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Equality 7-2521 
Forum Senior Member
Joined: August 11 2005
Location: Philly
Status: Offline
Points: 15784
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 Posted: April 05 2009 at 11:21 |
 The Doctor wrote:
Equality 7-2521 wrote:
Well since the immutable laws of probability state the chance of having a girl is 1/2 and you have one boy already, your second child will have to be a girl to keep probability true.
An alternative proof goes like this 2 children * 1/2 = 1 girl.
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You forgot about standard deviation. The smaller the pool, the less likely the results will approximate the law of averages. Therefore, if Epi were to have 1,000,000 children, there would be a greater likelihood that he would have 50% boys and 50% girls. You'd better get busy Epi.  However, seeing as how the pool will only consist of 2 samples, there is at this point almost as much likelihood that he will have a boy as a girl (i.e. the standard deviation is extremely high).  |
I was mocking people who use probability to claim things when they no nothing about probability and poking fun at the poll itself. Thus me citing the gambler's fallacy and the expected value = actual value fallacy. I'm quite aware of what probability does and does not do.
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"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "
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The Doctor
Special Collaborator
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Joined: June 23 2005
Location: The Tardis
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Points: 8543
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Posted: April 05 2009 at 08:00 |
Equality 7-2521 wrote:
Well since the immutable laws of probability state the chance of having a girl is 1/2 and you have one boy already, your second child will have to be a girl to keep probability true.
An alternative proof goes like this 2 children * 1/2 = 1 girl.
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You forgot about standard deviation. The smaller the pool, the less likely the results will approximate the law of averages. Therefore, if Epi were to have 1,000,000 children, there would be a greater likelihood that he would have 50% boys and 50% girls. You'd better get busy Epi. However, seeing as how the pool will only consist of 2 samples, there is at this point almost as much likelihood that he will have a boy as a girl (i.e. the standard deviation is extremely high).
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I can understand your anger at me, but what did the horse I rode in on ever do to you?
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someone_else
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Joined: May 02 2008
Location: Going Bananas
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Points: 24294
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Posted: April 05 2009 at 06:25 |
Let's analyze the parameters you give us for a guess:
1, 3. I have three brothers and no sisters. I have one daughter myself. Because of my own family configuration, I think the majority of a gender switches to and fro every generation. This, and the fact that you already have a son, may indicate that the child will be a girl.
2. The gender of a child is determined by the fathers input. For this reason, I cannot value this. I'm not a superstitious person.
4. The most important of these parameters. I just viewed your "Beer!"-poll once again, and it seems to me that you don't drink only lager. My dad liked beer, but only lager. I have hardly seen him drinking any other kind of beer, maybe once or twice. I think that the probability of having only boys can be calculated this way:
The percentage of the lager you drink of all beers to the power of three, divided by a million.
These things make me vote for a girl.
Congratulations anyway...
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Atavachron
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Joined: September 30 2006
Location: Pearland
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Points: 65248
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Posted: April 05 2009 at 04:04 |
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girl
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Slartibartfast
Collaborator
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Joined: April 29 2006
Location: Atlantais
Status: Offline
Points: 29630
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Posted: April 05 2009 at 03:57 |
By the way, if it's a boy and y'all intend to keep trying until you have a girl, I would advise you take a close look at the sitcom Malcolm In The Middle. 
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Released date are often when it it impacted you but recorded dates are when it really happened... 
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stonebeard
Forum Senior Member
Joined: May 27 2005
Location: NE Indiana
Status: Offline
Points: 28057
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Posted: April 04 2009 at 22:33 |
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A Girl Named Sandoz
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Gustavo Froes
Forum Senior Member
Joined: October 06 2008
Location: Rio,Brazil
Status: Offline
Points: 385
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Posted: April 04 2009 at 19:15 |
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Epignosis
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Joined: December 30 2007
Location: Raeford, NC
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Posted: April 04 2009 at 16:19 |
TheCaptain wrote:
Epignosis wrote:
rushfan4 wrote:
Maybe he will have a Gentle Giant and then the previous post would be appropriate.  |
I'm 5'4'' and the wife is 5'1''- ain't happening.
Plus, she's downright mean sometimes, so unless he/she gets my personality, our kid won't be much in the way of gentle either.
Instead of a Gentle Giant, we'll probably have a Bitchy Hobbit. 
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On the bright side, you're setting the bar very low so you won't be disappointed.
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Nah, we're just sending the gene pool to hell. 
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TheCaptain
Forum Senior Member
Joined: January 04 2009
Location: Ohio, USA
Status: Offline
Points: 1335
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Posted: April 04 2009 at 16:14 |
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Curse your sudden but inevitable betrayal.
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rushfan4
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Location: Michigan, U.S.
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Posted: April 04 2009 at 15:58 |
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Epignosis
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Joined: December 30 2007
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Posted: April 04 2009 at 15:55 |
rushfan4 wrote:
Maybe he will have a Gentle Giant and then the previous post would be appropriate. |
I'm 5'4'' and the wife is 5'1''- ain't happening.
Plus, she's downright mean sometimes, so unless he/she gets my personality, our kid won't be much in the way of gentle either.
Instead of a Gentle Giant, we'll probably have a Bitchy Hobbit.
Edited by Epignosis - April 04 2009 at 15:55
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rushfan4
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Joined: May 22 2007
Location: Michigan, U.S.
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Posted: April 04 2009 at 15:46 |
Maybe he will have a Gentle Giant and then the previous post would be appropriate.
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Queen By-Tor
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Joined: September 13 2006
Location: Xanadu
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Points: 16111
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Posted: April 04 2009 at 15:40 |
Pat, your Last.fm reminds me that it's been to long since I listened to Acquiring the Taste [edit] - oh balls, this isn't the Shred Whatever, I vote girl then, out of spite. 
Edited by King By-Tor - April 04 2009 at 15:41
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Padraic
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Joined: February 16 2006
Location: Pennsylvania
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Points: 31169
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Posted: April 04 2009 at 15:28 |
You'll have a boy, because you secretly want to be like me. 
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Ricochet
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Joined: February 27 2005
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Posted: April 04 2009 at 13:29 |
Epignosis wrote:
Ricochet wrote:
Epignosis wrote:
I believe that if we have a son, we will name him Ephraim (meaning doubly blessed- appropriate since he will be our second child); if we have a girl, we are considering Abigail (meaning "father's hole in his pocket joy")
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I had a high-school colleague called Abigail, who's now my best friend's girlfriend.
(Hey, if we add this info to the general statistics, chances of you having a girl could increase!).
I don't like Ephraim as a name very much.  (Payback for Victoria. )
Oh, btw, I never thought of this until now. Do you know for sure that it's gonna be just one? What if you're in for Epignosis Jr. #2 & #3?
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*Falls out of chair and clutches chest*
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rushfan4
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Joined: May 22 2007
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Posted: April 04 2009 at 13:24 |
My cousin named her daughter Abigayle; the different spelling in tribute to her aunt Gayle. I'm pretty certain that they do call her Abby.
A friend of mind named his kids Zach and Zoey. According to him, he hates the adding of "y"s to people's names. Such as Scottie. He figured that Zach was safe and Zoey already had the y. Needless to say from time to time people call Zach "Zachy" anyways. Probably like Jackie I suppose. I think that his name is Zach and not Zachary, but I could be wrong there. He always refers to his son as Zach.
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Epignosis
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Joined: December 30 2007
Location: Raeford, NC
Status: Offline
Points: 32524
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Posted: April 04 2009 at 13:19 |
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Looks like it!
Although I will never call my daughter "Abby" if Abigail is her name. I generally dislike truncations.
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TheCaptain
Forum Senior Member
Joined: January 04 2009
Location: Ohio, USA
Status: Offline
Points: 1335
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Posted: April 04 2009 at 13:17 |
Epignosis wrote:
I believe that if we have a son, we will name him Ephraim (meaning doubly blessed- appropriate since he will be our second child); if we have a girl, we are considering Abigail (meaning "father's hole in his pocket joy")
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I am quite partial to Abigail. I have a good friend by that name although she rather hates being called "Abigail" and much prefers "Abby." So if you're main criterion for choosing a name for your child is the thoughts of people on a prog forum, it's looking like Abigail is going to be her name.
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Curse your sudden but inevitable betrayal.
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Epignosis
Special Collaborator
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Joined: December 30 2007
Location: Raeford, NC
Status: Offline
Points: 32524
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Posted: April 04 2009 at 13:10 |
Ricochet wrote:
Epignosis wrote:
I believe that if we have a son, we will name him Ephraim (meaning doubly blessed- appropriate since he will be our second child); if we have a girl, we are considering Abigail (meaning "father's hole in his pocket joy")
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I had a high-school colleague called Abigail, who's now my best friend's girlfriend.
(Hey, if we add this info to the general statistics, chances of you having a girl could increase!).
I don't like Ephraim as a name very much. (Payback for Victoria. )
Oh, btw, I never thought of this until now. Do you know for sure that it's gonna be just one? What if you're in for Epignosis Jr. #2 & #3?
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*Falls out of chair and clutches chest*
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Ricochet
Special Collaborator
Honorary Collaborator
Joined: February 27 2005
Location: Nauru
Status: Offline
Points: 46301
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Posted: April 04 2009 at 13:08 |
Epignosis wrote:
I believe that if we have a son, we will name him Ephraim (meaning doubly blessed- appropriate since he will be our second child); if we have a girl, we are considering Abigail (meaning "father's hole in his pocket joy")
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I had a high-school colleague called Abigail, who's now my best friend's girlfriend. (Hey, if we add this info to the general statistics, chances of you having a girl could increase!). I don't like Ephraim as a name very much. (Payback for Victoria. ) Oh, btw, I never thought of this until now. Do you know for sure that it's gonna be just one? What if you're in for Epignosis Jr. #2 & #3?
Edited by Ricochet - April 04 2009 at 13:09
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