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JJLehto
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Joined: April 05 2006
Location: Tallahassee, FL
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Points: 34550
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Posted: April 09 2015 at 13:33 |
No doubt technology plays a role, skill biased technological change I believe (?) and actually I did accidentally run this off the rails didn't mean for it to become the main point, I'm pretty OK with that type stuff: more education and technology driving more wealth and etc And I even agree with Roger the reality has been worse than the theory and it could be countered with better policy
My original point was just the role of capital and capital owners seems to have become pre great depression levels but in a way worse since, at the risk of sounding conservative , various "stability" policies just keep wealth afloat and not turning over. Thus the whole QE thing being really one massive bailout imho and I think that is something that is never spoken about, (maybe not even realized). It and it's impacts have had near 0 benefit for most of us, but a boon for the top and I do question how much of it is sincere or just more of the same. I mean OWS became so huge, Piketty and this talk of inequality and capital but no one realizes/speaks how wealth has rebounded and then some thanks to QE or the "Greespan Put" of never letting anything go wrong ever, and never letting asset prices fall. Ideology or boon for the capital class and its benefactors?
Edited by JJLehto - April 09 2015 at 13:54
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Blacksword
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Joined: June 22 2004
Location: England
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Points: 16130
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Posted: April 09 2015 at 07:21 |
There is a clear move away from national protectionism with initiatives like the TTIP and the TTP, which will allow corporations to ride roughshod over governments and to even sue governments if they attempt to block private corporations trying to buy up public owned assets.
The TTIP is an EU/US initiative, which the British Labour Party has said it will only sign up to if the British health service is expempt from being bought up by the likes of Google or Lockhead Martin, but as we are an EU member state I'm not sure how much negotiating clout we really have on our own. I'd like to see Labour actually opposing it, but to not sign up to it would mean withdrawel from the EU and that's not what Labour stand for.
I'm sorry to sound like a conspiracy theorist but sometimes you have to see things as they actually are and not how they are reported. The TTIP is demonstrably and obviously of no benefit to you and I, and is clearly another move to globalise our economies further and to consolidate wealth in the hands of the very few. I'm surprised and slightly disappointed that some folk don't see it. It doesn't help that the media is so quiet about it. That in itself should set alarm bells ringing.
It's a shame because it affects the future of everyones children. It'll ultimately mean the Amercian dream of private property owenership and economic independence will have to be re-appraised and going forward we will all have to settle for a lot less than we're used to. They'll tell us it's "for the planet" but sadly it will really be for "them"
IMO..
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Ultimately bored by endless ecstasy!
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rogerthat
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Joined: September 03 2006
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Points: 9869
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Posted: April 08 2015 at 19:40 |
I think wage flattening is also very much a technological effect, with the Information Age tools themselves overcoming regulatory barriers, often flouting them with alacrity. Sometimes it seems to be justified too. Wholesalers and intermediaries here collude with politicians to hold consumers to ransom, hiking prices of vegetables at the slightest whiff of rain or lack thereof and refusing to bring them down even when there is a good harvest. But with India's largest ecommerce provider flipkart throwing its hat into the groceries space, these guys may just get screwed. There are already other ecommerce operators in groceries but they were content to make decent margins on their sales. flipkart has a lot of equity to burn and will disrupt the market place with its pricing. In one shot, it may very well achieve what successive govts promised and failed to - break the back of cartelisation among the intermediaries. So in a nutshell, when somebody thinks he can play the game real smart and con people in broad daylight forever, the market harnesses technology to come up with alternative solutions. I have expressed my concerns over free trade earlier in the discussion. But if free trade has indeed become so popular, it is possibly also a symptom of the malaise - that of govts not handling trade policy with reasonableness.
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Blacksword
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Joined: June 22 2004
Location: England
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Points: 16130
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Posted: April 08 2015 at 07:35 |
Such a complex debate, and a situation that will not have a positive outcome imo.
Globalisation will only benefit a relatively small number of people in the long run. It's not some philanthropic endeavor to bring paid work to the developing world. It's a means of maximising profits by minimising overheads. Thats it. That's all.
Corporations answer to their shareholders and lean on the political class to legislate in their favour, to ensure their relationship with shareholders stands a better chance of renaining intact.
In a globalised economy you may ultimately end up with a form of global communism - only with corporations in charge and not governments, in the sense that a degree of wage equality will eventually settle across the working world. The free movement of labour allows people to emmigrate from poor countries to wealthy countries where employers can afford to pay lower wages to those for whom minimum wage jobs are a godsend compared to what they're used to back home. The result is a drop in wages across the board for everyone, and a lowering of living standards, but a maximising of income for the very wealthy who run those corporations. So although the income spread across the general working population becomes more even, the gulf between the richest and poorest grows ever wider. I was under the impression people were upset about that, but ironically it appears to be so called "liberals" or perhaps "neo liberals" who are most in favour of this arrangement because they unquestioningly support the prinicple of free movement of labour at whatever overall cost.
That's my perception anyway.
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Ultimately bored by endless ecstasy!
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JJLehto
Prog Reviewer
Joined: April 05 2006
Location: Tallahassee, FL
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Points: 34550
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Posted: April 06 2015 at 11:28 |
This is very true. And I guess when I think about, there are people who do come here, leaving their families behind, to work. Really, I don't (and no one can) deny the global benefit...I just look at it through a US lens. Not being of the capitalist class, I say it's not unjustified to view it via country benefit and not global
Yeah that is all fair. It's why I more or less endorse very pro labor policies and let the cards fall where they do in regards to the rest. Only so much can be done anyway, especially today where a MNC can have its factories in Vietnam but run its profits through a shell company in Ireland and stash the money in a Luxembourg bank Unless truly global rules and standards are adopted, and I dont see this happening, I guess it is what it is. There will be collusion and countries will compete or bend rules to attract companies. Be it exchange rate manipulation, lax enviro standards/working conditions, low wages, or basically paying the company to move there.
Probably easier to simply let it all happen and counter these measures. Or as you say, pursue whatever policy you want, (like environmental) and devise programs to offshoot whatever job/income loss comes. Does seem to me the free market crowd is trying to win an impossible battle, I just don't see the US, Western/Central Europe etc "winning" the competition over let's say Bangladesh so why keep lowering various standards? I know I'm spoiled...$2/hr, 12 hours a day for 6 days a week is often the best opportunity in some places and they will accept toxic dumping, pollution, poor work standards to get it but I'd rather not see the US devolve into that
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rogerthat
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Points: 9869
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Posted: April 06 2015 at 01:48 |
While you as an American would not like to move to Vietnam for work, I would bet any number of Vietnamese would jump at the opportunity to work in America. A lot of people here in India would too. Thus lie the fault lines of globalization. First world labour resents outsourcing but opening up trade in emerging markets did also cause home grown firms to shut down and take jobs with them. Now the capitalist may say that is efficient since only the countries with greatest CTA ought to produce a given product. But advancement in healthcare has pushed life expectancy up, not down. Population is growing except in the advanced nations and what happens to the human race if Asia and Africa too start having fewer kids?! Who will capital sell its efficient produce to in such an event, lol. Again, this is really a distortion caused by the collusion of govts and big business. Far better to let each country set its own trade policy and bear the consequences than to force open markets without following through on unintended effects.
Edited by rogerthat - April 06 2015 at 11:13
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JJLehto
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Joined: April 05 2006
Location: Tallahassee, FL
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Points: 34550
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Posted: April 05 2015 at 20:25 |
I was gunna say, those conditions you mention aren't really reality. And not that labor isn't fee to move, in itself, but ya know I can't exactly just up and move to Vietnam. And I'm young and single, imagine if I had a family! I just think the pressure it creates on jobs, and especially wages, is negative and this isn't kosher but "being competitive" basically means downward pressure on wages and conditions in general. I think maybe the theory works more in textbooks of the older days where capital wasn't as mobile, (the notorious MNC ha!)ya know, where everything was largely "in country" and not like today how entities shift capital and labor around at ease but within a company itself. I guess you already said it best. Despite the positive results it does bring of course.
I recall from political economy reading about BMW and Mercedes and how various US states basically competed with each other to offer the best package possible (tax breaks, road repair, even buying land and etc) for them to move a factory there, and IDK maybe that's just how it is but seems the competition thing has gotten a little warped in reality from the theory
Edited by JJLehto - April 05 2015 at 20:37
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rogerthat
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Posted: April 04 2015 at 21:31 |
I am overall in favour of free trade. But only in an environment where there is free movement of labour and no reserve currency or a basket of reserve currencies so that monetary policy is ultimately more market determined. Otherwise, it's bound to create distortions in the labour market, creating more jobs in one market than it takes from the other.
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JJLehto
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Location: Tallahassee, FL
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Posted: April 04 2015 at 10:44 |
Perhaps! I know very well the arguments in support of free trade, globalization, all of it and I know there are some advantages but even I find it hard to totally swallow the results. Here in the states "Outsourcing" has become a word that causes left and right to both spit in anger, and the perpetual lack of job security in so many positions doesnt help. The intl competition I think has brought some negative results and pressures, that need to be countered in some way (prob by gov spending) So I think that could very well be a reason for increasing disengagement.
And we've discussed the various way this feeling is manifesting in the US and Europe, extreme libertarian/anti gov shifts or dis-integration and xenophobia fueled nationalism
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rogerthat
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Posted: April 04 2015 at 01:08 |
There has been talk of capital controls, so it's indeed possible that we will turn the clock back. With the latest of the WTO stalemates, the stage is set for disparate mega agreements to replace one multi lateral agreement for all trading nations. It is strange that at a time when information technology has created inexorable momentum in favour of greater interdependence, govt policies seem to be headed in the direction of disengagement and protectionism. Maybe it's because of the monster of anemic job creation unleashed simultaneously along with, once again, weak demand.
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JJLehto
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Joined: April 05 2006
Location: Tallahassee, FL
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Posted: April 04 2015 at 00:47 |
Yeah, I hate to use those divisive terms but to basically simplify it, that was my opinions of QE: Another trickle down, top of the ladder bailout program even if that wasn't the original intent. Also I have no proof of this, but my gut really questions the impact (and even if itd be good) of the wealth effect, and ok t hey get the yield curve flattened, great, why would I as a business owner respond? There's still no demand (aka need for more workers) and why would I make a long term investment knowing at some point those rates will go up? I can't decide if they're out of ideas or it really IS a boon for the "1%" is all.
. Maybe it's just too 'harsh' but I can't believe progressives like Krugman or Stiglitz, or even Piketty, made note of how wealth has rebounded instantly. Call me a free marketer but I thought financial crisis and failure was the ultimate key to wealth turnover and prevent an aristocracy from forming. More than tax changes and etc I just think the rise of finance and Fed behavior of never letting anything bad happen, is largely to blame.
That's a great point, the global response does indeed show just that: leftism is dead. Even the UK didn't pursue a gov solution, just more modern ideas like QE. Heck even the US response was quite mild. Indeed, as discussed here before I don't think current Keynesian thought is necessarily the best way to go. The painful but perhaps better way is to prevent the crises...restrain and regulate, or some have even mentioned capital controls again. I still am interested in the idea of jobs programs though of course it should be well thought out at the local level
But yeah, even a mild liberal response is better than austerity, and Europe should prove this.
Edited by JJLehto - April 04 2015 at 00:50
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rogerthat
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Posted: April 03 2015 at 22:49 |
In effect, the responses to the 2008 crisis suggest that, contrary to what our libertarian friends would say here, leftist economics has been discredited almost permanently in US and Europe. They did not turn to Keynes when they had the opportunity. Instead, Europe went with austerity and US and UK preferred QE. They have tried to somehow work out a solution to the problem that does not involve bringing back govt in a big way. In 2008 there was harsh criticism of capitalism and speculation as to how the US would respond. There have since been popular anti-capitalist movements like Occupy Wall Street but it seems govt is firmly against revisiting the Roosevelt-Kennedy era policies. On the other hand, it would also be remiss to say they were unequivocally wrong in making this choice because Keynesian stimulus didn't work so well in China and India. China didn't really have much of a need for more highways and more railroads, so they created white elephants with the stimulus. In India, projects got embroiled in red tape, protests by activists where land needed to be acquired and such so that the money made available for investment never got utilised and instead flowed into real estate, pricing some of the bigger cities possibly out of the market.
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rogerthat
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Posted: April 03 2015 at 22:43 |
Yeah, as the BoE article states, QE started out with the aim of moving toxic assets to govt ownership. The idea then may have been to support banks and prevent them from failing again. Later on, it seems to have become a means to artificially inflate asset prices in the hope of stimulating economic activity. As you said, enrich the top 1%. It would appear then to be a 21st century rehash of trickle down theory in effect. Hoping that somehow all the property and stock market action would percolate down to the economy. To some extent, it has in the US and Germany too has seen an uptick post the ECB's version of QE. But as we discussed earlier, the results would have probably been better had QE also been backed by public investment. That would have directly created employment and triggered the so called virtuous circle.
Edited by rogerthat - April 03 2015 at 22:43
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JJLehto
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Joined: April 05 2006
Location: Tallahassee, FL
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Points: 34550
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Posted: April 03 2015 at 10:34 |
All makes sense.
Crazy me, I thought the lesson from the GD was a central bank shouldn't let the money supply collapse. Though it does seem good ol Milty was indeed wrong in his policy prescription, the money supply can't be "controlled" in the strict manner he wanted. At least not under fractional... even though he correctly observed the money supply/well being link. Yeah I guess he had it a bit backwards, they economy moves the money supply largely!
Speaking of QE, this all raises another interesting question. As you know QE is just buying assets off the banks, (do we know what officially? I thought it was a lot of those "toxic assets" they had) and thus stuffing them full of money and the reserves of course held by the CB. This doesn't "throw $ in the economy" as stated but, I believe, hopes to lower the yield curve + create a wealth effect via this stock market boom. Sooooooo with banking working this way in reality, how necessary is QE? Banks don't need reserves, especially in this large amount. The money has largely circulated around the baking system with little if any getting out into the economy, has the QE money gone just to keep them solvent? That is what the lender of last resort is for but yeah, is QE basically another bailout?
Please tell me if I'm wrong but seems the set up, and results, has been to remove those bad assets from the banks, and the swelling stock market helps well those who hold stock Seems like a big 1% (I hate that term though) boon. I'm sure you've seen the numbers, bank lending stagnant/decreasing but very profitable, the top earners saw their wealth rebound and skyrocket higher. Was QE at least necessary? Like would the banks have gone under without it? If not, I think perhaps this has been, even if inadvertent, a boon for the top. If those big banks would fail, shoot maybe best to just put em in receivership, strip em down/lay off/unwind stuff and return em, or let em fall? EDIT: OH and of course all those reserves created by QE earn that .25% interest or whatever, a pathetic amount, but it's not like once the economy picks up they can get higher return by lending it. They have no need for reserves to lend, as we know.
Edited by JJLehto - April 03 2015 at 10:45
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rogerthat
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Posted: April 02 2015 at 11:43 |
I think deposits as well as reserve money in fact serve as (necessary) constraints on the amount of money a commercial bank may 'create'. The former emerges through competition. As in the mortgage example, when the seller receives compensation for the property sold, he will park it in the bank and a deposit is created. This bank may or may not be the one which has loaned out the mortgage. It is covered in the BoE article, by the by. Whereas reserve money would appear to be directly impacted by the open market operations of the central bank as also any statutory constraints they may impose on banks. Like a Cash Reserve Ratio for instance. Thus, it may be said that the creation of money is largely endogenous indeed subject to limitations placed by Central Bank, which however may be influenced more by inflation and asset price movements rather than the quantum of money supply itself. The lesson learnt from the Great Depression seems to have been that the Central Bank ought not to try to manipulate the level of money supply. QE of course is one big exception.
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JJLehto
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Posted: March 30 2015 at 21:09 |
My question is, what is the role of deposits then, if they are not loaned out? Simply to earn interest? And what is thus the role of fractional reserve? I guess I just am struggling with this, esp not being versed in this double book accounting thing, I am trying to sort out these asset/liability movements and following the money
Also if this is simply a more detailed explanation of reality, why the difference? Is this simply too confusing? And to the original point, which was the claim the money supply is endogenous and the CB cant do much...do you feel this is accurate? That paper at least claims the CB, indirectly, is a major limit/creator on the money supply, even though banks and consumers seem to play a large role as well.
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rogerthat
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Posted: March 30 2015 at 01:45 |
Having read the article carefully, I can make sense of it now. Deposit here is simply an accounting signifier. As said in the article, the bank doesn't actually move cash when it lends a loan. It simply passes an accounting entry crediting the borrower's bank account with the amount. If it's a mortgage then the 'entry' will move from the borrower's account to the seller's. Let's get back to the original entry in my earlier comment. I can't make a credit to cash/bank because no actual cash has moved. Hence, I will credit a matching deposit to square off the asset. When an asset is created in the books, it must be against real resources expended, i.e consideration paid in cash or kind. Or it must be matched by a liability. The deposit liability is thus created to square off the loan asset created without parting with cash. It is actually consistent with what I learnt in the textbook, except the textbook didn't use the accounting concept of a matching liability.
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JJLehto
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Posted: March 29 2015 at 11:12 |
Yeah that's what thrown me for a loop too. Just to add to the mystery, people such as Merv King from the BoE, as well as others from the Fed, IMF and even BIS have said similar things. Adair Turner, if you know who that is I dont says " “Banks do not, as too many textbooks still suggest,take deposits of existing money from savers and lend it out to borrowers: they create credit and money ex nihilo [out of nothing] – extending a loan to the borrower and simultaneously crediting the borrower’s money account”
As for Keynes, I've not actually read his work so I'm not fully sure either, and I do hate relying on interpretations, especially since his run from "Be there to prevent crises" to he had a hatred of Capitalism sooooo As for econ history, of course govs started stepping in to stem crises more and more in recent history, you know spurred on from WWI, and of course the New Deal preceded Keynes' big work. It sounds like he really broke the mold by advocating for deficit spending at the time, while FDR still kept taxes high and tried to maintain some amount of balance. Like they accepted the gov could take actions but it had to be "paid for" and Keynes differed in that regard. Again I've heard different interpretations but I'm inclined to say Keynes did feel the state should have a direct, permanent role and bucked the old "equillibrium" notions. Seems he basically felt capitalism never ran "perfectly, with occasional hiccup/slide" as was taught but it's more or less permanently out of whack and needs gov there, in some form, to keep it from falling apart. Is what I take from it.
Personally, I am more inclined to the latter strategy you mentioned, investment in capital, human or physical, social and physical infrastructure, perhaps environmental concerns. I see this as longer term better than simply welfare though I have no issue with that per se, and it may be better than these various demand boosting tactics or stimulii packages that at least in the US seemed to be a very'leaky bucket' though better than nothing.
Edited by JJLehto - March 29 2015 at 11:22
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rogerthat
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Posted: March 29 2015 at 04:33 |
Double entry is the bedrock of accounting. If the term is used in any other sense in an accounting context, I am not aware of it. Basically, every transaction creates a debit and a credit and thus always affects two ledger accounts at the same time. The transaction of money going out of the bank to a customer's account would be represented by a credit to "cash/bank account" as it involves an outgo of cash for the bank and a debit to the "customer's account" or a general "mortgages" account as it creates a debtor/receivable asset. Perhaps, the proposition is that the very act of the bank giving out money as mortgage to the customer is treated as creation of money. This much I can follow. What I cannot yet follow is how it creates a deposit. A deposit received by the bank would involve an inflow of money and a liability on their part to the depositor. They are basically on opposite sides of the balance sheet so how a bank may treat a mortgage loaned out as a deposit beats me. I shall keep an open mind and read the BoE article in detail, though.
I think Keynes did very meaningful work in defining an economic role for the state. I am not really well versed in the history of economics so I cannot say if it was done before. But it is certainly far removed from neo classical theory. He tackled the question of how the state might mobilise savings to raise public investment which in turn would create jobs and thereby more demand, leading to more production and more jobs, etc. The best application of Keynesianism was probably observed in East Asian economies. I don't support their repression of household savings as well as taking away several civil liberties as a means to the end. But they have been far more successful than say India in propelling economic development through investment. It took far too long for India's economic think tanks to appreciate the importance of high savings to push investment. And even thereafter, nothing much has been done to deepen the reach of its financial sector to tap into savings locked in hard assets like gold and landholdings. It would appear that, especially since the 60s, Keynesian theory was used to fund welfare in the Western economies and welfare can stimulate demand by putting money in the hands of customers but does not by itself create productive assets. The East Asian economies created both productive assets as well as physical and social infrastructure. I am not saying their strategy did not have its own set of adverse consequences, but if the ultimate aim of government is the alleviation of poverty and providing a reasonable level of prosperity to many of its citizens, they were far more successful at that than India.
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JJLehto
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Posted: March 29 2015 at 02:52 |
rogerthat wrote:
I will have to read that in detail. Don't think I can manage it on a computer, will have to take a print and read it at leisure. It's a very new concept, which I haven't heard of before. Both from cash flow and accounting perspective, it doesn't resonate with me. It is when customers park deposits with the bank that they get funds, which can be lent out. Likewise, I get that a deposit is just a liability and not an asset. So how does money mortgaged out to a customer become a matching deposit?! I will have to read it carefully to get to terms with the implications of it. |
Yeah, it's bizarre to me and I am not really sure I grasp it. I came across this idea from more obscure guys like Steve Keen who cited the "monetary circuit theory" claiming that the banking sector itself creates money, and (I think) creates/destroys money by making and paying back loans. I really have no idea honestly! But the BoE did put that out which is what really intrigued me.
I asked you as well since you have accounting experience, and they seem to claim it involves double entry accounting or something.
Wow very funny you say that, I've been reading more and more about people saying just that: Keynes has been hijacked and "Keynesianism" really has moved from what he said, and especially more recent merges with the neoclassical ideals, and that debate these days has become pretty limited. There is variety between conservative Keynesians like Mankiw and liberals Krugman and Stiglitz, and of course the Chicago school and Harvard are pretty neo classical, but yeah...maybe there needs to be more debate including from heterodox ideas, and older/left behind economists that have some very intriguing ideas.
Edited by JJLehto - March 29 2015 at 03:00
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