Covid-19 and the madness of crowds |
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npjnpj
Forum Senior Member Joined: December 05 2007 Location: Germany Status: Offline Points: 2720 |
Posted: April 24 2020 at 07:51 | ||
Would solve a good number of problems though.
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SteveG
Forum Senior Member Joined: April 11 2014 Location: Kyiv In Spirit Status: Offline Points: 20616 |
Posted: April 24 2020 at 06:33 | ||
US President Donald Trump has been lambasted by the medical community after suggesting research into whether coronavirus might be treated by injecting disinfectant into the body. He also appeared to propose irradiating patients' bodies with UV light, an idea dismissed by a doctor at the briefing. Another of his officials had moments earlier said sunlight and disinfectant were known to kill the infection. Disinfectants are hazardous substances and can be poisonous if ingested. Even external exposure can be dangerous to the skin, eyes and respiratory system.
What did President Trump say? During Thursday's White House coronavirus task force briefing, an official presented the results of US government research that indicated coronavirus appeared to weaken more quickly when exposed to sunlight and heat. The study also showed bleach could kill the virus in saliva or respiratory fluids within five minutes and isopropyl alcohol could kill it even more quickly. William Bryan, acting head of the US Department of Homeland Security's Science and Technology Directorate, outlined the findings at the news conference.
While noting the research should be treated with caution, Mr Trump suggested further research in that area. "So, supposing we hit the body with a tremendous - whether it's ultraviolet or just very powerful light," the president said, turning to Dr Deborah Birx, the White House coronavirus response co-ordinator, "and I think you said that hasn't been checked but you're going to test it. "And then I said, supposing you brought the light inside of the body, which you can do either through the skin or in some other way. And I think you said you're going to test that too. Sounds interesting," the president continued. "And then I see the disinfectant where it knocks it out in a minute. One minute. And is there a way we can do something like that, by injection inside or almost a cleaning? "So it'd be interesting to check that." Pointing to his head, Mr Trump went on: "I'm not a doctor. But I'm, like, a person that has a good you-know-what."
He turned again to Dr Birx and asked if she had ever heard of using "the heat and the light" to treat coronavirus. "Not as a treatment," Dr Birx said. "I mean, certainly, fever is a good thing. When you have a fever, it helps your body respond. But I've not seen heat or light." "I think it's a great thing to look at," Mr Trump said. Media playback is unsupported on your device Across the United States, some people insist the lockdowns should be lifted and states reopenedDisinfectants don't work inside the bodyAnalysis by Rachel Schraer, BBC health reporter Using a disinfectant can kill viruses on surfaces. It's a very good idea to keep clean the things you touch, using products with anti-microbial properties - for example, substances with a high alcohol content. There is also some evidence that, in general, viruses on surfaces die more quickly when directly exposed to sunlight. But we don't know how much or how long they have to be exposed for UV light to have an effect, so you're far safer just washing your hands and surfaces and trying not to touch your face. Crucially, this is only about infected objects and surfaces - not about what happens once the virus is inside your body. One of the main ways of catching the virus is by breathing in droplets expelled by an infected person, mainly by sneezing and coughing. The virus very quickly begins to multiply and spread, eventually reaching the lungs. Not only does consuming or injecting disinfectant risk poisoning and death, it's not even likely to be effective. Equally, by the time the virus has taken hold inside your body, no amount of UV light on your skin is going to make a difference. And since UV radiation damages the skin, using it to kill the virus could be a case of - to borrow a well-worn phrase - the cure being worse than Edited by SteveG - April 24 2020 at 06:59 |
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chopper
Special Collaborator Honorary Collaborator Joined: July 13 2005 Location: Essex, UK Status: Offline Points: 20030 |
Posted: April 24 2020 at 05:07 | ||
Hopefully there aren't thousands of Trump supporters trying this out as we speak...
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BaldFriede
Prog Reviewer Joined: June 02 2005 Location: Germany Status: Offline Points: 10266 |
Posted: April 24 2020 at 04:57 | ||
There are now about 890,000 confirmed cases and 50372 confirmed deaths in the USA alone, which makes the mortality rate more than double as high as I originally calculated. Anybody still laughing at my initial calculation?
Edited by BaldFriede - April 24 2020 at 05:06 |
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BaldJean and I; I am the one in blue. |
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essexboyinwales
Forum Senior Member Joined: April 27 2015 Location: Bridgend Status: Offline Points: 5186 |
Posted: April 24 2020 at 03:56 | ||
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52407177 What an absolute f**kwit this man is. 1 for even having these thoughts, and 2 for having the whole conversation (pretty much with himself) at a press conference in front of millions who seem to take his word for anything... May I suggest that he nominates himself to be the first to trial the injection of disinfectant? I mean, he's not a doctor, but he's got a good you-know-what... |
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Equality 7-2521
Forum Senior Member Joined: August 11 2005 Location: Philly Status: Offline Points: 15784 |
Posted: April 20 2020 at 08:26 | ||
I read the article. I can largely see the basis of what he's saying, but I think it is fundamentally misguided and really really off the mark. In particular it is frustrating to see the "nobody knows what is going on" conflation with "we do not know exactly what is happening but we have a range in which we can be exceedingly confident" which is used as a lazy way to tear down real knowledge.
And then there's something like this, which with no exaggeration, is f**king insane.
Edited by Equality 7-2521 - April 20 2020 at 08:27 |
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"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "
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lazland
Prog Reviewer Joined: October 28 2008 Location: Wales Status: Offline Points: 13741 |
Posted: April 19 2020 at 06:08 | ||
Okay, thank you. I might point out that until this morning when my wife sent me the link, I had never heard of him
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Equality 7-2521
Forum Senior Member Joined: August 11 2005 Location: Philly Status: Offline Points: 15784 |
Posted: April 19 2020 at 05:53 | ||
I'll do my best to finish it. Though given Eisenstein's publication history I might not be able to.
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"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "
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Equality 7-2521
Forum Senior Member Joined: August 11 2005 Location: Philly Status: Offline Points: 15784 |
Posted: April 19 2020 at 05:51 | ||
This isn't to nitpick the article which is mostly fine but - Cross cultural / geographic comparisons make little sense to me. Policies that work in Siberia aren't necessarily those that work for Miami beach. - The idea that flattening the curve to prevent ICU overload is the 'point' of lockdowns is odd. The point is to save lives. Preventing health system collapse of course is a huge part of that but you know we also want less people to die irrespective of whether that occurs or not. |
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"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "
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lazland
Prog Reviewer Joined: October 28 2008 Location: Wales Status: Offline Points: 13741 |
Posted: April 19 2020 at 05:48 | ||
Indeed it does require a floor of testing ability. You are spot on, and governments were warned about this quite some time ago. That is a failure of policy and infrastructure. I would like you to have a look at this article below. It was sent to me by my wife, and, although very long, makes some extremely interesting points about our attitudes as a society, and the potential fallout from all of this. |
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Equality 7-2521
Forum Senior Member Joined: August 11 2005 Location: Philly Status: Offline Points: 15784 |
Posted: April 19 2020 at 05:37 | ||
Where's the arguing in that picture? Test and trace is a way to end the lockdown. It was not a viable policy for the point in the outbreaks that Western countries found themselves when they took action as it requires both a floor of testing ability and ceiling of cases.
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"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "
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lazland
Prog Reviewer Joined: October 28 2008 Location: Wales Status: Offline Points: 13741 |
Posted: April 19 2020 at 02:00 | ||
And I have pasted the article below from The Observer online this morning. Another fascinating insight into how scientists, epidemiologists, and other experts are arguing like cat and dog over what is the best way forward, as I have said on this site ad nauseum.
A major British city should be used to trial mass testing as a way out of the coronavirus lockdown, according to a group of leading epidemiologists and public health experts. They warn that simply using periods of mass lockdowns and relaxations to control the virus could lead to the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people before a vaccine becomes available “with the most disadvantaged groups experiencing the greatest suffering”. Instead, the group states that one or more cities with a population of 200,000 to 300,000 – about a dozen ranging in size from Aberdeen to Bradford – should be used to trial a mass-testing programme. The group includes Julian Peto, a professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, David Hunter, professor of epidemiology at the University of Oxford, and Nisreen A Alwan, an associate professor in public health at Southampton University. AdvertisementHide “Quarantine would end when all residents of the household test negative at the same time. Everyone else in the city can resume normal life, if they choose to,” said the group in a letter to the Lancet journal. “A decision to proceed with national roll-out can then be made. If the epidemic is controlled, hundreds of thousands of lives could be saved, intensive care units will no longer be overloaded, and the effects of lockdown on mental ill-health and unemployment will end.” It comes amid continuing doubts about how the government came to its testing target of 100,000 a day by the end of the month. Medical experts and scientists have suggested that it is both too big for the current demand from key workers who think they are infected, and too low to be useful for a mass “test and trace” strategy to loosen the lockdown. Allan Wilson, president of the Institute of Biomedical Science (IBMS) which represents NHS lab staff and biomedical scientists, said there “was no evidence base” to the figure. He said: “No one, as far as I can see, has built it up from the bottom, depending on predicted demand. It’s not an easy thing to do, but even looking at various scenarios would help.” |
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lazland
Prog Reviewer Joined: October 28 2008 Location: Wales Status: Offline Points: 13741 |
Posted: April 19 2020 at 01:52 | ||
Interesting article from Sweden:
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Catcher10
Forum Senior Member VIP Member Joined: December 23 2009 Location: Emerald City Status: Offline Points: 17909 |
Posted: April 18 2020 at 20:22 | ||
These next few weeks will be TOUGH! As I think many states will be seeing more outside activity with people going to parks, beaches and not doing the social distance thingy.
State Governors better get a handle on what they want to allow or not allow and be clear, already seeing pics of Florida beaches full of people. I hear here in WA that parks are going to open up and some farmers markets?? One thing is for sure, people want to go back to work.
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timothy leary
Forum Senior Member Joined: December 29 2005 Location: Lilliwaup, Wa. Status: Offline Points: 5319 |
Posted: April 18 2020 at 13:35 | ||
Fortunate for us we have been gardening for 50 years on the same one third acre and do not need anything from big box stores or nurseries. We are still practicing stay at home social distancing.
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Equality 7-2521
Forum Senior Member Joined: August 11 2005 Location: Philly Status: Offline Points: 15784 |
Posted: April 17 2020 at 06:50 | ||
I do think the fact that supply stores like Home Depot are operating but in some places closing their garden centers is a bit draconian. Gardening is a good activity for people right now. I'd imagine having safe outlets probably helps with the ability of social distancing to persist in the long run.
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"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "
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Equality 7-2521
Forum Senior Member Joined: August 11 2005 Location: Philly Status: Offline Points: 15784 |
Posted: April 17 2020 at 06:48 | ||
It's not a pointless question. It's entirely germane to what you're saying. You claim that the economic and societal damage of the lockdown is going to outweigh that of the virus itself. That necessitates that you have some sort of bound on the damage done by COVID if it was unchecked. Otherwise your statement is meaningless.
On the other hand, the question you asked me is just a pointless prediction. I don't need to have an estimate of the number of flu deaths sans vaccine because I'm making no claim contingent upon having such an estimate. Having said that, a really dumb estimate from looking at historical CFR suggests something like 200k with a substantial right skew on the error.
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"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "
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lazland
Prog Reviewer Joined: October 28 2008 Location: Wales Status: Offline Points: 13741 |
Posted: April 17 2020 at 00:44 | ||
By God, this is dull and pointless. You insist on bandying these figures about, which really is missing completely the points and opinions I have been making, which are political, social, and economic, not a “which is the worst” game. But, if you really insist, the obvious answer to your question, which is meaningless, is I have not got a f**king clue. If I did, I would be a lottery winner many times over owing to an ability to know an unknown. Pointless question for you. How many people do you think would have died from flu without the vaccine? See? Fun this, isn’t it?
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Equality 7-2521
Forum Senior Member Joined: August 11 2005 Location: Philly Status: Offline Points: 15784 |
Posted: April 16 2020 at 19:12 | ||
According to CDC stats that would not be accurate.
How many do you think would have died up to this point without the lockdowns and mobilization of testing / PPE?
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"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "
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lazland
Prog Reviewer Joined: October 28 2008 Location: Wales Status: Offline Points: 13741 |
Posted: April 16 2020 at 12:15 | ||
The stats I see show that, on average, 61,000 people die from flu annually in the US. I think you now have 30,000 Covid deaths? Having said that, pointlessly bandying figures about, it does seem likely to me that Covid deaths will continue to rise with you, and may well exceed annual flu deaths. It does not, though, change at all my stance on tackling the virus and the multiple deaths and deprivation the lockdown is and will cause.
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