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Topic ClosedCovid-19 and the madness of crowds

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Shadowyzard View Drop Down
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 16 2021 at 08:09
Got my second dose of the BioNTech vaccine a couple of hours ago. Interestingly, not even a tingle this time. 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 12 2021 at 08:41
Originally posted by nick_h_nz nick_h_nz wrote:

Originally posted by progaardvark progaardvark wrote:

It seems every time this virus produces a new variant, it's worse than the previous one. 

I guess it depends what you mean by worse. Susceptibility and mortality present two quite different statistics to look at. I remember learning in science at high school about the basic nature of viruses. Any novel virus tends to be fairly deadly, but in order for a virus to thrive it mutates to become more contagious, but less deadly. It is extraordinarily rare for a virus mutation to be more deadly. Thus, it comes as no great surprise that the virus has already mutated more than once, and that each successive mutation has appeared to be far more contagious than the previous. But the mortality rate kd the mutations is not as great. It might not appear that way, because deaths are still incredibly high in places where the virus is rampant - but that’s because a greater number of people have the virus.

I think this is why the UK government have decided to go for herd immunity **in the under-18 population** (an important distinction, that a lot of people seem to be missing). The UK have judged that, medically, that's actually preferable to giving vaccines that only have emergency authorisation to under-18s, and that seems a reasonable decision to come to. And by removing restrictions now, they are ensuring the third wave will hit before winter, when it would be far worse. That's what the "now is a better time than the Autumn" discussion was about. Every epidemic has an “exit wave”, and it always about managing that,

(Arguably they shouldn't have delayed until 19th July, but the outcry would have been even bigger, from those who don’t read beyond the headlines, or who listen to what some bloke on the Internet said, rather than epidemiologists and similar specialists.)

The official figures for protection from the “stronger” Delta variant with both jabs of Pfizer and AZ are 96% and 92% respectively. That's a massive reduction in susceptibility, and in epidemic modelling, susceptibility is the first and most crucial element. This is why vaccination - particularly with the success rates of these actual vaccines - is such a game changer.

This is why our death figures are so low now. Most of the people being hospitalised are un- or partially vaccinated, and much younger. There are now more under-55s in hospital with Covid than over-54s. I know some doctors are expressing doubts about this, but it’s not because they are worried about young people being in hospital, so much as NHS are exhausted and drained, and the inevitable third/exit wave is going to stretch them again. But if this works, then it will still be better to have this happen before winter as, despite expected hospitalisations, it is expected that very few deaths will result, and it won’t coincide with the normal uplift in workload over winter,

I keep seeing a lot of people going on about a third wave being inevitable, which is kind of dumb, because the government know that, and have planned for that, hence the timing. I’m no fan of the UK government, and it would be very rare of me to suggest they’ve got something right, but in this instance they do appear to have taken advice and the plan seems sensible. The third wave, when it comes, will not result in mass hospitalisation, and is likely to result in less loss of life than the average flu season.

The problem is now, that for so long at the beginning, people were told not to compare covid with flu, because it was so deadly in comparison. But with the vaccines as successful as they have been (and far more so than expected), the mortality rate for covid will be less than seasonal flu. So now, it is worth comparing the two, but the damage has been done, and now any loss of life is being seen as one too many. Which is true, to a certain extent, but people accept it for flu, so they’re now going to have to learn to accept it for covid.

The UK government are a bunch of self-serving W⚓️S, that have no morals, and care only about their wealth and that of their cronies. I can’t stand any of them, because I’m a woke leftie snowflake, but I can’t help but think they have made the right choice here.


I can't argue with any of this excellent summation!
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 10 2021 at 07:21
Originally posted by progaardvark progaardvark wrote:

It seems every time this virus produces a new variant, it's worse than the previous one. 

I guess it depends what you mean by worse. Susceptibility and mortality present two quite different statistics to look at. I remember learning in science at high school about the basic nature of viruses. Any novel virus tends to be fairly deadly, but in order for a virus to thrive it mutates to become more contagious, but less deadly. It is extraordinarily rare for a virus mutation to be more deadly. Thus, it comes as no great surprise that the virus has already mutated more than once, and that each successive mutation has appeared to be far more contagious than the previous. But the mortality rate kd the mutations is not as great. It might not appear that way, because deaths are still incredibly high in places where the virus is rampant - but that’s because a greater number of people have the virus.

I think this is why the UK government have decided to go for herd immunity **in the under-18 population** (an important distinction, that a lot of people seem to be missing). The UK have judged that, medically, that's actually preferable to giving vaccines that only have emergency authorisation to under-18s, and that seems a reasonable decision to come to. And by removing restrictions now, they are ensuring the third wave will hit before winter, when it would be far worse. That's what the "now is a better time than the Autumn" discussion was about. Every epidemic has an “exit wave”, and it always about managing that,

(Arguably they shouldn't have delayed until 19th July, but the outcry would have been even bigger, from those who don’t read beyond the headlines, or who listen to what some bloke on the Internet said, rather than epidemiologists and similar specialists.)

The official figures for protection from the “stronger” Delta variant with both jabs of Pfizer and AZ are 96% and 92% respectively. That's a massive reduction in susceptibility, and in epidemic modelling, susceptibility is the first and most crucial element. This is why vaccination - particularly with the success rates of these actual vaccines - is such a game changer.

This is why our death figures are so low now. Most of the people being hospitalised are un- or partially vaccinated, and much younger. There are now more under-55s in hospital with Covid than over-54s. I know some doctors are expressing doubts about this, but it’s not because they are worried about young people being in hospital, so much as NHS are exhausted and drained, and the inevitable third/exit wave is going to stretch them again. But if this works, then it will still be better to have this happen before winter as, despite expected hospitalisations, it is expected that very few deaths will result, and it won’t coincide with the normal uplift in workload over winter,

I keep seeing a lot of people going on about a third wave being inevitable, which is kind of dumb, because the government know that, and have planned for that, hence the timing. I’m no fan of the UK government, and it would be very rare of me to suggest they’ve got something right, but in this instance they do appear to have taken advice and the plan seems sensible. The third wave, when it comes, will not result in mass hospitalisation, and is likely to result in less loss of life than the average flu season.

The problem is now, that for so long at the beginning, people were told not to compare covid with flu, because it was so deadly in comparison. But with the vaccines as successful as they have been (and far more so than expected), the mortality rate for covid will be less than seasonal flu. So now, it is worth comparing the two, but the damage has been done, and now any loss of life is being seen as one too many. Which is true, to a certain extent, but people accept it for flu, so they’re now going to have to learn to accept it for covid.

The UK government are a bunch of self-serving W⚓️S, that have no morals, and care only about their wealth and that of their cronies. I can’t stand any of them, because I’m a woke leftie snowflake, but I can’t help but think they have made the right choice here.

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 10 2021 at 07:02
^ I don’t think it’s odd at all.

I suspect that there is a relationship between how badly affected by side effects people are, and how badly they were affected/would have been affected by the virus itself.

Anecdotal, I know, but everyone I know that had the virus and suffered only mildly (no worse than the common cold) had no side effects from their vaccines. Those I know who didn’t fare so well with covid, appear to be the ones who have suffered after one or other of their jabs. So, in my mind, it isn’t much of a stretch to think that if you suffered no ill effects from the vaccine, you are one of those who wouldn’t have suffered greatly if you’d actually caught the virus. And, conversely, if you did react badly to the vaccine, you’d probably not have had a good time if you did have covid.

Personally, I had approximately 48 hours of feeling like complete and utter crap after my first (AZ) jab. The biggest difference between how bad I felt after my jab, and when I had covid, was that I didn’t have any struggle to breathe after the vaccine. But otherwise, it was a very comparable feeling.

Any vaccine causes different degrees of reaction between people, so it’s certainly not odd for some people to have no side effects from the covid vaccine(s), and others to be laid quite low.

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 10 2021 at 05:19
Originally posted by dr wu23 dr wu23 wrote:

It's odd the people that say they had reactions to their shots....my wife and I are old folks and we felt nothing after either shot...Pfizer. And most of the people I know had no significant effects either. A few had a headache fatigue, etc but nothing much.
Regarding those who are against the vaccine for 'freedom of choice and liberty' reasons. ..well..I guess dying to prove you're free is worth it to them.  Ermm
Why is it odd? I know people who have had bad reactions, particularly to the AZ vaccine. 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 09 2021 at 22:07
It's odd the people that say they had reactions to their shots....my wife and I are old folks and we felt nothing after either shot...Pfizer. And most of the people I know had no significant effects either. A few had a headache fatigue, etc but nothing much.
Regarding those who are against the vaccine for 'freedom of choice and liberty' reasons. ..well..I guess dying to prove you're free is worth it to them.  Ermm


Edited by dr wu23 - July 09 2021 at 22:07
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 09 2021 at 16:56
Originally posted by progaardvark progaardvark wrote:

It seems every time this virus produces a new variant, it's worse than the previous one. 
Much like a certain political party, wouldn't you say?
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 09 2021 at 11:46
Imagine a world where the conspiracy theorists are right; we, the vaccinated, turn into manipulated zombie-like creatures and the conspiracy theorists are fighting us tooth and nail. Oh, imagine a happy ending. They find the cure to reverse the effect of the vaccine, we all thank them and admit that we were wrong. Ultimately, we both gird up our loins and wage a war against Bill Gates and the other evil manipulators. A filmworthy plot, don't you think? Cool
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 09 2021 at 11:11
My second dose of Moderna kicked my a$$ for 2 days..........Fever, body aches galore. The first night I was not able to sleep from the body aches. 

Wonder what a booster shot will do......Shocked
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 09 2021 at 10:21
My second dose of the Moderna vaccine knocked me out for a day: aches all over, a persistent headache, sinus drainage, and a small rash around the injection site that went on for a couple more days. It's certainly worth it considering the alternative.

I certainly hope that the companies making these vaccines find a way to get it to all the countries that are lacking access. It seems every time this virus produces a new variant, it's worse than the previous one. 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 09 2021 at 10:12
https://currently.att.yahoo.com/att/mcconnell-hit-home-truths-saying-072049871.html?.tsrc=daily_mail&uh_test=1_11
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 09 2021 at 10:03
A week to go to get my second dose of BioNTech vaccine. 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 09 2021 at 09:38
Originally posted by olgaol3 olgaol3 wrote:

When the pandemic started, people started been crazy. I remember how there were no products in stores and medicines in pharmacies. I had to look for products in many different stores or online, and I also bought tecfidera medicines for my neighbor online because they couldn`t be found in pharmacies. Fortunately, everything is calmer now. I'm waiting for all people to be vaccinated and everything will be as before!!!

A long way to go on that front, worldwide. 

I feel very lucky to live in the UK where so many of us have been doubly vaccinated.  Cases are rising fast again here but I am pretty confident that the overwhelming of the health services seen during previous waves, will not happen this time round....
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 30 2021 at 23:28
Originally posted by Shadowyzard Shadowyzard wrote:

Madan, sad for your country and glad that you're alright. Hope this a****le virus would be over or turns into a weaker thing before taking us all. I wish a reverse-mutation that would diminish its effectiveness.

Thanks man! The mortality rate isn't any higher than the first wave, is what I am told (if, that is, I can believe the official numbers).  The issue is it's spread way, way faster with the same level of mortality.  So the system is simply unable to cope, to put it very mildly.  It's a complete mess.  Indians didn't learn to actually fear the virus last year.  They/we did distancing and mask wearing more because nobody wanted to end up in quarantines and because Modi had told us to.  This year, there is a genuine fear of dying from the virus.  It doesn't matter that as a percentage, it's no worse than last year.  It's preying on so many more people that everybody knows someone in their thirties or forties who died after getting covid and all in the last one month or so. 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 30 2021 at 11:20
Madan, sad for your country and glad that you're alright. Hope this a****le virus would be over or turns into a weaker thing before taking us all. I wish a reverse-mutation that would diminish its effectiveness.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 30 2021 at 05:55
Truly horrible, and as you say, unbelievable. Cry
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 30 2021 at 05:41
Originally posted by SteveG SteveG wrote:

I'm glad that you and your family are ok. I'm also glad that my online news source was wrong about the estimated cases, but 30 million is still a staggering number. I have seen on the news the shortage of available oxygen in hospitals, with families taking their stricken loved ones to one hospital after another, looking for one that has oxygen for treatment. Even the transporting ambulances have no oxygen. A very sad situation. The US will soon run into a glut of vaccines as many don't want to be inoculated. Perhaps that can help the situation in India.

The tragedy is India is the biggest vaccine manufacturer in the world and could and should have worked out arrangements to manufacture Pfizer/Moderna vaccines here apart from Astrazeneca and the homegrown Covaxin.  Sputnik is already being made here but only for export so a batch of Sputnik vaccines are arriving from Russia.  As I said, you can't make this up.  The sheer hubris and complacency at the top is unbelievable. 

Forget allowing in Pfizer/Moderna, even had they granted the funding that SII, the local manufacturer of Astrazeneca vaccines, asked for last October, we would be in a better place today.  We don't have vaccines now when we need them most. 


Edited by rogerthat - April 30 2021 at 05:42
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 30 2021 at 05:35
I'm glad that you and your family are ok. I'm also glad that my online news source was wrong about the estimated cases, but 30 million is still a staggering number. I have seen on the news the shortage of available oxygen in hospitals, with families taking their stricken loved ones to one hospital after another, looking for one that has oxygen for treatment. Even the transporting ambulances have no oxygen. A very sad situation. The US will soon run into a glut of vaccines as many don't want to be inoculated. Perhaps that can help the situation in India.

Edited by SteveG - April 30 2021 at 05:36
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 30 2021 at 05:24
Originally posted by SteveG SteveG wrote:

After touting low covid numbers a month ago India is now a crisis situation with something like 300 million estimated cases. I hope our friend Madan (rogerthat) is alright.

Thanks Steve, I am fine. Even with having to deal with long covid, I feel like getting it the first time round was a blessing in disguise because this wave is way more contagious and is not weakened enough to be non-lethal.  A top 'journalist' (I mean he turned into a right wing grifter like a Hindi Fox News guy if you will) aged 42 died today.  He had a cardiac arrest a week after getting covid.  We are hearing of many cases where there is a sudden and drastic drop in oxygen saturation levels, like all the way to 70 or even 30 in some cases, and the patient (or their relatives) is left to scramble for help. And with our acute oxygen shortfall, aided by a combination of unforgivable complacency, lack of build up of infrastructure (owing to said complacency) and greedy black-marketing of oxygen (yes, you read that right!), many such people are simply dropping dead. 

This is a scary, scary report from the most populous state of India and one of its poorest - Uttar Pradesh:


I don't think it could be 300 million even with our rampant underreporting (lord, I shudder to think what would happen if it really hit that number).  I am guessing you read 3 million as 300 mil.  The real number of active cases is likely to be 5-10 times of 3 million, so 30 mn.  I would not be surprised to see it top 100 mn though the official number, again, will be much lower. Testing is so poor in some of the worst hit pockets that we are seeing insane positivity rates like 40-50%.  

Here in Mumbai, the positivity rate is 12-13%. Which is still high by international standards but much better than the other metropolises. Our state is ruled by the scion of a fascist rabble rouser (who died a few years back); who would have thought that he of all people would at least show the basic common sense to resist political pressure and impose shutdowns to arrest the spread of the virus here, a couple of weeks before other cities like Delhi followed suit. Even he failed to adequately prepare the city/state for the second wave but at least he acted in time which seems like a miracle compared to the rest of the nation.

Whilst I appreciate and am thankful for the outpouring of help and prayers, I also want for tougher words/action from leaders like Biden or Merkel to knock our Prime Idiot several pegs down, embarrass him till he resigns and flees the job he is patently unsuitable for.  This mess is primarily on him though state govts echoed his own complacency as did the people.  But they echoed the example he was setting...by addressing large rallies of mask-less voters in a state that was going to the polls in April and expressing amazement and delight at how many people had come. You can't make this up.  This megalomaniac needs to go.  Nay, he needs to die, preferable of acute oxygen shortage from covid.  Only then will his puppet health minister stop denying the oxygen crisis we are dealing with.


Edited by rogerthat - April 30 2021 at 05:26
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 30 2021 at 05:00
Originally posted by SteveG SteveG wrote:

After touting low covid numbers a month ago India is now a crisis situation with something like 300 million estimated cases. I hope our friend Madan (rogerthat) is alright.

My company employs a lot of staff in India. A few of my colleagues there have already had the virus and thankfully recovered but the situation is bad, hopefully other countries will help out and improve the situation for them.
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