Covid-19 and the madness of crowds |
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SteveG
Forum Senior Member Joined: April 11 2014 Location: Kyiv In Spirit Status: Offline Points: 20616 |
Posted: March 21 2020 at 10:43 | |||
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Angelo
Special Collaborator Honorary Collaborator / Retired Admin Joined: May 07 2006 Location: Italy Status: Offline Points: 13244 |
Posted: March 21 2020 at 10:34 | |||
The Alps are 45 minutes from our house by car. For the first time in a year we’ve been able to see them from here every day for a full week. The city of Milan is in between, says a lot. |
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ISKC Rock Radio
I stopped blogging and reviewing - so won't be handling requests. Promo's for ariplay can be sent to [email protected] |
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Angelo
Special Collaborator Honorary Collaborator / Retired Admin Joined: May 07 2006 Location: Italy Status: Offline Points: 13244 |
Posted: March 21 2020 at 10:31 | |||
I meant the same. It is not flattening... |
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ISKC Rock Radio
I stopped blogging and reviewing - so won't be handling requests. Promo's for ariplay can be sent to [email protected] |
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micky
Special Collaborator Honorary Collaborator Joined: October 02 2005 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 46838 |
Posted: March 21 2020 at 10:18 | |||
interesting.. and perhaps why we are being warned the new normal for as long as next year is living with this.
we are learning about the bug The virus is much more infectious than influenza or the SARS virus, which it closely resembles. This week, new data showed that SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, can live on contaminated surfaces as the SARS virus can, so it may spread, sometimes explosively, from doorknobs, elevator buttons and contaminated surfaces in hospitals and elsewhere. But we also learned that, unlike SARS, patients become highly infectious before they become seriously ill, explaining at least in part why Covid-19 acts like a super-SARS, far more infectious than its vanquished cousin. and on that note.. fresh in the news this morning... looks like we are giving up on trying to contain it..too much economic interests at play to do what needs to be done and shut it down.. but trying to mitagate the numbers that will die from it. Quite simply.. our substandard and for profit health care system is already being overwhemed. We can't even test for it. Which means this will likely be around for months... and months ... which is what the experts feared once it got here. short story summation... we are on our own with this one.. doctors are being advised not to test those experiencing only mild respiratory symptoms unless “a diagnostic result will change clinical management or inform public health response.” The recommendation reflects a "shifting from a strategy of case containment to slowing disease transmission and averting excess morbidity and mortality," according to the statement. |
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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micky
Special Collaborator Honorary Collaborator Joined: October 02 2005 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 46838 |
Posted: March 21 2020 at 09:28 | |||
again..I'm a knuckle dragging idiot whose only talents are... I'll get back to you on that once I figure out what those that don't involve having 9 lives and a failure to put myself into an early grave with self abuses ... or other 'talents' that are probably TMI for the forum.
I'm no doctor of course.. but disregarding China and what they report.. we do have hard numbers from outside China and there is a difference between the mortality rates (disregarding Iran for several reasons) between the two countries most affected. That are neither totalitarian as China nor blatently corrupt and politically self serving as ours. One has a much higher rate of mortality and both similar in pertient ways. Very close in smoking rates, high percentage in older populations, modern densely packed soceities with excellent health care. perhaps it isn't a mutation per se but genetic. It is entierely possible that asians are more resistant to this than westerners. Be it diet, genetics.. whatever. For what S.K. has reported.. yes I can see a plausibility of the possibility that there was much less impact on the Chinese people than it might here upon us in the west. anyhow.. the numbers are what they are for a comparitable soceity to ours. Italy and this virus is not a world ender.. but is likely to be a world changer. It isn't the f**king flu. Mortality rate appears to be in the 2-4 percent range which is much much higher than the common bug or influenza.
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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Tapfret
Special Collaborator Honorary Collaborator / Retired Admin Joined: August 12 2007 Location: Bryant, Wa Status: Offline Points: 8594 |
Posted: March 21 2020 at 09:27 | |||
Speaking of which, Russia is definitely a place that I feel has been less than forthcoming about their covid numbers. No way they have only 250 cases sharing a 2000 mile border with patient zero. |
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Tapfret
Special Collaborator Honorary Collaborator / Retired Admin Joined: August 12 2007 Location: Bryant, Wa Status: Offline Points: 8594 |
Posted: March 21 2020 at 09:20 | |||
Not likely. The evaluations have already begun regarding what made South Korea's response so successful. The article is interesting in its first few paragraphs pointing out who runs the biotech firms. Brains, not suits. Who would have thunk it? As far as Italy goes, the greatest healthcare systems in the world have a breaking point. Once your critical care need exceeds your critical care capacity, your mortality rate from any etiology escalates. |
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lazland
Prog Reviewer Joined: October 28 2008 Location: Wales Status: Offline Points: 13722 |
Posted: March 21 2020 at 09:10 | |||
Possible, yes, but somewhat unlikely, I feel. If the figures in China are accurate, then this is not a pandemic with the potential to wipe us all out, end of. Yes, people would die, but not on the scale of harsh pandemics of the past. It is possible, indeed pretty likely, that the figures in China for infection numbers are understated. If that is the case, then the mortality rate is, of course, overstated, if the mortality figures are accurate. It is also entirely feasible that both are understated, and this was a political decision by a shocking totalitarian government whose existence was felt to be under threat owing to its slow initial response. Of course, victory over the virus, orchestrated by the State, and the brave comrade citizens, is the only outcome which matters, at any cost, really, including, naturally, telling huge porkies to all and sundry. Thing is, that could all go very much tits up if the virus proves to be a wee bit more resilient than that, as most viruses are, of course. I am not a conspiracy theorist. I do, though, from years of experience, have a great deal of internal scepticism about what we are told, and the rationale behind most political decisions, especially when one is dealing with terrible regimes. Call Trump and Boris what you will, but neither are remotely on the Xi or Putin scale.
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micky
Special Collaborator Honorary Collaborator Joined: October 02 2005 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 46838 |
Posted: March 21 2020 at 08:58 | |||
oh I would trust anything the Chinese say only slightly less than our own governments haha.
there is a lot about this that doesn't add up or make sense about this virus.. take the differences between in how badly those who were infected South Korea and Italy were affected. Both modern soceities with good health care and assesible health care. Astounding in the differences in the mortality rate.. and why are they so? it is entirely possible it has mutated and become more dangerous as it has spread. |
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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Tapfret
Special Collaborator Honorary Collaborator / Retired Admin Joined: August 12 2007 Location: Bryant, Wa Status: Offline Points: 8594 |
Posted: March 21 2020 at 08:48 | |||
I'm not talking about 3 weeks to ending restrictions and social distancing measures. Far from it. I'm talking 3 weeks to "flattening the curve". Admittedly, extremely difficult to measure as testing has been slow, to put it mildly. In the US Pacific Northwest it is likely the virus was in the community for a couple weeks before symptomatic testing even started. So right now the US doubling rate is pretty skewed (2.4 days vs 5-8 days for most worldwide studies). However you look at it, with 330,000,000 people, 3 weeks at the current rate of virulence will be devastating. Anyway, I am far from saying that we will be filling stadiums in 3 weeks, or even opening restaurants. Just pointing out the trend is likely to flatten in that time. Flattening does not mean ending, just making the doubling time weeks, rather than days. Even with that, systemic strains on emergency and intensive care will be profound. As a health care worker I can assure you that I am well aware that the sh*t that is coming will be heavy and sustained. I've already worked on one of the covid units and I am certain in 7-14 days we will all be covid units. Anyway, hope you and your family/friends are safe and healthy. Good luck. |
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lazland
Prog Reviewer Joined: October 28 2008 Location: Wales Status: Offline Points: 13722 |
Posted: March 21 2020 at 08:39 | |||
without wishing to deflate the upbeat tone of Greg and Micky re air pollution, there was a report in my paper today that President Xi has declared the virus well and truly beaten, and commuting and industrial outputs in China are returning to normal.
Two things. First, I really do not believe and trust the Chinese authorities or figures if this virus is as devastating as we are told. The numbers simply do not stack up, in my opinion. There are millions of them, and the strict edicts they put in place were quite a long time after it became apparent there was a lurgy floating about. Sorry to bang on about this, but the number of people infected over there is utterly minuscule when compared to population. Second, returning to normal pollution and climate destroying outputs. Do we never learn?
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Enhance your life. Get down to www.lazland.org
Now also broadcasting on www.progzilla.com Every Saturday, 4.00 p.m. UK time! |
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micky
Special Collaborator Honorary Collaborator Joined: October 02 2005 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 46838 |
Posted: March 21 2020 at 08:28 | |||
yeah Greg.. the best thing that could have happend to old mother earth could be the vrrus. Some really interesting writiing out there on how the virus and climate change will likely be interelated, not directly obviously but having the failure to handle one being a lesson on how the 2nd is tackeled
people might not care about their children's children..to say nothing of 'bought' politicians...and the hazy future... but people they are directly affected by a political-economic system that did nothing to protect them, cares more about stock values and big business corporate interests and they die.. get ruined finanically by a system that cares nothing for them.. they might finally demand a change. The movement toward reprioritorization was already there and has been growing.. this might be the gasoline it really needed to affect real change. |
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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The Dark Elf
Forum Senior Member VIP Member Joined: February 01 2011 Location: Michigan Status: Offline Points: 13108 |
Posted: March 21 2020 at 07:36 | |||
Huh...would you look at that....Man-made pollution and carbon emissions dropped dramatically in Italy and China when the Coronavirus caused people and governments to change their habits. So the pandemic has had an unintended effect - less air pollution. Cleaner air can improve public health, maybe even save lives. People can change climate change. |
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micky
Special Collaborator Honorary Collaborator Joined: October 02 2005 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 46838 |
Posted: March 21 2020 at 07:08 | |||
^ and a realization that even that.. what you all have been doing isn't enough. Cases still increasing, edging closer to martial law it sounds like.
as far as the stupidity of it.. of course... look at the Senate's bill they are trying to ram through. A pittance to us.. and that goes to those (like me) that don't f**king need a 1000 dollar check. YET.. handouts a billions to corporations.. even overseas held ones (the cruise ship industry lobbiests finest work yet). This is a 9-11 moment.. I mean we are seeing it all in this lifetime of ours.. but a 9-11 moment in that life is going to change and will change moving forward and some of the smartest forward thinkers think it is finally the straw that broke the camel's back on the inherent stupidity of our system here. Political.. and economic and life after this passes might be very different from before this virus hit. People might finally wake up as they are getting f**ked royally up the ass by a government and econ-policial system that values the corporation over the worker.
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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lazland
Prog Reviewer Joined: October 28 2008 Location: Wales Status: Offline Points: 13722 |
Posted: March 21 2020 at 07:02 | |||
Hope you are okay over there, and you are right. This is going to last for quite some time, I fear.
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Enhance your life. Get down to www.lazland.org
Now also broadcasting on www.progzilla.com Every Saturday, 4.00 p.m. UK time! |
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Angelo
Special Collaborator Honorary Collaborator / Retired Admin Joined: May 07 2006 Location: Italy Status: Offline Points: 13244 |
Posted: March 21 2020 at 06:52 | |||
Oh, and forget about the three weeks, Tapfret. We’re three weeks into a four week lockdown and it’s likely to be extended by at least two more weeks.
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ISKC Rock Radio
I stopped blogging and reviewing - so won't be handling requests. Promo's for ariplay can be sent to [email protected] |
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Angelo
Special Collaborator Honorary Collaborator / Retired Admin Joined: May 07 2006 Location: Italy Status: Offline Points: 13244 |
Posted: March 21 2020 at 06:51 | |||
The stupidity of that is beyond words. Politics and money playing with your health...
On the other hand, I’m getting claustrophobic in the Italian lockdown. Been almost literally at the center since late February, I live 23km from the hospital where the first patient was reported. |
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ISKC Rock Radio
I stopped blogging and reviewing - so won't be handling requests. Promo's for ariplay can be sent to [email protected] |
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micky
Special Collaborator Honorary Collaborator Joined: October 02 2005 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 46838 |
Posted: March 21 2020 at 06:18 | |||
ummm... there is a vast differece in how China actively contained it and how we are... that is why the 'experts' are saying to prepare for 12 to 18 months of this unless we take Draconian measures.. which isn't likely to happen for poltical and practical reasons.
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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micky
Special Collaborator Honorary Collaborator Joined: October 02 2005 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 46838 |
Posted: March 21 2020 at 06:11 | |||
sorry to hear that.. caught via tests or actively sick? i suspect before all is said and done it will hit home and become personal for many. We have been keeping close tabs on friends and family in Italy and so far so good with everyone there. As far as here in the states... this week the scope of this really started to hit home. i work right next to a large and crazy busy catering place. Man how I bitched about those f**kers taking our parking.. polutting our fresh air with insanely good smells whenever I stepped outside for a smoke. Then suddenly.. Thursday I noticed.. gone. Everyone. Seems they lost over 2 million in bookings last week and seeing this is a long term not a blip.. they shut down. Laid off everyone.. for me that is when it hit home that life here has changed. Our company is considered semi essential so still working and will continue even if the Gov shut the state down as others have but fortunate to work for a employeed owns company whose CEO has told us if we do get shut down and sent home we are still being paid. Fortunate in that but most aren't.
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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Psychedelic Paul
Forum Senior Member Joined: September 16 2019 Location: Nottingham, U.K Status: Online Points: 41330 |
Posted: March 21 2020 at 06:07 | |||
I've been panic-buying bargain-price CD's, now that most of our charity shops are shutting down as of today. At least I'll have plenty of new music to listen to now until the world returns to some sense of sanity and normality again.
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