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SteveG View Drop Down
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Points: 20616 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 02 2024 at 13:57
Originally posted by MikeEnRegalia MikeEnRegalia wrote:

Originally posted by SteveG SteveG wrote:

Originally posted by MikeEnRegalia MikeEnRegalia wrote:

Originally posted by SteveG SteveG wrote:

Originally posted by MikeEnRegalia MikeEnRegalia wrote:

^ So conspiracy theorists are always wrong?
In that particular scenario, 1 plausible argument for and 99 against, what do you think? That is the pertinent question.


In your scenario I would also assume the conspiracy theory is wrong. But the actual "pertinent question" is what the pros and cons look like for each individual conspiracy theory. 
Unfortunately with conspiracy theorists, my scenario is usually par for the course.

Sure. We both agree that conspiracy theories are usually wrong. So for every new theory we come across it is more likely that it is wrong than that it is correct. However, the theories can vary a lot in terms of how ordinary the claims are that you would have to accept as true in order for the theory to be correct, and this, among other factors, should be weighed against your bias to just dismiss every conspiracy theory as false.

Example:

A) The world is ruled by lizard people.
B) The world is ruled by a small number of extremely wealthy people.

I would submit that although both are basically "unprovable", there is a striking difference in the likelihood of them being correct as well as the type of evidence that would be required to accept them as (likely) correct.
 


I agree that both are unprovable but many compelling arguments with a rational basis can be made for example B. And that what is key. Compelling rational arguments which most conspiracy theories lack. Not everything can be proven but Cherry picking one or two arguments in the face of numerous compelling and rational counter arguments is the problem.

Edited by SteveG - April 02 2024 at 14:14
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Points: 21206 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 02 2024 at 12:56
Originally posted by SteveG SteveG wrote:

Originally posted by MikeEnRegalia MikeEnRegalia wrote:

Originally posted by SteveG SteveG wrote:

Originally posted by MikeEnRegalia MikeEnRegalia wrote:

^ So conspiracy theorists are always wrong?
In that particular scenario, 1 plausible argument for and 99 against, what do you think? That is the pertinent question.

In your scenario I would also assume the conspiracy theory is wrong. But the actual "pertinent question" is what the pros and cons look like for each individual conspiracy theory. 
Unfortunately with conspiracy theorists, my scenario is usually par for the course.

Sure. We both agree that conspiracy theories are usually wrong. So for every new theory we come across it is more likely that it is wrong than that it is correct. However, the theories can vary a lot in terms of how ordinary the claims are that you would have to accept as true in order for the theory to be correct, and this, among other factors, should be weighed against your bias to just dismiss every conspiracy theory as false.

Example:

A) The world is ruled by lizard people.
B) The world is ruled by a small number of extremely wealthy people.

I would submit that although both are basically "unprovable", there is a striking difference in the likelihood of them being correct as well as the type of evidence that would be required to accept them as (likely) correct.
 



Edited by MikeEnRegalia - April 02 2024 at 12:56
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SteveG View Drop Down
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Points: 20616 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 02 2024 at 12:36
Originally posted by omphaloskepsis omphaloskepsis wrote:

Originally posted by SteveG SteveG wrote:

Originally posted by MikeEnRegalia MikeEnRegalia wrote:

Originally posted by SteveG SteveG wrote:

Originally posted by MikeEnRegalia MikeEnRegalia wrote:

^ So conspiracy theorists are always wrong?
In that particular scenario, 1 plausible argument for and 99 against, what do you think? That is the pertinent question.

In your scenario I would also assume the conspiracy theory is wrong. But the actual "pertinent question" is what the pros and cons look like for each individual conspiracy theory. 
Unfortunately with conspiracy theorists, my scenario is usually par for the course. When this is the case with newly acquired information, in psychological terms, it is called confirmation bias which roughly means that we assimilate and pay attention only to the facts that strengthen an opinion or idea that we already hold to be fact while ignoring the counter arguments that disprove the opinion or idea. Which in most cases are greater in number and are often more compelling.


Just because you say your scenario is par for the course...doesn't make it so.  Sure, it's a given that confirmation bias explains why some people adhere to a particular conspiracy theory.  Would that include your confirmation bias?Wink

Please give examples to illustrate your argument, Steve.  So far, your arguments are generic and abstract. Smile 
I'm responding to a conspiracy theorist, so nothing I say will alter your confirmation bias. See how it works? You're stuck with your opinions as only those who are rational can be persuaded. 

Edited by SteveG - April 02 2024 at 12:37
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omphaloskepsis View Drop Down
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Points: 6418 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 02 2024 at 11:21
Originally posted by SteveG SteveG wrote:

Originally posted by MikeEnRegalia MikeEnRegalia wrote:

Originally posted by SteveG SteveG wrote:

Originally posted by MikeEnRegalia MikeEnRegalia wrote:

^ So conspiracy theorists are always wrong?
In that particular scenario, 1 plausible argument for and 99 against, what do you think? That is the pertinent question.

In your scenario I would also assume the conspiracy theory is wrong. But the actual "pertinent question" is what the pros and cons look like for each individual conspiracy theory. 
Unfortunately with conspiracy theorists, my scenario is usually par for the course. When this is the case with newly acquired information, in psychological terms, it is called confirmation bias which roughly means that we assimilate and pay attention only to the facts that strengthen an opinion or idea that we already hold to be fact while ignoring the counter arguments that disprove the opinion or idea. Which in most cases are greater in number and are often more compelling.


Just because you say your scenario is par for the course...doesn't make it so.  Sure, it's a given that confirmation bias explains why some people adhere to a particular conspiracy theory.  Would that include your confirmation bias?Wink

Please give examples to illustrate your argument, Steve.  So far, your arguments are generic and abstract. Smile 


Edited by omphaloskepsis - April 02 2024 at 11:54
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SteveG View Drop Down
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Points: 20616 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 02 2024 at 10:08
Originally posted by MikeEnRegalia MikeEnRegalia wrote:

Originally posted by SteveG SteveG wrote:

Originally posted by MikeEnRegalia MikeEnRegalia wrote:

^ So conspiracy theorists are always wrong?
In that particular scenario, 1 plausible argument for and 99 against, what do you think? That is the pertinent question.

In your scenario I would also assume the conspiracy theory is wrong. But the actual "pertinent question" is what the pros and cons look like for each individual conspiracy theory. 
Unfortunately with conspiracy theorists, my scenario is usually par for the course. When this is the case with newly acquired information, in psychological terms, it is called confirmation bias which roughly means that we assimilate and pay attention only to the facts that strengthen an opinion or idea that we already hold to be fact while ignoring the counter arguments that disprove the opinion or idea. Which in most cases are greater in number and are often more compelling.

Edited by SteveG - April 02 2024 at 10:17
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Points: 21206 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 02 2024 at 08:08
Originally posted by omphaloskepsis omphaloskepsis wrote:

Exactly. Some conspiracy theories become conspiracy facts. Some conspiracy theories are wrong.

Yes - if a particular conspiracy theory makes specific predictions that can be verified now or in the future, they can (then) be categorised as true or false. But often they are worded in a very generic way that makes them impossible to verify. There's also conspiracy theories about past events ... those are impossible to verify (or falsify) in a scientific sense. For example, the theory that the moon landings were fake is most likely false, but there is no experiment that we can perform now or in the future which will help us decide, there is only historic data.
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Points: 21206 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 02 2024 at 08:02
Originally posted by SteveG SteveG wrote:

Originally posted by MikeEnRegalia MikeEnRegalia wrote:

^ So conspiracy theorists are always wrong?
In that particular scenario, 1 plausible argument for and 99 against, what do you think? That is the pertinent question.

In your scenario I would also assume the conspiracy theory is wrong. But the actual "pertinent question" is what the pros and cons look like for each individual conspiracy theory. 
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Points: 2677 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 02 2024 at 07:30
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Points: 17748 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 02 2024 at 06:47
Originally posted by Atavachron Atavachron wrote:

^ No, conspiracy theorists are attracted to the plausibility of a conspiracy.  
...

Hi,

... regardless of the fact that it could be wrong ... but for those folks it's right and the rest is wrong!

It gets kinda ridiculous and American politics is turning into this kind of game, and it won't stop ...  instead of worrying about the guy being right or wrong, he could be voted down .,... instead you get folks complaining about ... anything ... and on top of it, not voting! Recent poll here in the State of Wa, less than 40% of folks went to the polls ... thus the thought and idea of how the state and its folks really look like, is impossible to determine ... and the cynicism continues with more complaints!Confused   ... and folks intentionally finding arguments that ... are worse than them crying for the chocolate kiss they didn't get!


Edited by moshkito - April 02 2024 at 06:49
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Points: 20616 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 02 2024 at 05:58
Originally posted by MikeEnRegalia MikeEnRegalia wrote:

^ So conspiracy theorists are always wrong?
In that particular scenario, 1 plausible argument for and 99 against, what do you think? That is the pertinent question.

Edited by SteveG - April 02 2024 at 06:01
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omphaloskepsis View Drop Down
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Points: 6418 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 02 2024 at 04:59
Originally posted by MikeEnRegalia MikeEnRegalia wrote:

Originally posted by Atavachron Atavachron wrote:

^ No, conspiracy theorists are attracted to the plausibility of a conspiracy.   Nothing wrong with that any more than being attracted to the non-conspiracy narrative.   What's important is knowing what things are conspiracy and what aren't.   No easy task.


So conspiracy theorists are sometimes right, and sometimes wrong? That was kind of my point, since it was suggested that they're never right.

^

 Exactly. Some conspiracy theories become conspiracy facts. Some conspiracy theories are wrong.

 The term "conspiracy theory" causes some folks' eyes to glaze over as they automatically disregard the theory.  That's the power of the term itself.  
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Points: 4823 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 02 2024 at 04:10
Originally posted by MikeEnRegalia MikeEnRegalia wrote:

So conspiracy theorists are sometimes right, and sometimes wrong? That was kind of my point, since it was suggested that they're never right.
 
But anyone can create a conspiracy theory, and indeed a few years ago, Peter McIndoe created a satirical conspiracy theory "on a whim" called "Birds Aren't Real", which posits that birds are actually drones operated by the United States government to spy on American citizens.
 
Thus, although a conspiracy theory is not necessarily false, the vast majority probably are and usually too ridiculous to seriously entertain.
 
No, I know how to behave in the restaurant now, I don't tear at the meat with my hands. If I've become a man of the world somehow, that's not necessarily to say I'm a worldly man.
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Points: 21206 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 02 2024 at 02:41
Originally posted by Atavachron Atavachron wrote:

^ No, conspiracy theorists are attracted to the plausibility of a conspiracy.   Nothing wrong with that any more than being attracted to the non-conspiracy narrative.   What's important is knowing what things are conspiracy and what aren't.   No easy task.


So conspiracy theorists are sometimes right, and sometimes wrong? That was kind of my point, since it was suggested that they're never right.
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Points: 1587 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 01 2024 at 19:48
Originally posted by MikeEnRegalia MikeEnRegalia wrote:

^ What’s the difference? What would be typical examples?

It could be posited that people in general believed that their government was working in their interests in a somewhat transparent fashion, however since the revelations of MKUltra, the Iran/ Contra affair and other covert government operations, trust has been diminished to the extent that all bets are off.

Now people create their own narratives, supported and enabled by others through social media, creating an echo chamber that allows no opposing point of view to penetrate. This has a built-in defence mechanism whereby anyone who expresses an opposing view is perceived as part of the cover up.

The real fight is not about good vs. evil, rather it is a fight between information and disinformation, and just as good and evil can blur into each other, so to can information and disinformation until it becomes very difficult to ascertain the difference.

This for me is the smokescreen that has been created which allows all kinds of things to proliferate on the boundaries of truth.
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Points: 1587 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 01 2024 at 19:29
"Conspiracy theories are ultimately not about conspiracies; they are about our fear of chaos. Their focus often overlaps with actual conspiracies; but their function is not about understanding the mechanisms of actual conspiracies, but instead working as explanatory narratives for the unpredictable nature of modern life.

...

If we can convince ourselves that the problem is an external organization conspiring to frustrate democracy, we can convince ourselves that the system itself isn't broken."

UNDER THE EYE OF POWER: How fear of secret societies shapes American democracy.
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Points: 2984 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 01 2024 at 18:16
Originally posted by The Dark Elf The Dark Elf wrote:

Originally posted by omphaloskepsis omphaloskepsis wrote:

The accusation that the Apollo moon landings were faked continues to be a conspiracy theory that has not been proven.

Many imbeciles still think the world is flat, and yet they still have not fallen off the side. Which, of course, would be my preferred method for their demise. As far as the moon-landing conspiracy, it is appropriate that the term "lunacy" refers to a state of insanity. 


I can't believe it's THAT many; it's probably just amplified. Many who say they do might not believe it in actuality. I also think some say it just to get attention. The problem are their followers. Unfortunately, more people should just re-state the atrocities their own governments admit to.
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Points: 65289 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 01 2024 at 16:23
^ No, conspiracy theorists are attracted to the plausibility of a conspiracy.   Nothing wrong with that any more than being attracted to the non-conspiracy narrative.   What's important is knowing what things are conspiracy and what aren't.   No easy task.
"Too often we enjoy the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought."   -- John F. Kennedy
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Points: 21206 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 01 2024 at 15:12
^ So conspiracy theorists are always wrong?
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Points: 20616 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 01 2024 at 12:18
The incredible thing about conspiracy theorists is that they will hold fast to one plausible argument for their theory while ignoring 99 plausible counter arguments, which are generally referred to as a the truth.
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Points: 13090 		Direct Link To This Post Posted: March 31 2024 at 08:33
Originally posted by omphaloskepsis omphaloskepsis wrote:

The accusation that the Apollo moon landings were faked continues to be a conspiracy theory that has not been proven.

Many imbeciles still think the world is flat, and yet they still have not fallen off the side. Which, of course, would be my preferred method for their demise. As far as the moon-landing conspiracy, it is appropriate that the term "lunacy" refers to a state of insanity. 
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