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Easy Money 
Special Collaborator
Honorary Collaborator / Retired Admin
Joined: August 11 2007
Location: Memphis
Status: Offline
Points: 10671
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 Posted: April 16 2020 at 08:32 |
 The Dark Elf wrote:
Equality 7-2521 wrote:
US COVID deaths have passed US influenza deaths for this year. So the just the flu people can officially stop throwing that ridiculous stat into the aether. |
Yes, I've actually seen some minimization comments on the Web relating this to the "common cold". Here in Michigan, we had a group of folks protesting in the state capitol because the inconvenience of not being able to go to Home Depot to buy grass seed and fertilizer ran counter to their Constitutional right to have a healthy front lawn. I believe it is a secondary item in the 2nd Amendment, the "Guns and Grass" clause. |
I saw a picture of the 'protesters', hilarious to say the least. It almost looked like one of those staged events cops do to try and catch outstanding warrants. It was that kind of crowd.
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Help the victims of the russian invasion:
http://www.jazzmusicarchives.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=28523&PID=130446&title=various-ways-you-can-help-ukraine#130446
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SteveG
Forum Senior Member
Joined: April 11 2014
Location: Kyiv In Spirit
Status: Offline
Points: 20616
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Posted: April 16 2020 at 08:04 |
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^ Geez-us. More people die getting hit by buses. Or thrown out of windows. Or something like that.
Edited by SteveG - April 16 2020 at 08:06
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This message was brought to you by a proud supporter of the Deep State.
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The Dark Elf
Forum Senior Member
VIP Member
Joined: February 01 2011
Location: Michigan
Status: Offline
Points: 13110
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Posted: April 16 2020 at 07:56 |
Equality 7-2521 wrote:
US COVID deaths have passed US influenza deaths for this year. So the just the flu people can officially stop throwing that ridiculous stat into the aether. |
Yes, I've actually seen some minimization comments on the Web relating this to the "common cold". Here in Michigan, we had a group of folks protesting in the state capitol because the inconvenience of not being able to go to Home Depot to buy grass seed and fertilizer ran counter to their Constitutional right to have a healthy front lawn. I believe it is a secondary item in the 2nd Amendment, the "Guns and Grass" clause.
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...a vigorous circular motion hitherto unknown to the people of this area, but destined
to take the place of the mud shark in your mythology...
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Equality 7-2521
Forum Senior Member
Joined: August 11 2005
Location: Philly
Status: Offline
Points: 15784
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Posted: April 16 2020 at 06:39 |
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US COVID deaths have passed US influenza deaths for this year. So the just the flu people can officially stop throwing that ridiculous stat into the aether.
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"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "
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Lewian
Prog Reviewer
Joined: August 09 2015
Location: Italy
Status: Offline
Points: 14934
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Posted: April 13 2020 at 04:01 |
@jamesbaldwin: I don't disagree with you on the Coronavirus situation, but other than that, the public health system in Germany is far from perfect and far from social democratic. There are bad things going on as are elsewhere, in other corners of the health system. I don't necessarily feel served worse in Italy by the health system than I did in Germany or the UK. The Germans basically got two things right: 1) They tested a lot early on, and 2) they have more beds for intensive therapy, by far the most in Europe as far as I know. There was also a lot of miscoordination over Coronavirus testing and documentation in Germany, and some think also there true mortality is quite a bit higher than recorded. Anyway, they did well overall compared to most others, that I give to them.
Well the Americans shouldn't comment on this as a result of European health systems anyway before they know their own results in the end...
Edited by Lewian - April 13 2020 at 04:03
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The Doctor
Special Collaborator
Honorary Collaborator
Joined: June 23 2005
Location: The Tardis
Status: Offline
Points: 8543
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Posted: April 12 2020 at 18:16 |
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I'm lucky to be living in a part of the country right now that has remained relatively unscathed by the virus. We only have 20 confirmed active cases in the county in which I reside. Also, I've been working from home for the past 4 years anyway, so aside from my wife and my cats, my daily interactions in person are limited anyway. Which is good because I do have high blood pressure and asthma (both of which are well-controlled) and I hit the big 5-0 last year. But I think we're pretty safe here especially since the only time we leave the house is to go to the grocery store (which is now limited to 50 people in the store at one time). And I'm also almost OCD in my hand-washing anyway (cat allergies + cats). But I do have to nag my wife sometimes to wash her hands.
I think there's a lot of blame to go around, from countries to presidents/prime ministers to governors and mayors. And some of it is beyond anyone's control. I think now would be a good time for everyone to come together, beat this thing down, get economies rolling again. And then we can all go back to political sniping. There are people in nursing homes dying. A neighbor of mine who is in her early 50s just overcame non-Hodgkins Lymphoma and has a very weakened immune system and something like this would be an almost guaranteed death sentence for her. My mother in law is 72 and quite diabetic. And 6.6 million people are out of work in the US because of this. I just hope we can get it under control soon and everyone can get back to living again.
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I can understand your anger at me, but what did the horse I rode in on ever do to you?
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jamesbaldwin
Prog Reviewer
Joined: September 25 2015
Location: Milano
Status: Offline
Points: 6036
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Posted: April 12 2020 at 10:48 |
Hello guys, this is the situation.
The whole world contributed to this massacre, the WTO is also guilty.
ITALY
1) Italy had not prepared itself before, and then did a few swabs (tests) to find the infected. In fact, it is not enough to be locked up in the houses, you have to find the infected, who are often asymptomatic, and isolate them from family members, put them in hotel rooms, otherwise they infect family members and strangers when leaving the house to do shopping. Serious mistake of Italy, which thus caused a catastrophe in Lombardy, where I live. And it is also the fault of the WHO because the WHO dont want to do test to asymptomatic subjects. Another fault: Italy had to close everything immediately. Fortunately, the Italian government made an extended closure to all of Italy even when there were few cases in central and southern Italy: in this way the number of infected and dead people in central and southern Italy is very limited. But in the North it is high. And in addition to the tested, ascertained dead, there are many unidentified persons which die in the house: why? Because public health has been dismantled in favor of private health, and so in Lombardy there have been few hospital beds and few intensive treatments, and this has caused the collapse of public hospitals.
Joe Biden criticized Bernie Sanders on television, in their face-to-face, because Sanders wanted public health. Biden replied: look at Italy, what a catastrophe with public health! But it's not true!!!! The Italian catastrophe concerns regions like Lombardy where there is little public health and there is a lot of private health! In other regions such as Veneto, where public health works well, and there are many places in hospitals and intensive care units, the numbers of deaths have been few. The same goes for Germany, where social democracy is in force, which guarantees public health for all: in Germany, so far they have managed to cure all those who needed.
Edited by jamesbaldwin - April 13 2020 at 16:47
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Amos Goldberg (professor of Genocide Studies at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem): Yes, it's genocide. It's so difficult and painful to admit it, but we can no longer avoid this conclusion.
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jamesbaldwin
Prog Reviewer
Joined: September 25 2015
Location: Milano
Status: Offline
Points: 6036
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Posted: April 12 2020 at 09:35 |
The real cases of Covid-19 are more than the tested: 5- 10 times more.
The real deaths caused by Covid-19 are 2-4 times more than the tested deaths by Covid-19.
We know very well this fact in Italy: on April the mortality is 2-3 times more than on April 2019.
So, now, possibly the deaths in the world are more than 200 thousands.
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Amos Goldberg (professor of Genocide Studies at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem): Yes, it's genocide. It's so difficult and painful to admit it, but we can no longer avoid this conclusion.
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lazland
Prog Reviewer
Joined: October 28 2008
Location: Wales
Status: Offline
Points: 13741
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Posted: April 12 2020 at 07:02 |
A piece of good news. Boris Johnson, the UK Prime Minister, has been discharged from hospital today to recuperate at his official country home.
In keeping with what I have been doing over the past couple of Sundays, I have quoted below an interesting piece from Rod Liddell of The Sunday Times, which runs nicely with some of the comments I have made in recent weeks (and, yes, I know that not everybody agrees, but it does spark interesting debate). Liddle is a well known polemicist in the UK, and I have enjoyed his writing for a number of years. The piece says:
“Many commentators rejoiced at the beginning of this crisis that we would now be governed by rational science, rather than torn hither and thither by competing ideologies. I trust that this misapprehension has now dissolved.
Our scientific experts can agree on virtually nothing regarding this virus. They are all to a greater or lesser extent captured by their own paradigms and beliefs, just as are the politicians.
Science is a noble pursuit, but it is practised by that most flawed and partial of creatures, the human being. There is no easy truth out there.”
In my opinion, that said it all. As I posted a couple of weeks back, if you put 10 scientists in a room for a couple of hours, you will end up with 40 different opinions. That is how they are and work.
BTW, if I were them, I would be extremely worried, and checking my pension position and legal rights, at this time. Every politico is saying that they are making decisions “based on the science”. Not too difficult to work out who is in the sh*t when the balloon goes up, is it?
Edited by lazland - April 12 2020 at 07:02
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Enhance your life. Get down to www.lazland.org
Now also broadcasting on www.progzilla.com Every Saturday, 4.00 p.m. UK time!
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twseel
Forum Senior Member
Joined: December 15 2012
Location: abroad
Status: Offline
Points: 22767
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Posted: April 10 2020 at 08:16 |
Let me just pop in to say that I'm glad to be on a forum where this much useful information is shared and discussed so politely, it's honestly refreshing amidst the chaos! I'm guessing the lockdown as it is done now in most places is the best we can do at this point, though hopefully time will reveal better ways out than 2 years of being locked inside while half the risk group dies out anyways... Ideally I would see an option where young and entirely healthy people like me can get the virus immediately and sit it out in controlled conditions so that we are immune and can take care of others and keep essential services going again, though I see how that would be very hard to implement from the top down. Still, I get that scientists can't formally say that immunity is guaranteed after you've had it, but it's safe to assume you're immune to that strain then, right? And if the virus is going to spread and kill anyways, no matter how much you slow it down, wouldn't controlled herd immunity amongst the young and healthy be the only way to actually stop the weak from getting the virus all together? Anyways, that's all the theorizing that's still keeping me busy, worrying only gets you so far. On the other hand, the time off has allowed me to eat healthier than before, work on my drumming skills, catch up on reading some books, clean my student room extensively and get back in touch with some old friends, so it really is what you make it. As for economics, the Dutch government is taking care that all businesses and their employees that have been harmed will be compensated to up to 90% so that they can continue existing, and all in all I don't see much structural change taking place at the end of this, certainly not from the top levels. I mean, look at the 2008 market crash, all the structural changes then were pretty much government-mandated, no? The government surely isn't going to suddenly enforce changes on these parties because of an external factor, right? The main worry would have to be on a personal level; social isolation is such a huge risk factor on so many fronts, as has been pointed out in this thread, and I really wonder if suicides and other stress-related deaths will start to weigh up against the lives saved at the intensive care beds...
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lazland
Prog Reviewer
Joined: October 28 2008
Location: Wales
Status: Offline
Points: 13741
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Posted: April 10 2020 at 05:35 |
Lewian wrote:
Dr. Wu: Once more...
Lewian wrote:
Some numbers for flu (for the US) are here:
They estimate the max number of deaths in the US to be 61,000 annually, and the number of infections to be minimum 9 million. If you divide one by the other, you get a mortality of considerably less than 0.1%. Divide min deaths by max infections and you get about 0.0027%, yes that's two zeroes behind the decimal point. Note that the range of infections is given as 9-45 millions. That's how precisely we know.
Estimates for Covid-19 are not precise either. I have seen numbers between 0.4% and more than 2%. Anybody can make their own comparisons... |
By the way, the current numbers of deaths divided by positively diagnosed cases stands at 6%, divided by recovered/discharged persons at a whopping 21%, data from These are most likely overestimates because of many undiagnosed cases, however testing is picking up in many countries, and if it goes on like this I'd not be surprised if we see a final mortality rate of substantially bigger than 2%.
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But it is all pure and utter supposition. All figures being bandied about, whether they show low or high mortality rates.
I am sure that the good Equality Professor will confirm an absolute truth. Mathematical modelling is only as good as the data which feeds into it, and the data being fed in is rubbish.
I noted that yesterday, our esteemed Chief Scientific Officer stated his opinion that less than 10% of citizens in the UK had caught it. How does he know? Simples, he doesn’t, it is pure supposition, and I would make the not unreasonable point that if that is the case, it is not that highly infectious after all, is it? (actually, I think that it is very infectious, and agree with a growing number of scientists who are daring to speak out that millions have had the thing, but what do I know?)
There is one thing that absolutely has to come out of all of this, and that is a health infrastructure that has the capacity to mass test and isolate citizens in the sure and certain event of a future pandemic, because this situation is ridiculous.
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Enhance your life. Get down to www.lazland.org
Now also broadcasting on www.progzilla.com Every Saturday, 4.00 p.m. UK time!
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Lewian
Prog Reviewer
Joined: August 09 2015
Location: Italy
Status: Offline
Points: 14934
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Posted: April 10 2020 at 04:16 |
Dr. Wu: Once more...
Lewian wrote:
Some numbers for flu (for the US) are here:
They estimate the max number of deaths in the US to be 61,000 annually, and the number of infections to be minimum 9 million. If you divide one by the other, you get a mortality of considerably less than 0.1%. Divide min deaths by max infections and you get about 0.0027%, yes that's two zeroes behind the decimal point. Note that the range of infections is given as 9-45 millions. That's how precisely we know.
Estimates for Covid-19 are not precise either. I have seen numbers between 0.4% and more than 2%. Anybody can make their own comparisons... |
By the way, the current numbers of deaths divided by positively diagnosed cases stands at 6%, divided by recovered/discharged persons at a whopping 21%, data from These are most likely overestimates because of many undiagnosed cases, however testing is picking up in many countries, and if it goes on like this I'd not be surprised if we see a final mortality rate of substantially bigger than 2%.
Edited by Lewian - April 10 2020 at 04:22
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Tom Ozric
Prog Reviewer
Joined: September 03 2005
Location: Olympus Mons
Status: Offline
Points: 15926
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Posted: April 09 2020 at 23:22 |
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Here in Australia, cases are low, so all hail Scott Morrison for taking the required measures to curb the virus spreading - having said, we haven’t gone into our notorious flu season quite yet, so interesting to see how things progress. If there’s no Covid in the air, we may be lucky.
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rogerthat
Prog Reviewer
Joined: September 03 2006
Location: .
Status: Offline
Points: 9869
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Posted: April 09 2020 at 21:00 |
dr wu23 wrote:
Why would one virus be more 'contagious' than another.? Aren't all upper respiratory viruses spread in a similar fashion..? I can understand it might be a more virulent strain .Just curious but during 'regular' flu season are hospitals equally overwhelmed since allegedly more die from the reg flu? I would think they would always be full during flu season?
btw, some stats...and I'm not making any case for anything...just thought they were interesting.
US stats... -CDC 29,000-59,000 deaths from flu related illnesses each season so far 16,500 deaths from covid 19. -Last year almost 40,000 deaths from car accidents. -647,000 from heart disease each year -606,520 from cancer
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The key word here being so far. Deaths have skyrocketed just since March. That's with considerable restrictions on normal activity leading to great depression levels of unemployment. And it isn't even over yet. It's going to climb and climb for some more time. Louisiana and Florida have all but assured it's not going to start declining any time soon. Now imagine what the number of deaths would be without these restrictions. The fatal flaw in the argument that covid only has the mortality of influenza is these figures that we see are AFTER most of the world has accepted a severe disruption and the consequences thereof to contain the virus. Without containment, yes, the number of deaths would indeed approach projections characterised as 'crazy' in this thread. It is a mistake to take a mortality rate that has been successfully curtailed by these measures and compare that to that of influenza and then turn around and say the restrictions are unnecessary and purely a product of media alarm.
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dr wu23
Forum Senior Member
Joined: August 22 2010
Location: Indiana
Status: Offline
Points: 20642
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Posted: April 09 2020 at 15:55 |
Atavachron wrote:
^ I would too but we lack resistance to this one (so far), plus many people home-care when they have influenza.
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I'm not minimizing this problem....being a health care provider I understand the risks , just wonder why we don't hear more about reg flu each season. I have never received info on past epidemics in my office e-mails like this time around. There seems to be a higher level of panic than I have ever seen before.
Edited by dr wu23 - April 09 2020 at 15:58
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One does nothing yet nothing is left undone.
Haquin
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Atavachron
Special Collaborator
Honorary Collaborator
Joined: September 30 2006
Location: Pearland
Status: Offline
Points: 65435
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Posted: April 09 2020 at 15:43 |
^ I would too but we lack resistance to this one (so far), plus many people home-care when they have influenza.
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"Too often we enjoy the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought." -- John F. Kennedy
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dr wu23
Forum Senior Member
Joined: August 22 2010
Location: Indiana
Status: Offline
Points: 20642
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Posted: April 09 2020 at 15:40 |
Why would one virus be more 'contagious' than another.? Aren't all upper respiratory viruses spread in a similar fashion..? I can understand it might be a more virulent strain . Just curious but during 'regular' flu season are hospitals equally overwhelmed since allegedly more die from the reg flu? I would think they would always be full during flu season?
btw, some stats...and I'm not making any case for anything...just thought they were interesting.
US stats... -CDC 29,000-59,000 deaths from flu related illnesses each season so far 16,500 deaths from covid 19. -Last year almost 40,000 deaths from car accidents. -647,000 from heart disease each year -606,520 from cancer
Edited by dr wu23 - April 09 2020 at 15:52
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One does nothing yet nothing is left undone.
Haquin
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Atavachron
Special Collaborator
Honorary Collaborator
Joined: September 30 2006
Location: Pearland
Status: Offline
Points: 65435
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Posted: April 09 2020 at 15:30 |
^Well yes, in a way it is irrelevant-- Covid19 is new, highly contagious, and attacks the lungs much more severely in many people, which explains why hospitals are overwhelmed.
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"Too often we enjoy the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought." -- John F. Kennedy
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Lewian
Prog Reviewer
Joined: August 09 2015
Location: Italy
Status: Offline
Points: 14934
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Posted: April 09 2020 at 15:20 |
Atavachron wrote:
Lewian wrote:
. lazland has written some nonsense comparing Covid-19 to flu, this is not a credible way to justify to go on as before. However, a more realistic line of argument is that we're screwed either way, and if this is so, we could well choose to be screwed with open pubs and restaurants. (I hope not, but...) |
If everyone had this attitude we really would be screwed. Lazland isn't the only one to have the impudence to perceive things differently. We just don't know where we are yet. It's estimated up to half a million people die each year from influenza. So far Covid has killed 95,000 and well on the way to a larger number. But the seasonal flu is still a bigger killer. You can't blame the messenger.
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Well, I have responded to this twice already, once to you, once to lazland. Rather than responding to that you reiterate the same claim that is numerically correct yet totally irrelevant (for the reasons already given).
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Atavachron
Special Collaborator
Honorary Collaborator
Joined: September 30 2006
Location: Pearland
Status: Offline
Points: 65435
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Posted: April 09 2020 at 14:06 |
Lewian wrote:
. lazland has written some nonsense comparing Covid-19 to flu, this is not a credible way to justify to go on as before. However, a more realistic line of argument is that we're screwed either way, and if this is so, we could well choose to be screwed with open pubs and restaurants. (I hope not, but...) |
If everyone had this attitude we really would be screwed. Lazland isn't the only one to have the impudence to perceive things differently. We just don't know where we are yet. It's estimated up to half a million people die each year from influenza. So far Covid has killed 95,000 and well on the way to a larger number. But the seasonal flu is still a bigger killer. You can't blame the messenger.
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"Too often we enjoy the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought." -- John F. Kennedy
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Covid-19 and the madness of crowds
