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Ivan_Melgar_M ![]() Special Collaborator ![]() Honorary Collaborator Joined: April 27 2004 Location: Peru Status: Offline Points: 19557 |
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Thanks T, I rest my case
Iván
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Equality 7-2521 ![]() Forum Senior Member ![]() ![]() Joined: August 11 2005 Location: Philly Status: Offline Points: 15784 |
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I told him to google's Simpson's Paradox for a good example of the trouble that occurs.
To take an absurd example, but one that illustrates the point of what I'm saying:
Say the US has an illiteracy rate of 50%. The US consists of 2 people. So we have that the ratio of illiterate to literate is (1/2).
Brazil has an illiteracy rate of about 66% and has 3 people, so we have (2/3).
Peru, iLR of 75%, 4 people, (3/4)
Europe has iLR of 80%, 20 people, (16/20)
So it looks like US really is less than the rest of the world in terms of its literates going along like this. But India has a literacy rate of 45%. No big deal right, the US is still much less literate than the rest of the world. But India has 10000 people, for a ratio of (4500/10000).
So the US has an illiteracy rate of 50%.
The rest of the world here has an illiteracy rate of (2+3+16+4500)/(3+4+20+10000)= 4521/10027 = 45% which is lower than the US.
I'll say again, for an even more counterintuitive result that occurs from reckless rate comparing google Simpson's Paradox. When I go over it in class most people don't believe me even after I clearly show them it's true.
This is why we should really use natural frequencies when doing statistical reasoning instead of rates.
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"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "
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thellama73 ![]() Collaborator ![]() ![]() Honorary Collaborator Joined: May 29 2006 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 8368 |
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Why do you keep misinterpreting my point? The point I was trying to make is that the fact that most of the world exhibits a quality does not, in itself, make that quality desirable. I chose literacy off the top of my head, but it could have been anything. Most of the world's population is poorer than the average US citizen. That does not mean that poverty is desirable. I am not saying "the rest of the world is wrong because they are poor." I am saying that the fact that they are numerous does not make their situation desirable. How can I make this any clearer? |
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Equality 7-2521 ![]() Forum Senior Member ![]() ![]() Joined: August 11 2005 Location: Philly Status: Offline Points: 15784 |
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I'm pretty sure he understands, but he's invested too much time trying to refute your non-point that it would be embarassing to admit he was wrong and completely misunderstood you.
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"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "
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Negoba ![]() Prog Reviewer ![]() ![]() Joined: July 24 2008 Location: Big Muddy Status: Offline Points: 5210 |
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When reading that, I thought "That's not a paradox, it's just math." So I looked at the Wiki article. They use the word apparent paradox which is accurate, but the more interesting thing is the example of where the logical error manifests. It is just bad math, and not taking into account proportionality, but the examples were nice. |
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You are quite a fine person, and I am very fond of you. But you are only quite a little fellow, in a wide world, after all.
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Equality 7-2521 ![]() Forum Senior Member ![]() ![]() Joined: August 11 2005 Location: Philly Status: Offline Points: 15784 |
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The word paradox is used frequently in math to describe things that aren't strictly a paradox. |
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"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "
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Ivan_Melgar_M ![]() Special Collaborator ![]() Honorary Collaborator Joined: April 27 2004 Location: Peru Status: Offline Points: 19557 |
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You say it,. THE REST OF THE WORLD HAS A GREATER TOTAL NUMBER OF ILLITERATES THAN USA
This means nothing at all, because you are placing Tanzani and India (if India has the hgh rates you say) with countries as Sweden and Norway with virtually 0% of illiteracy.
I'ts meaningless because you are comparing 6 billion people with 3 hundred million people.
Now, a comparison coiuntry by country will be absolutely helpful, because you will really know that you are ahead or behind most countries in the world, and not ahead exclusively because a country like India with 1,027'015,247 souls like India, has a number of 32% or 350,000 illiterates.
You know what is a distoorsoion in statistics, and a country like India distorts the total percentage you want to get.
While maybe 100 countries in the world have a loiwer rate of iliteracy than USA.
Iván Edited by Ivan_Melgar_M - September 15 2010 at 14:24 |
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Equality 7-2521 ![]() Forum Senior Member ![]() ![]() Joined: August 11 2005 Location: Philly Status: Offline Points: 15784 |
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Ivan what are you talking about??
I provided an absurd example. I wasn't making any statement about real illiteracy.
Further, you can't argue with anything I did. I distorted nothing. What you were doing was distortion. Please this is ridiculous. You're acting like a child. I'm not here to argue basic facts of arithmetic.
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"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "
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Ivan_Melgar_M ![]() Special Collaborator ![]() Honorary Collaborator Joined: April 27 2004 Location: Peru Status: Offline Points: 19557 |
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Me neither, just pointing that comparing USA with the whole rest of the world placed in a sack means nothing at all.
It only proves that one or two countries with almost a billion inhabitants and a high rate of illiteracy will create a distorsion in the numbers.
You have to compare USA with all the other countries and se where USA sytands as a country, we all know that has a lower number of illiterates than India alone, but probably has a higher percentage than most of the other countries of the world.
Most likely India alone has more illiterates han the rest of the world, because they alone make like 300 millions (According to UNESCO that's the number in this country.
Iván
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Equality 7-2521 ![]() Forum Senior Member ![]() ![]() Joined: August 11 2005 Location: Philly Status: Offline Points: 15784 |
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What part of absurd example do you not understand? What part of the reasoning here don't you understand?
I just demonstrated to you why you cannot compare rates. I just demonstrated to you why I was not "in acid" for telling you the formula that would need to be used. You had a complaint. I showed you the absolute truth of my statements. Somehow now you're attemping to argue with me.
I just showed you why comparing US as a country to the illiteracy rate of every country is completely faulty and just a absolutely childish mistake to make when addressing the question that was brought up.
God Bless Mike for dealing with you over the course of a 90 page thread.
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"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "
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Ivan_Melgar_M ![]() Special Collaborator ![]() Honorary Collaborator Joined: April 27 2004 Location: Peru Status: Offline Points: 19557 |
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Now, about the CIA factbook:
In other words, they only care about those who formally read and this is insufficient as they admit, because:they don't mention functional illiteracy, people that can read simple words, maybe write their names, but can't read a newspaper or even fill a job application, they are ILLITERATES.
This persons are even bellow the 5 grades BPSA chart (5=Fluid literate and 1= virtually illiterate), they are for all effects illiterate, they can't function.
Negoba gave a good example, 2 - 3 person out of his 20 (average) patients per week, need assistance to fill their names in a form, this persons sadly are illiterate, but according to the CIA fact book, they are literate But CIA factbook also ignores that a great percentage of students who are considered literate, are bellow the basic level in reading, also virtually illiterate,
But is obvious they comnsider every school graduate as literate, despite:
This is frightening, and if we are fighting for freedom to burn books instead of obligation to read books, we are in terrible problem. Iván |
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Ivan_Melgar_M ![]() Special Collaborator ![]() Honorary Collaborator Joined: April 27 2004 Location: Peru Status: Offline Points: 19557 |
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Sadly I understand all your post.
The only thing you believe proved is that your statistic system may be correct but says nothing.
You keep avoiding the issue under discussion.
I don't see any truth in any statement, you are trying to support that is better to compare USA number of illuiterates with the rest of the world as a unity and that is absurd.
Yes we know that most likely all the world has more illiterates than USA, but at the same time has 20 times more population, and the country with 32% of illiterates has more than a billion inhabitants.
You are trying to prove what can't be proven, you are like the CIA factbook that says only 1% oif the Americans are formally illiterate, but the sad truth is that14.5% to 14.7% can't read and 24% of school graduates can barely read.
Mike deals with my opinions because he wants, you can leave the thread whenever you want
So all your truth is worthless.
Iván
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Equality 7-2521 ![]() Forum Senior Member ![]() ![]() Joined: August 11 2005 Location: Philly Status: Offline Points: 15784 |
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Lol the great Ivan has overturned the basic laws of arithmetic and statistical reasoning. All Hail!!! I'm not even addressing the issue of literacy. I'm just telling you how you would have to show that the US has a higher illiteracry rate than the rest of the world.
Can someone else chime in here? I don't even understand his objection.
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"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "
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Padraic ![]() Special Collaborator ![]() ![]() Honorary Collaborator Joined: February 16 2006 Location: Pennsylvania Status: Offline Points: 31169 |
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llama use a different example next time for chrissakes
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Equality 7-2521 ![]() Forum Senior Member ![]() ![]() Joined: August 11 2005 Location: Philly Status: Offline Points: 15784 |
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Notice that I never said the word functionally illiterate? Notice that when you mentioned functional illiteracy I said that we were not talking about functional illiteracy? |
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"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "
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Negoba ![]() Prog Reviewer ![]() ![]() Joined: July 24 2008 Location: Big Muddy Status: Offline Points: 5210 |
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Ivan, Pat's math is correct and pertinent. Lord knows the two of us don't agree on alot but math is math. There are too many points getting argued here. I'm sure to be missing a few.
1. The actual literacy rate in the United States - unresolvable
2. How to calculate the literacy rate of the "rest of the world" - equation shown in strictest form
3. What the meaningful comparisons would be - debatable
4. The relation of literacy rates to the burning of books - easy, if you don't read, it's toilet paper!
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You are quite a fine person, and I am very fond of you. But you are only quite a little fellow, in a wide world, after all.
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Ivan_Melgar_M ![]() Special Collaborator ![]() Honorary Collaborator Joined: April 27 2004 Location: Peru Status: Offline Points: 19557 |
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I know, you just proved a series of statistical operations work, nothing more.
We know that you can make statistics about everything using different methods and reach oppopsite conclusions, but you said clearly in your first post that the comparison had to be made in number of illiterate comparing the total of USA illiterates against the total illiterates of the world to know if USA has (as Llama said) a smaller RATE of illiterates than the MOST of the world.
And I say this proves nothing, we all know that in numbers and maybe even in percentage, USA has a smaller number of illiterates than the whole world...But I insist that this means nothing if we don't work country by country.
And no, you don't understand my objection because you only try to prove your statistic system works.
That's exactly the problem, I mentioned this from my first post as a support that the statistical data of the CIA factbook is useless in this case.
BTW: The statistics work, only 1% are illiterate but 14.5 can't read and 24% of the graduates can barely read, so what does that 1% means?
Iván
Agree with Negoba, your operations work, but would say nothing in this case. Edited by Ivan_Melgar_M - September 15 2010 at 16:04 |
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Ivan_Melgar_M ![]() Special Collaborator ![]() Honorary Collaborator Joined: April 27 2004 Location: Peru Status: Offline Points: 19557 |
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THE REST of the world has lower literacy rates too
I would agree with you and even with Equality, his operation would had been perfect and precise, you have to compare USA with the rest of the world.
But the origial statement was
If he's using MOST, it implies a country by country (or even a region by region) comparison, but comparing the rate of USA with the world as a whole, has no relation with his statement.
I believe you will get me now.
Iván
Edited by Ivan_Melgar_M - September 15 2010 at 16:15 |
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Equality 7-2521 ![]() Forum Senior Member ![]() ![]() Joined: August 11 2005 Location: Philly Status: Offline Points: 15784 |
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There's only one way to do this Ivan. Only one conclussion to be reached if done correctly.
Then what are you arguing with me about??
Anyway, going country by country is absolutely meaningless when we're trying to show that the rate of US illiteracy is lower than the rest of the world which is what we were trying to do as I said over and over again.
They say everything. Explain to me why they say nothing.
You're the one who brought up functional illiteracy. We were talking about literacy. The 1% means that 1% of the US cannot read, as opposed to the stats which you cited that says 14% of the US reads very poorly.
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"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "
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Ivan_Melgar_M ![]() Special Collaborator ![]() Honorary Collaborator Joined: April 27 2004 Location: Peru Status: Offline Points: 19557 |
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That you are starting from a different statement, read my previous post and you will understand it also.
Please understand me, the original statement never said USA had lower illiteracy than THE REST of the world, in this case I would agree with you and I would accept that your operation is the only one possible..
BUT the original statement says that USA has less illiteracy than MOST of the world, in this case your operation can't be used, because most of the world implies that in some countries or regions literacy is higher but in MOST of the world (most of the countries or regions) is lower.
I am not an expert in statistics, but in the use of language I have to be one, because in my proffession one word is the difference between 25 years in jail and freedom, and your operation has no use to talk about what happens in MOST of the world.
I jhope you understood it and don't think that I'm trying to insist in soimething I know if wrong, but hat you are starting from a different scenario than the one posted by thellama.
Because what's the point id saying with triumph that only 1% are illiterate, when 14% of your population can't read...And not being able to read means exactly the same as being illiterate.
Or wouldn't you accept that not being able to read, despite what a certificate says is being illiterate?
Equality, the word functional is used since my first post, all the quotes I posted use the term functional, you haven't seen it or simply ignored it, that's another issue.
And his is my main point, even when the official statistics, say only 1% od USA sitizens can't read, the USA Education sector explains that between 14.5 and 14.7 of Americans can't read.
Iván Edited by Ivan_Melgar_M - September 15 2010 at 17:08 |
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