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debrewguy View Drop Down
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 22 2008 at 22:03
Worst of all - going over more and more of the info coming out as to how long this thing was building up
IVNrord actually had some true facts - the clinton & DUya administrations and their tax based motivations to get a mortgage , i.e. no capital gains when you sell a house, the loosening up of credit requirememtns in federally regulated organizations (freddie mac), the interest rate manipulations of the once Genius Greenspan. The total disregard for increasingly exploding bonuses and more.
Even the Reagonmcs caught up, once it had finally been realized that Friedman''s trickle down theory is a load of b.s. .
Oh, BTW, researching Reagan's inspiration - Tatcher and her remaking England. It seems like the newly found North Seal Oil that was rushing in just as she came into power explained why she was able to get done what she did without  tax increases. SO unlike Denmark who put everything away, and access the "dividends" only of their North Sea Oil Royalties the U'K. among many, shot the repeatedly as needed,and availalble.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 23 2008 at 16:15
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Commentary/ByAuthor/BillFleckenstein.aspx

I read this guy every week.  He has many sobering thoughts about the US economy and is worth a read if you have some time.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: December 29 2008 at 13:15



Edited by Slartibartfast - January 06 2009 at 18:38
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 06 2009 at 18:36



Edited by Slartibartfast - January 28 2009 at 16:00
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 07 2009 at 19:05
Apparently the world slow down and financial collapse is all due to Gordon Brown, prime minister of the UK. Oppossition leader David (i'm worth 30 million quid) Cameron blames labour for everything including every war sinces 2006, the problem being is that most people beleive this upper class twit, and come the next election when the Tories will probably win, the working classes will get absolutley humped and Camerons bum chums will make an even bigger fortune. At least Stevie Wonder is really blind.

Edited by visitor2035 - January 07 2009 at 19:06
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 07 2009 at 20:06
Originally posted by Slartibartfast Slartibartfast wrote:




My favourite one yet Slarti. Poor Barney Ouch

And yeah, I don't particularly like Cameron, but then again I don't think any of our parties have got it right. Save all that for the Political Thread though please.

N.B. Workers aren't exactly in a good position with Brown either, but I suppose he the lesser of the two weavels. I mean evils.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 08 2009 at 13:51
Interest rate down again.
 
Being a bit thick and naive I can't see the logic behind this notion of spending to get us out of the downturn. If we do spend anything isn't this likely to buy imported products? Where's the sense in that? It isn't going to do much for our own manufacturing industry much good - not that we have much of one anyway - cos it will take time to develop.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 08 2009 at 15:09
Originally posted by limeyrob limeyrob wrote:

Interest rate down again.
 
Being a bit thick and naive I can't see the logic behind this notion of spending to get us out of the downturn. If we do spend anything isn't this likely to buy imported products? Where's the sense in that? It isn't going to do much for our own manufacturing industry much good - not that we have much of one anyway - cos it will take time to develop.


I just read that savings rates here in the states are way up and that this is very bad.  People aren't spending but instead saving.  The horrorWink.  When everything is going great, savings are good because there is more money to borrow.  But when things are bad, its vice versa. 

And about imported products, I don't know what or how much the UK exports, but the idea is the establishment selling the goods gets its cut and can keep people working.  Even if it is Chinese (or wherever) goods. 

I think China is in for a rude awakening.  They have been inching up their pricing because people over there are getting a taste of the good life and want better wages.  They have roads and cars and more consumer goods.   Imagine.  They want to be like people in the west and get on the free market bandwagon.  But if their economy goes down and manufacturers have to cut pricing and wages back in order to compete and keep their doors open, it is going to be hard for the workers to go back to the way things were.  You can't unring that bell.  There could be unrest sooner or later.  I'm not saying that the Chinese should not be able to be slobbish consumers like anyone else, I suppose they have as much right as anyone.  But the culture and government being the way they are could spell trouble.  No one is paying them much mind because they have their own problems, but if things go wacky over there, it could get ugly everywhere.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 27 2009 at 16:30
Good reading:

Published on Monday, January 26, 2009 by CommonDreams.org

Two Santa Clauses or How The Republican Party Has Conned America for Thirty Years

by Thom Hartmann

This weekend, House Republican leader John Boehner played out the role of Jude Wanniski on NBC's "Meet The Press."

Odds are you've never heard of Jude, but without him Reagan never would have become a "successful" president, Republicans never would have taken control of the House or Senate, Bill Clinton never would have been impeached, and neither George Bush would have been president.

When Barry Goldwater went down to ignominious defeat in 1964, most Republicans felt doomed (among them the then-28-year-old Wanniski). Goldwater himself, although uncomfortable with the rising religious right within his own party and the calls for more intrusion in people's bedrooms, was a diehard fan of Herbert Hoover's economic worldview.

In Hoover's world (and virtually all the Republicans since reconstruction with the exception of Teddy Roosevelt), market fundamentalism was a virtual religion. Economists from Ludwig von Mises to Friedrich Hayek to Milton Friedman had preached that government could only make a mess of things economic, and the world of finance should be left to the Big Boys – the Masters of the Universe, as they sometimes called themselves – who ruled Wall Street and international finance.

Hoover enthusiastically followed the advice of his Treasury Secretary, multimillionaire Andrew Mellon, who said in 1931: "Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate. Purge the rottenness out of the system. High costs of living and high living will come down... enterprising people will pick up the wrecks from less competent people."

Thus, the Republican mantra was: "Lower taxes, reduce the size of government, and balance the budget."

The only problem with this ideology from the Hooverite perspective was that the Democrats always seemed like the bestowers of gifts, while the Republicans were seen by the American people as the stingy Scrooges, bent on making the lives of working people harder all the while making richer the very richest. This, Republican strategists since 1930 knew, was no way to win elections.

Which was why the most successful Republican of the 20th century up to that time, Dwight D. Eisenhower, had been quite happy with a top income tax rate on millionaires of 91 percent. As he wrote to his brother Edgar Eisenhower in a personal letter on November 8, 1954:

"[T]o attain any success it is quite clear that the Federal government cannot avoid or escape responsibilities which the mass of the people firmly believe should be undertaken by it. The political processes of our country are such that if a rule of reason is not applied in this effort, we will lose everything--even to a possible and drastic change in the Constitution. This is what I mean by my constant insistence upon 'moderation' in government.

"Should any political party attempt to abolish social security, unemployment insurance, and eliminate labor laws and farm programs, you would not hear of that party again in our political history. There is a tiny splinter group, of course, that believes you can do these things. Among them are H. L. Hunt [you possibly know his background], a few other Texas oil millionaires, and an occasional politician or business man from other areas. Their number is negligible and they are stupid."

Goldwater, however, rejected the "liberalism" of Eisenhower, Rockefeller, and other "moderates" within his own party. Extremism in defense of liberty was no vice, he famously told the 1964 nominating convention, and moderation was no virtue. And it doomed him and his party.

And so after Goldwater's defeat, the Republicans were again lost in the wilderness just as after Hoover's disastrous presidency. Even four years later when Richard Nixon beat LBJ in 1968, Nixon wasn't willing to embrace the economic conservatism of Goldwater and the economic true believers in the Republican Party. And Jerry Ford wasn't, in their opinions, much better. If Nixon and Ford believed in economic conservatism, they were afraid to practice it for fear of dooming their party to another forty years in the electoral wilderness.

By 1974, Jude Wanniski had had enough. The Democrats got to play Santa Claus when they passed out Social Security and Unemployment checks – both programs of the New Deal – as well as when their "big government" projects like roads, bridges, and highways were built giving a healthy union paycheck to construction workers. They kept raising taxes on businesses and rich people to pay for things, which didn't seem to have much effect at all on working people (wages were steadily going up, in fact), and that made them seem like a party of Robin Hoods, taking from the rich to fund programs for the poor and the working class. Americans loved it. And every time Republicans railed against these programs, they lost elections.

Everybody understood at the time that economies are driven by demand. People with good jobs have money in their pockets, and want to use it to buy things. The job of the business community is to either determine or drive that demand to their particular goods, and when they're successful at meeting the demand then factories get built, more people become employed to make more products, and those newly-employed people have a paycheck that further increases demand.

Wanniski decided to turn the classical world of economics – which had operated on this simple demand-driven equation for seven thousand years – on its head. In 1974 he invented a new phrase – "supply side economics" – and suggested that the reason economies grew wasn't because people had money and wanted to buy things with it but, instead, because things were available for sale, thus tantalizing people to part with their money. The more things there were, the faster the economy would grow.

At the same time, Arthur Laffer was taking that equation a step further. Not only was supply-side a rational concept, Laffer suggested, but as taxes went down, revenue to the government would go up!

Neither concept made any sense – and time has proven both to be colossal idiocies – but together they offered the Republican Party a way out of the wilderness.

Ronald Reagan was the first national Republican politician to suggest that he could cut taxes on rich people and businesses, that those tax cuts would cause them to take their surplus money and build factories or import large quantities of cheap stuff from low-labor countries, and that the more stuff there was supplying the economy the faster it would grow. George Herbert Walker Bush – like most Republicans of the time – was horrified. Ronald Reagan was suggesting "Voodoo Economics," said Bush in the primary campaign, and Wanniski's supply-side and Laffer's tax-cut theories would throw the nation into such deep debt that we'd ultimately crash into another Republican Great Depression.

But Wanniski had been doing his homework on how to sell supply-side economics. In 1976, he rolled out to the hard-right insiders in the Republican Party his "Two Santa Clauses" theory, which would enable the Republicans to take power in America for the next thirty years.

Democrats, he said, had been able to be "Santa Clauses" by giving people things from the largesse of the federal government. Republicans could do that, too – spending could actually increase. Plus, Republicans could be double Santa Clauses by cutting people's taxes! For working people it would only be a small token – a few hundred dollars a year on average – but would be heavily marketed. And for the rich it would amount to hundreds of billions of dollars in tax cuts. The rich, in turn, would use that money to import or build more stuff to market, thus increasing supply and stimulating the economy. And that growth in the economy would mean that the people still paying taxes would pay more because they were earning more.

There was no way, Wanniski said, that the Democrats could ever win again. They'd have to be anti-Santas by raising taxes, or anti-Santas by cutting spending. Either one would lose them elections.

When Reagan rolled out Supply Side Economics in the early 80s, dramatically cutting taxes while exploding (mostly military) spending, there was a moment when it seemed to Wanniski and Laffer that all was lost. The budget deficit exploded and the country fell into a deep recession – the worst since the Great Depression – and Republicans nationwide held their collective breath. But David Stockman came up with a great new theory about what was going on – they were "starving the beast" of government by running up such huge deficits that Democrats would never, ever in the future be able to talk again about national health care or improving Social Security – and this so pleased Alan Greenspan, the Fed Chairman, that he opened the spigots of the Fed, dropping interest rates and buying government bonds, producing a nice, healthy goose to the economy. Greenspan further counseled Reagan to dramatically increase taxes on people earning under $37,800 a year by increasing the Social Security (FICA/payroll) tax, and then let the government borrow those newfound hundreds of billions of dollars off-the-books to make the deficit look better than it was.

Reagan, Greenspan, Winniski, and Laffer took the federal budget deficit from under a trillion dollars in 1980 to almost three trillion by 1988, and back then a dollar could buy far more than it buys today. They and George HW Bush ran up more debt in eight years than every president in history, from George Washington to Jimmy Carter, combined. Surely this would both starve the beast and force the Democrats to make the politically suicidal move of becoming deficit hawks.

And that's just how it turned out. Bill Clinton, who had run on an FDR-like platform of a "new covenant" with the American people that would strengthen the institutions of the New Deal, strengthen labor, and institute a national health care system, found himself in a box. A few weeks before his inauguration, Alan Greenspan and Robert Rubin sat him down and told him the facts of life: he was going to have to raise taxes and cut the size of government. Clinton took their advice to heart, raised taxes, balanced the budget, and cut numerous programs, declaring an "end to welfare as we know it" and, in his second inaugural address, an "end to the era of big government." He was the anti-Santa Claus, and the result was an explosion of Republican wins across the country as Republican politicians campaigned on a platform of supply-side tax cuts and pork-rich spending increases.

Looking at the wreckage of the Democratic Party all around Clinton by 1999, Winniski wrote a gloating memo that said, in part: "We of course should be indebted to Art Laffer for all time for his Curve... But as the primary political theoretician of the supply-side camp, I began arguing for the 'Two Santa Claus Theory' in 1974. If the Democrats are going to play Santa Claus by promoting more spending, the Republicans can never beat them by promoting less spending. They have to promise tax cuts..."

Ed Crane, president of the Libertarian CATO Institute, noted in a memo that year: "When Jack Kemp, Newt Gingich, Vin Weber, Connie Mack and the rest discovered Jude Wanniski and Art Laffer, they thought they'd died and gone to heaven. In supply-side economics they found a philosophy that gave them a free pass out of the debate over the proper role of government. Just cut taxes and grow the economy: government will shrink as a percentage of GDP, even if you don't cut spending. That's why you rarely, if ever, heard Kemp or Gingrich call for spending cuts, much less the elimination of programs and departments."

George W. Bush embraced the Two Santa Claus Theory with gusto, ramming through huge tax cuts – particularly a cut to a maximum 15 percent income tax rate on people like himself who made their principle income from sitting around the pool waiting for their dividend or capital gains checks to arrive in the mail – and blowing out federal spending. Bush even out-spent Reagan, which nobody had ever thought would again be possible.

And it all seemed to be going so well, just as it did in the early 1920s when a series of three consecutive Republican presidents cut income taxes on the uber-rich from over 70 percent to under 30 percent. In 1929, pretty much everybody realized that instead of building factories with all that extra money, the rich had been pouring it into the stock market, inflating a bubble that – like an inexorable law of nature – would have to burst. But the people who remembered that lesson were mostly all dead by 2005, when Jude Wanniski died and George Gilder celebrated the Reagan/Bush supply-side-created bubble economies in a Wall Street Journal eulogy:

"...Jude's charismatic focus on the tax on capital gains redeemed the fiscal policies of four administrations. ... [T]he capital-gains tax has come erratically but inexorably down -- while the market capitalization of U.S. equities has risen from roughly a third of global market cap to close to half. These many trillions in new entrepreneurial wealth are a true warrant of the worth of his impact. Unbound by zero-sum economics, Jude forged the golden gift of a profound and passionate argument that the establishments of the mold must finally give way to the powers of the mind. He audaciously defied all the Buffetteers of the trade gap, the moldy figs of the Phillips Curve, the chic traders in money and principle, even the stultifying pillows of the Nobel Prize."

In reality, his tax cuts did what they have always done over the past 100 years – they initiated a bubble economy that would let the very rich skim the cream off the top just before the ceiling crashed in on working people.

The Republicans got what they wanted from Wanniski's work. They held power for thirty years, made themselves trillions of dollars, cut organized labor's representation in the workplace from around 25 percent when Reagan came into office to around 8 of the non-governmental workforce today, and left such a massive deficit that some misguided "conservative" Democrats are again clamoring to shoot Santa with working-class tax hikes and entitlement program cuts.

And now Boehner, McCain, Brooks, and the whole crowd are again clamoring to be recognized as the ones who will out-Santa Claus the Democrats. You'd think after all the damage they've done that David Gregory would have simply laughed Boehner off the program – much as the American people did to the Republicans in the last election – although Gregory is far too much a gentleman for that. Instead, he merely looked incredulous; it was enough.

The Two Santa Claus theory isn't dead, as we can see from today's Republican rhetoric. Hopefully, though, reality will continue to sink in with the American people and the massive fraud perpetrated by Wanniski, Reagan, Laffer, Graham, Bush(s), and all their "conservative" enablers will be seen for what it was and is. And the Obama administration can get about the business of repairing the damage and recovering the stolen assets of these cheap hustlers.

Thom Hartmann (thom at thomhartmann.com) is a Project Censored Award-winning New York Times best-selling author, and host of a nationally syndicated daily progressive talk program on the Air America Radio Network. www.thomhartmann.com His most recent books are "The Last Hours of Ancient Sunlight," "Unequal Protection: The Rise of Corporate Dominance and the Theft of Human Rights," "We The People: A Call To Take Back America," "What Would Jefferson Do?," "Screwed: The Undeclared War Against the Middle Class and What We Can Do About It," and "Cracking The Code: The Art and Science of Political Persuasion." His newest book, due out this summer, is Threshold.




Edited by Slartibartfast - January 28 2009 at 16:00
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 28 2009 at 13:13

Well, in America it's not getting any better.  And it isn't going to as long as the Fed keeps printing money out of thin air, and as long as we keep pumping money into this useless war that we never shoud've been a part of in the first place.

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 28 2009 at 15:57

Economic downturn ? The Scottish shipbuilding industry desperate need at least 1000 workers now. They had a big recruitment drive yesterday. The biggest recruitment drive since 1965, in fact. That was the last time anyone was looking for shipbuilders here. How ironic !! 

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 28 2009 at 16:00
Originally posted by toroddfuglesteg toroddfuglesteg wrote:

Economic downturn ? The Scottish shipbuilding industry desperate need at least 1000 workers now. They had a big recruitment drive yesterday. The biggest recruitment drive since 1965, in fact. That was the last time anyone was looking for shipbuilders here. How ironic !! 



Good for you guys if you have the skill to take a position.  Any idea what's behind the need?




Edited by Slartibartfast - January 28 2009 at 17:53
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 28 2009 at 16:33
The lack of tonnage in the British Navy. They need more hangarships and fighter planes to assist the US Navy to hunt down the geese/big birds who are sinking those airplanes into the Hudson River in New York. 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 28 2009 at 16:37
Have you seen The World Factbook produced by the CIA. Assuming that the stats are fairly accurate (even though some, understandably, are a bit out of date) it makes for some thought-churning reading. Hit on the bar chart icon for country comparisons. US and UK account for nearly half of the world external debt.  Shocked
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 28 2009 at 17:52
Originally posted by toroddfuglesteg toroddfuglesteg wrote:

The lack of tonnage in the British Navy. They need more hangarships and fighter planes to assist the US Navy to hunt down the geese/big birds who are sinking those airplanes into the Hudson River in New York. 


Big Bird?  Noooooooo.

http://www.fromourheart.com/Store/images/Sesame_Street/Big_Bird_14.jpg
Released date are often when it it impacted you but recorded dates are when it really happened...

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 28 2009 at 22:29
Originally posted by Slartibartfast Slartibartfast wrote:

Good reading:

Published on Monday, January 26, 2009 by CommonDreams.org

Two Santa Clauses or How The Republican Party Has Conned America for Thirty Years

by Thom Hartmann

There are so many twisted facts and so much nonsense in this article.....
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 29 2009 at 15:13

President Obama says that "economists from across the political spectrum agree" on the need for massive government spending to stimulate the economy.

 In fact, many economists disagree. Hundreds of them, including Nobel laureates and other prominent scholars, have signed the statement that appears in the Cato Institute's ad in the New York Times and in other national publications.

http://www.cato.org/

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 29 2009 at 18:14
Originally posted by limeyrob limeyrob wrote:

Have you seen The World Factbook produced by the CIA. Assuming that the stats are fairly accurate (even though some, understandably, are a bit out of date) it makes for some thought-churning reading. Hit on the bar chart icon for country comparisons. US and UK account for nearly half of the world external debt.  Shocked
 
Concerned by this information I went to the Wikipedia for checking the ratio debt vs GDP and I was really surprised:
 
Almost all the so-called "1st World" countries have galactic ratios while BRIC and other emergent countries apparently have reasonable debts.
 
It looks like that the richness of many countries is somewhat artificial and for a fast recovery of the world economy some global reassessment must be made (although I know that other variables count too). 


Edited by Atkingani - January 29 2009 at 18:16
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 29 2009 at 18:36
Originally posted by IVNORD IVNORD wrote:

Originally posted by Slartibartfast Slartibartfast wrote:

Good reading:

Published on Monday, January 26, 2009 by CommonDreams.org

Two Santa Clauses or How The Republican Party Has Conned America for Thirty Years

by Thom Hartmann

There are so many twisted facts and so much nonsense in this article.....


Both sides are equally adept in "twisted facts and nonsense..."Wink
...that moment you realize you like "Mob Rules" better than "Heaven and Hell"
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 29 2009 at 19:27
Originally posted by Finnforest Finnforest wrote:

Originally posted by IVNORD IVNORD wrote:

Originally posted by Slartibartfast Slartibartfast wrote:

Good reading:

Published on Monday, January 26, 2009 by CommonDreams.org

Two Santa Clauses or How The Republican Party Has Conned America for Thirty Years

by Thom Hartmann

There are so many twisted facts and so much nonsense in this article.....


Both sides are equally adept in "twisted facts and nonsense..."Wink


But you must admit Ivnord did an excellent point by point rebuttal. LOL
Released date are often when it it impacted you but recorded dates are when it really happened...

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