explanation makes no sense at all - in fact it is contradictory and confused - if the light is dispersed in all directions then the sun light would be diffused so it would not be brighter (large, white, blazing); the sun does not have a star shape, no star has a star shape; when we look at the sun (dumb thing to do, even in winter) we see the light that comes directly from the sun in a straight line from A to B - not dispersed, scattered or bent in any way; The sun radiates a fixed amount of light - if some of that is scattered and dispersed then the amount of that light that we see coming directly from the sun will be reduced and so the sun would be less bright by the same degree - in your explanation it becomes brighter - this does not make any sense - you cannot disperse light from an object and make it brighter. Similarly if you disperse light you make it softer - shadows would become indistinct - in your explanation sunlight is dispersed and becomes more "harsh" - that again is a contradiction that does not make sense.
Probably - I haven't taken any myself, but I have noticed a number of very clear nights over the past few months and have been able to see all 7 of the major bright stars in Ursa Major with ease without having to wait for my eyes to become dark-adapted (always a good guide to night clarity) - in the 8 years I have been living at this location I would say that is typical, however I am plagued by light polution from a large town called Basingstoke 10km to the west.
shape? Edited by Dean - June 15 2011 at 16:18 |
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Equality 7-2521 ![]() Forum Senior Member ![]() ![]() Joined: August 11 2005 Location: Philly Status: Offline Points: 15784 |
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I could show you a pic of a very bright star at night. They would all appear much fainter than similar ones I could have taken years ago. The reason for this is light pollution (and a host of other factors which are not significant).
I've actually had some really good observing nights recently. I'm going camping soon and can't wait to get some serious amateur observing done. |
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"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "
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Negoba ![]() Prog Reviewer ![]() ![]() Joined: July 24 2008 Location: Big Muddy Status: Offline Points: 5210 |
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I used to drive from St. Louis to a relatively remote place about 1 1/2 hours away weekly and the clarity of the air both in visibility and breathing always struck me the moment I opened my car door. The number of visible stars was simply astounding.
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You are quite a fine person, and I am very fond of you. But you are only quite a little fellow, in a wide world, after all.
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Dean ![]() Special Collaborator ![]() ![]() Retired Admin and Amateur Layabout Joined: May 13 2007 Location: Europe Status: Offline Points: 37575 |
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Equality 7-2521 ![]() Forum Senior Member ![]() ![]() Joined: August 11 2005 Location: Philly Status: Offline Points: 15784 |
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I did undergraduate astronomy research on the charting of variable stars. Twice a year I got to go Flagstaff, Arizona which is located 2 km above sea level. The city has very strict light pollution laws. For most of the night I would be stuck inside a control booth manning their telescope, but occasionally I would get to go out and do sight viewing. It's astonishing. It's so dark that coming from inside a lit area you see nothing in all directions except pitch black. When your eyes finally adjust and look at the sky, you can see almost no empty space. It's one of the most marvelous experiences of my life seeing the sky about as best as possible from terrestrial space. |
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"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "
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Epignosis ![]() Special Collaborator ![]() ![]() Honorary Collaborator Joined: December 30 2007 Location: Raeford, NC Status: Offline Points: 32553 |
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That's pretty much my backyard. ![]() (that's garden to you) |
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Henry Plainview ![]() Forum Senior Member ![]() ![]() Joined: May 26 2008 Location: Declined Status: Offline Points: 16715 |
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Also, there are no white crayons. Dean, I have to commend you once again for going above and beyond the call of duty in arguments. I don't know how you do it without going insane.
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if you own a sodastream i hate you
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Snow Dog ![]() Special Collaborator ![]() ![]() Honorary Collaborator Joined: March 23 2005 Location: Caerdydd Status: Offline Points: 32995 |
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Totally agree
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Equality 7-2521 ![]() Forum Senior Member ![]() ![]() Joined: August 11 2005 Location: Philly Status: Offline Points: 15784 |
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I've never been able to work Rayleigh Scattering into a conversation without someone calling me a nerd so I'm impressed by that.
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"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "
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Dean ![]() Special Collaborator ![]() ![]() Retired Admin and Amateur Layabout Joined: May 13 2007 Location: Europe Status: Offline Points: 37575 |
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Just reading that makes me envious - in the UK it is impossible to be that high or that far away from light polution. I have had an almost similar experience when on holiday in the Canary Islands 20 years ago (not quite the same though) - when you see the sky like that it puts our position in the universe into perspective somewhat.
Back in '78 I applied for a technician job in the Canaries when the Royal Observatory was moving the Issac Newton telescope out there, (possibly the best technician posting in the whole Civil Service IMO), but my sponsorship for University came through at the same time so I withdrew my application.
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Equality 7-2521 ![]() Forum Senior Member ![]() ![]() Joined: August 11 2005 Location: Philly Status: Offline Points: 15784 |
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I'm sure it worked out for you, but it sounds like that would have been a great thing to be involved with. I've always wanted to travel out that ways. |
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"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "
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timothy leary ![]() Forum Senior Member ![]() ![]() Joined: December 29 2005 Location: Lilliwaup, Wa. Status: Offline Points: 5319 |
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Living on the fringe of one of the largest roadless area in the lower 48 states we get great night skies when it is clear here in the olympic mountains.
Edited by timothy leary - June 15 2011 at 19:45 |
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oliverstoned ![]() Special Collaborator ![]() ![]() Honorary Collaborator Joined: March 26 2004 Location: France Status: Offline Points: 6308 |
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What do you think of this pic, this is a more and more common weather scenario recently: hundred of contrails in the morning that dissipate badly and turn into a white haze with still some contrails that remain there all the day. And so the sun light is very agressive when passing through this steam water/soot layer. One need sunglasses more than by clear weather as Sean said. It's due to the saturation: too much contrails so they cannot dissipate well as they used to do in the past. Of course it depends on the pressure, temperature conditions of the day. Edited by oliverstoned - June 16 2011 at 02:24 |
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Sean Trane ![]() Special Collaborator ![]() Prog Folk Joined: April 29 2004 Location: Heart of Europe Status: Online Points: 20414 |
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yes I know of these blue light tungsten lamp, supposedly ideal for indoor plants where natural daylight is insufficient. as for the normal tungsten bulb, as i said I've stopped trying to convince people.
Must you read everything the wrong way???
![]() As for the calm sun phase (Silent Sun, anyone???), I don't know if it does affect the spectrum of the light it emits... maybe the intensity is lower in calm phases, but I have no idea if it affects the wavelength either.
But I thought I'd bring these issues to the recent debate on the sun's appearance.
Must run, now.
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let's just stay above the moral melee
prefer the sink to the gutter keep our sand-castle virtues content to be a doer as well as a thinker, prefer lifting our pen rather than un-sheath our sword |
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Dean ![]() Special Collaborator ![]() ![]() Retired Admin and Amateur Layabout Joined: May 13 2007 Location: Europe Status: Offline Points: 37575 |
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The wavelengths of light emitted by the sun are dependant upon temperature at the surface - according to wiki (I'm have no real knowledge of solar radiation) while sunspots have a lower temperature than the average surface temperature, the area immediate around the sunspot is hotter sunspot activity and solar eruptions affect the overal surface temperature by about +0.1% - therefore with zero sunspot activity you would expect to see a reduction in sun brightness by 1/1000th Edited by Dean - June 16 2011 at 08:03 |
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oliverstoned ![]() Special Collaborator ![]() ![]() Honorary Collaborator Joined: March 26 2004 Location: France Status: Offline Points: 6308 |
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![]() That is reality, not theories |
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