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Topic ClosedCovid-19 and the madness of crowds

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lazland View Drop Down
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 14 2020 at 10:30
Originally posted by SteveG SteveG wrote:

Originally posted by lazland lazland wrote:

Originally posted by SteveG SteveG wrote:

Originally posted by Atavachron Atavachron wrote:

I understand that and I'm not against it, but it does nothing to actually help people, it just provides numbers to doctors that will change soon anyway.   If a community can't handle the patients that need care, testing does nothing to change that.

What we need en masse are not test kits, but home ventilators and plenty of flu medicine so if you do get it at least you can have some small comfort at home.


David, an once of prevention is worth a pound of cure. That's as true now as it was in Ben Franklin's time. Prevent people from getting ill and you won't have to worry about treating them.

I’m sorry, Steve, but if I understand you correctly, you are wrong. Testing has never prevented any spread of infection. It just tells you how many have been infected, and even then it is fairly worthless because the overwhelming majority of people getting this will not be ill enough to warrant testing anyway, so the numbers are horribly skewed to make this virus seem worse than it actually is.
I’m sorry, Steve, but if I understand you correctly, you are wrong. Wink  If we test people who are not symptomatic, then we isolate the right people and reduce the spread. I don't see a need for testing otherwise, as their symptoms would be obvious.

Naturally, I accept that once a positive test has been performed, and that person isolated, then he or she will, in theory, not infect anybody else. However, given that they would have been running about for days on end before the test infecting others, then the test, in itself, will not have prevented the spread of the infection prior to the test, and the same with those others before testing, and so on, and so forth.

My understanding of what you are saying is that you would like to see a mass test of every citizen? In order to then isolate those who are positive? Quite apart from the fact that the infrastructure for such actions is patently not there, certainly here and where you live, isn’t that a tad over the top?

I am a news junky. I love reading, listening, and watching current affairs. However, we are now in our third day of a news channel ban in the house. I still read the paper, but rather wish that I don’t. It is on all day and night. Constant barrage, and it reminds me very much of visiting clerics in centuries past putting the fear of God into simple residents by promising eternal hellfire if said simple folk did not obey this religious stricture, or that particular clerical rule. Mass fear is nearly always more dangerous to a society than the causation. The economic fallout from this is likely to be shocking. The ability of governments of all shapes, sizes, and political colour to impose draconian measures in the name of an emergency is something all free thinking people should always shy away from, and be fearful of.

An example. Those face masks worn by absolutely everybody in China. Those people wear them because they are told to. They have absolutely nil impact on stopping any virus. Also, by the way, they don’t particularly help to combat the appalling air pollution uniquely created by their very own rulers in the first place. Why wear them, then? Because, on pain of punishment, they have to. They have to conform. That makes them a very docile and easily manipulated population, which suits their rather nasty government very well indeed, because a fearful population is easier to control. Just like those medieval populations I referred to earlier.

I do not wish to put across that I do not care about Covid-19 at all. Quite clearly, there is a section of the population for whom this is very dangerous indeed. It is not, however, a repeat of the bubonic plague, or 1918 “Spanish flu “, and I find the continuous media and internet reporting far more distressing.

Let me give an example. Yesterday, the Wales v Scotland rugby international in Cardiff was called off at the last minute. Organisers and governments are cancelling events left right and centre, which will have a huge impact on the long term for people’s well-being and economic health. Yet, at the same time, I was expected this week, alongside millions of others worldwide, to carry on travelling on public transport (packed with people) and attend meetings in offices, not the healthiest of environments, as if everything was carrying on as normal. How do you explain such stupidity, if this really was a humanity threatening plague? I read in the paper this morning that the Czech government has closed its borders (no doubt quite gleefully - bloody foreigners, eh?), and is closing bars and restaurants of an evening. However, people are still expected to go to work as normal. How bloody stupid is that?

Experts. Half of the world now seems to be in a state of emergency. However, here Boris and the scientist boffins are saying that actually a build up to herd immunity is a good thing. The WHO are calling them imbecilic. Both of them cannot be right, can they?

Without wishing to in any way mitigate the impact on those who have, or will, lose loved ones, I find this whole saga deeply distressing, and the coverage of it deeply depressing. 600,000 people a year die from flu alone. That is considered normal. The scare stories and deeply intrusive actions taken over a virus which has barely infected, what, some 150,000 persons worldwide out of a population running into the billions, and with a likely death rate of less than 1% if you factor in all those people who experience extremely mild symptoms, and not, therefore, tested, strikes me as being of far more concern in the long run.

We are being infantilised. As a lifelong cynic and polemicist, I wonder to what end.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 14 2020 at 09:59
Originally posted by lazland lazland wrote:

Originally posted by SteveG SteveG wrote:

Originally posted by Atavachron Atavachron wrote:

I understand that and I'm not against it, but it does nothing to actually help people, it just provides numbers to doctors that will change soon anyway.   If a community can't handle the patients that need care, testing does nothing to change that.

What we need en masse are not test kits, but home ventilators and plenty of flu medicine so if you do get it at least you can have some small comfort at home.


David, an once of prevention is worth a pound of cure. That's as true now as it was in Ben Franklin's time. Prevent people from getting ill and you won't have to worry about treating them.

I’m sorry, Steve, but if I understand you correctly, you are wrong. Testing has never prevented any spread of infection. It just tells you how many have been infected, and even then it is fairly worthless because the overwhelming majority of people getting this will not be ill enough to warrant testing anyway, so the numbers are horribly skewed to make this virus seem worse than it actually is.
I’m sorry, Steve, but if I understand you correctly, you are wrong. Wink  If we test people who are not symptomatic, then we isolate the right people and reduce the spread. I don't see a need for testing otherwise, as their symptoms would be obvious.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 14 2020 at 09:54
Originally posted by SteveG SteveG wrote:

Originally posted by Atavachron Atavachron wrote:

I understand that and I'm not against it, but it does nothing to actually help people, it just provides numbers to doctors that will change soon anyway.   If a community can't handle the patients that need care, testing does nothing to change that.

What we need en masse are not test kits, but home ventilators and plenty of flu medicine so if you do get it at least you can have some small comfort at home.


David, an once of prevention is worth a pound of cure. That's as true now as it was in Ben Franklin's time. Prevent people from getting ill and you won't have to worry about treating them.

I’m sorry, Steve, but if I understand you correctly, you are wrong. Testing has never prevented any spread of infection. It just tells you how many have been infected, and even then it is fairly worthless because the overwhelming majority of people getting this will not be ill enough to warrant testing anyway, so the numbers are horribly skewed to make this virus seem worse than it actually is.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 14 2020 at 09:26
Originally posted by Catcher10 Catcher10 wrote:

Yea the whole testing thing seems to me just something else to add to all the stress. You don't need a test to know if you have the flu, you need a thermometer as fever is the main symptom. If you get flu like symptoms and also fever then you need to self quarantine. 

The other thing is so what if we had 10 million test kits?? You swab your mouth/throat and send it off to a lab and wait for results. This is the main issue, getting test results back......normally you go to the dr and get a test done blood or other and its few days to a week for results. People are yelling because they want it back in 5 minutes....mis-informed people.
To do that you would have to make all the labs drop everything and only process these swabs....not realistic.

I'm very pleased at what President Trump and VP Pence have put together with Walmart, Target, CVS, Walgreens, Quest Labs and others just now....That's massive to get all those people to work together to slow the spread and help those in the high risk areas.
This is the typical Republican stance. As long as Trump can''t get enough tests out to the public because he sat on his fat ass for weeks and did nothing, then they simply aren't needed or aren't effective.

Edited by SteveG - March 14 2020 at 09:27
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 14 2020 at 09:24
Originally posted by Atavachron Atavachron wrote:

I understand that and I'm not against it, but it does nothing to actually help people, it just provides numbers to doctors that will change soon anyway.   If a community can't handle the patients that need care, testing does nothing to change that.

What we need en masse are not test kits, but home ventilators and plenty of flu medicine so if you do get it at least you can have some small comfort at home.


David, an once of prevention is worth a pound of cure. That's as true now as it was in Ben Franklin's time. Prevent people from getting ill and you won't have to worry about treating them.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 13 2020 at 15:37
Denmark and Poland are closing their borders an many will follow suit
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 13 2020 at 15:35
I'm looking at Trump's national emergency speech right now.
Like yesterday's Oval Office speech, I'm wondering how it's possible that someone can f*ck up a pre-written delivery so thoroughly.
As the inflection is all wrong, it's obvious that he's not understanding large parts of what he's reading. It's amazing!
It's like watching someone during an acting audition who has been given a script just a few seconds earlier with no knowledge of the script, the role, or the circumstances. The struggle is painful to watch.

And has anyone noticed how the people standing behind him during these occasions seem to be suffering from a severe case of bobble-head?


Edited by npjnpj - March 13 2020 at 15:36
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 13 2020 at 15:19
Nobody could have done more or sooner.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 13 2020 at 14:53
Yea the whole testing thing seems to me just something else to add to all the stress. You don't need a test to know if you have the flu, you need a thermometer as fever is the main symptom. If you get flu like symptoms and also fever then you need to self quarantine. 

The other thing is so what if we had 10 million test kits?? You swab your mouth/throat and send it off to a lab and wait for results. This is the main issue, getting test results back......normally you go to the dr and get a test done blood or other and its few days to a week for results. People are yelling because they want it back in 5 minutes....mis-informed people.
To do that you would have to make all the labs drop everything and only process these swabs....not realistic.

I'm very pleased at what President Trump and VP Pence have put together with Walmart, Target, CVS, Walgreens, Quest Labs and others just now....That's massive to get all those people to work together to slow the spread and help those in the high risk areas.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 13 2020 at 14:13
I understand that and I'm not against it, but it does nothing to actually help people, it just provides numbers to doctors that will change soon anyway.   If a community can't handle the patients that need care, testing does nothing to change that.

What we need en masse are not test kits, but home ventilators and plenty of flu medicine so if you do get it at least you can have some small comfort at home.


"Too often we enjoy the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought."   -- John F. Kennedy
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 13 2020 at 14:05
I understand your point of view David, but you can't fight your enemy if you don't know where he is. And by that I mean forgoing quarantining people who shouldn't be and quarantining the ones who should be. Without testing, we're just guessing.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 13 2020 at 14:02
Originally posted by chopper chopper wrote:

I'm following an Italian doctor who has the virus on Twitter and also read this from someone who has it -
Without wishing to underestimate COVID-19 both of them have said they had worse flu than this one.

Yep.   The panic is spreading much worse than the virus.



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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 13 2020 at 14:00
I don't get the craze over testing other than to give health providers a rough number of who's infected.   Testing does nothing to help people who may be ill, and with this virus it's just a few days before those numbers change.   We don't need testing, we need easy-use home ventilators for those whose lungs are unhealthy and may collect fluid.   Beyond that, people should be doing what they should every flu season: hygiene, good diet & exercise, and common sense.   Testing does nothing to help people at risk.   It's become a red herring.

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 13 2020 at 10:34
I have the impression testing is deliberately being obstructed "to keep the numbers down". this does of course only make sense to Trump


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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 13 2020 at 09:09
Originally posted by chopper chopper wrote:

I'm following an Italian doctor who has the virus on Twitter and also read this from someone who has it -
Without wishing to underestimate COVID-19 both of them have said they had worse flu than this one.
This is fair enough, but it doesn't detract from the seriousness of the situation. We know that a lot of people who get the virus will have only mild symptoms. A lot of others will get seriously ill, and some of them will die.


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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 13 2020 at 08:45
I'm following an Italian doctor who has the virus on Twitter and also read this from someone who has it -
Without wishing to underestimate COVID-19 both of them have said they had worse flu than this one.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 13 2020 at 08:32
If you're over the age of 50, this COVID-19 threat is very real and quite imminent!

This is the statement from yesterday from my friend's UCSF task force:

https://www.linkedin.com/content-guest/article/notes-from-ucsf-expert-panel-march-10-dr-jordan-shlain-m-d-/

or you can read the original documents here:

https://www.ucsf.edu/coronavirus




Edited by BrufordFreak - March 13 2020 at 08:33
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 13 2020 at 08:15
14 days of work Ermm
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 13 2020 at 08:05
Originally posted by BrufordFreak BrufordFreak wrote:

Friends of mine in leadership roles in both the health care industry and emergency response are now saying that one-third to one-half of all Americans will contract COVID-19. 75-150 million Americans at a 3.5% death rate equals 2.65 million to 5.25 million American deaths at the end of this round (there are more rounds predicted for the 2020-2021 flu season). 

My point is: This seems to be real, not hype. Fear is a normal and acceptable response to looming mortality. 

Good luck, everybody!

The only thing is that current death rate estimates based on registered cases are probably overestimates, because many more milder than serious cases are in all likelihood not tested and counted. It's hard to estimate the true mortality because it depends on things that are not directly observable, but somewhere between 0.5 and 2% seems more realistic than 3.5%.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 13 2020 at 06:29
Well, it seems that virtually all major sports have been cancelled in the States except for NASCAR, which will run their circle parades without fans. Big woop. Pinch
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