Covid-19 and the madness of crowds

You have argued for herd immunity which is pretty much letting go on a wing and a prayer.  There is no proof yet that it is even possible to develop herd immunity for this virus.  If anything, there have been a few cases already where a person thought to have recovered has again contracted the disease.  You have also joined in equating covid to the flu; let me tell you that the flu does not cause much if any harm in countries like India but covid has already killed 800 people (which is a conservative and under-reported toll with the actual number likely to be substantially higher) in spite of a draconian lockdown. 

It is not only America or the West European nations that have imposed lockdowns.  Many third world countries, Gulf states, East Asian nations have accepted it along with the hefty economic toll.  Why?  The answer lies in what I wrote above.  We just don't know enough about this virus as of now.  We don't know why it is able to survive and proliferate in both the Canadian winter and the Indian summer.  We don't know for sure that a person who contracts covid won't get it again soon and in fact have counter exhibits already.  Hydroxychloroquine has not been established to be a cure yet.  No vaccine.  Too many uncertainties.  It is very evidently prudent to accept the confinement of a lockdown until such time as we either have the post-corona infrastructure set up to cope with the new reality (the Korean/German approach) or have a cure.  Again, if hearts bleed for the poor, it would be well advised to set up this infrastructure urgently and ready for a new normal rather than demanding a return to the old normal which is not coming back for some time.  Things like UBI or Denmark's payouts intended to 'freeze' the economy (as opposed to allowing it to contract alarmingly) can also be embraced if the capitalist class would let go of its embrace of an economic orthodoxy that favours its cause and lines its pockets.  

Okay, one last final try to attempt to persuade you that these numbers are a meaningless discussion point.

I have quoted below from the site you sent the link to, not I. Is the point finally made, at long last? Lots of people have died. f**k me, I know that. I am not stupid. What none of us know is the accurate number of both deaths and infections. Can we at least agree on this and move on?

The argument isn't with lockdown/shelter in place approach being a very blunt and crude way of dealing with the virus and one already inflicting almost endless economic damage.  I would personally push back against anybody characterising an economic argument as 'money minded' - yeah, why don't you be my guest and tell the poor not to worry about the economy.  

The argument is with the notion that letting go on a wing and a prayer would somehow be a better alternative.  Neither you nor others who are persuaded of this notion have provided anything other than rhetoric in support of this argument, so the reactions you receive shouldn't surprise you. 

US, UK, India, all three missed the bus by taking the onset of the epidemic too lightly.  Both US and India made the mistake of assuming blocking travellers from China would suffice.  By the time they realised travellers from elsewhere too were carrying the virus and transmitting it to others in the country, it was too late.  

There has been much China-bashing on the justified grounds that they attempted a cover up of the situation and cost precious time for the rest of the world.  While true, by Jan-end, it was clear that China was dealing with a serious epidemic which would wreak havoc if it spread to other countries.  Feb and March were precious months for all three countries I mentioned above (as well as other laggards like Spain, Italy and France) to prepare adequately to deal with the virus.  Models such as Korea's and Taiwan's were available as to how best to deal with the virus.  They were ignored until too late by these countries.  Germany does not seem to have (Friede/Jean can correct me if I am wrong about this) and has coped better with the virus as a result.  But to get back to the point, there is a window of time when a solution based around social distancing and testing without a lockdown can work.  If you do not act during that time, you are forced to impose a lockdown, which is what has happened in the laggard nations.  

I do have some criticism specific to India about what is being done during the lockdown.  I think this is precious time that should be used to set up factories, warehouses etc to be social distancing-compliant.  The risk of some of these workers (working on making suitable changes in these workplaces) contracting the virus is worth taking in return for being ready for the post lockdown world.  I cannot say for sure being locked out, but I don't get the impression that that is being done. Every effort should be made to create a new normal with reduced physical contact or proximity.  We are not going to be able to return to the old ways of doing things unless we accept on and off lockdowns all the way until we develop vaccines. 

A quick note about Sweden's numbers.  Of their closed cases, 70% or so are deaths and 30% are recoveries.  This is completely anomalous to the worldwide experience.  Germany has a near 100% recovery rate with 1 or 2% being the death rate. France has higher deaths but it's still 30-70 deaths-recoveries (not the other way round).  India's graph is in between Germany and France in terms of recoveries-deaths.  The fact that Sweden has way more deaths than recoveries in closed cases suggests strongly that they are under-testing and under-reporting cases proportionate to their population.  I would therefore recommend that Spectator & Co hold off uncorking the bubbly for some more time because what is off about Sweden's numbers may become clear in the weeks to come. 

Since every thread here now takes a political position......Why don't you ask Hillary how stats worked out for her.

Very detailed statistics for the Covid-19 pandemic:

I am not pulling my numbers out of a hat. These statistics come with all the necessary caveats.

Agree, this is not a funny situation nothing to laugh about. Not only all the deaths but millions of people affected in ways like out of work no income.

We all know that the pink elephant in the room is China, they are not reporting cases accurately so yes the mortality rate is highly suspect given the population in China.