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progaardvark View Drop Down
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 22 2021 at 15:27
^Maybe this article???
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-81049-2

It's a bit beyond my reading level, but Nature is a reputable peer-reviewed science publication.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 22 2021 at 21:33
Originally posted by Ronstein Ronstein wrote:

Originally posted by lazland lazland wrote:

Originally posted by chopper chopper wrote:

Originally posted by lazland lazland wrote:

Originally posted by chopper chopper wrote:

One thing that puzzles me is our count of covid deaths being defined as "a death within 28 days of a positive test". This implies that it's death due to any cause within 28 days, indeed I heard recently of someone who sadly died in a car accident within 28 days of recovering from covid and he was counted as a covid death. To me this doesn't seem logical and would inflate the covid death count.

Can anyone confirm if this is true or not?

Yes, I can confirm it. It is absolutely the case. This is one of the reasons I have stated that the figures are a crock of sh*t.


That's just bizarre, I wonder how many deaths that have been recorded as covid are actually not due to covid at all then?

No idea, Alan. I doubt anybody has.

I can give you a good example of this literally up the road from me (and if I have posted this before, apologies to all).

In our neighbouring village, Phil Blodyn passed away two weeks ago. The death certificate stated Covid. However........

Phil had had a heart condition for a number of years. He was obese. He developed gangrene, and this spread quite nastily to his back passage. He was taken to West Wales General Hospital, and had to be resuscitated during the op. Unfortunately, he developed Sepsis, a horrendous condition. On the ICU, he also caught Coronavirus (this is, apparently, quite common. The Good Lord keep me away from NHS hospitals, please), and he passed away a couple of days later.

My point? Phil was not a well man. It is probable, indeed highly likely, that he will have passed away anyway, but because he tested positive for Covid on the ICU, he is classed as one of our Covid death victims. Maybe, but it is clearly not as simple as that, and I think that this has been repeated many times.

I have been trying, repeatedly, and without a great deal of success, to explain to Friede that the statistics are meaningless. I can only wonder why they keep repeating them. The cynic in me thinks it is to scare people. Nobody,. Nowhere, knows precisely how many people have died of Covid, or been infected, or where the virus is the PRIMARY causation of death. Nobody.

To an extent, it doesn't matter how the COVID death definition is achieved as long as it's consistent. The real value isn't in the number itself but how its changing. 

Well, a schoolmate of mine - which would make her mid 30s like me - died of covid.  People are dying now for not being able to get oxygen in time.  I supposed that - lack of oxygen - too makes it a non covid death? 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 23 2021 at 00:08
 ^ of course it doesn’t. I am sorry for your loss. 

The discussion you quote was not about Covid as such, but about the manner in which death statistics are drawn up and the lack of knowledge as to the true figure. No more, no less. I am not a Covid denier, as any examination of my posts will uncover. I have been more concerned with the reporting of the virus, endless quoting of rather meaningless statistics, and etc.

With respect, I would be rather more exercised about the scandalous lack of basic provision you refer to in your post than a debate which, in my opinion, has more than run its course here. 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 23 2021 at 00:16
Originally posted by lazland lazland wrote:

 ^ of course it doesn’t. I am sorry for your loss. 

The discussion you quote was not about Covid as such, but about the manner in which death statistics are drawn up and the lack of knowledge as to the true figure. No more, no less. I am not a Covid denier, as any examination of my posts will uncover. I have been more concerned with the reporting of the virus, endless quoting of rather meaningless statistics, and etc.

With respect, I would be rather more exercised about the scandalous lack of basic provision you refer to in your post than a debate which, in my opinion, has more than run its course here. 

The point I was making was in the same way just because a person has some comorbidities doesn't mean they are ripe for death.  They could have continued to live with these comorbidities had they not got covid.  A few months back, a senior colleague in his fifties died of covid because he had cardiovascular/diabetes issues that people may often have in that age group. But he was otherwise healthy enough to attend to work. And my org is not for the faint of heart so he was strong alright. 

So I don't quite agree with the notion that deaths are over-reported.  And on a worldwide level, any over-reporting in the Western universe would easily be compensated (more than, I would argue) by under-reporting in the developing world and that includes China. Fudging statistics is much easier here and it serves our politicians well to rather pretend that covid isn't all that serious.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 23 2021 at 00:22
As for being more exercised by the 'scandalous lack of basic provision', what do you propose I do about it as an ordinary citizen? My state has already put in place a near-lockdown resisting much partisan political pressure against it.  That should hopefully bring down the number of cases to a manageable level over a period of time.  As for the rest, I never stopped wearing masks anyway, not even after I got covid.  I have done my part.  I can't help the ones who won't, especially the ones who will insist on voting back a Prime Minister who has just washed his hands off the crisis to power. 

Edited by rogerthat - April 23 2021 at 00:25
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 30 2021 at 04:04
After touting low covid numbers a month ago India is now a crisis situation with something like 300 million estimated cases. I hope our friend Madan (rogerthat) is alright.

Edited by SteveG - April 30 2021 at 04:07
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 30 2021 at 05:00
Originally posted by SteveG SteveG wrote:

After touting low covid numbers a month ago India is now a crisis situation with something like 300 million estimated cases. I hope our friend Madan (rogerthat) is alright.

My company employs a lot of staff in India. A few of my colleagues there have already had the virus and thankfully recovered but the situation is bad, hopefully other countries will help out and improve the situation for them.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 30 2021 at 05:24
Originally posted by SteveG SteveG wrote:

After touting low covid numbers a month ago India is now a crisis situation with something like 300 million estimated cases. I hope our friend Madan (rogerthat) is alright.

Thanks Steve, I am fine. Even with having to deal with long covid, I feel like getting it the first time round was a blessing in disguise because this wave is way more contagious and is not weakened enough to be non-lethal.  A top 'journalist' (I mean he turned into a right wing grifter like a Hindi Fox News guy if you will) aged 42 died today.  He had a cardiac arrest a week after getting covid.  We are hearing of many cases where there is a sudden and drastic drop in oxygen saturation levels, like all the way to 70 or even 30 in some cases, and the patient (or their relatives) is left to scramble for help. And with our acute oxygen shortfall, aided by a combination of unforgivable complacency, lack of build up of infrastructure (owing to said complacency) and greedy black-marketing of oxygen (yes, you read that right!), many such people are simply dropping dead. 

This is a scary, scary report from the most populous state of India and one of its poorest - Uttar Pradesh:


I don't think it could be 300 million even with our rampant underreporting (lord, I shudder to think what would happen if it really hit that number).  I am guessing you read 3 million as 300 mil.  The real number of active cases is likely to be 5-10 times of 3 million, so 30 mn.  I would not be surprised to see it top 100 mn though the official number, again, will be much lower. Testing is so poor in some of the worst hit pockets that we are seeing insane positivity rates like 40-50%.  

Here in Mumbai, the positivity rate is 12-13%. Which is still high by international standards but much better than the other metropolises. Our state is ruled by the scion of a fascist rabble rouser (who died a few years back); who would have thought that he of all people would at least show the basic common sense to resist political pressure and impose shutdowns to arrest the spread of the virus here, a couple of weeks before other cities like Delhi followed suit. Even he failed to adequately prepare the city/state for the second wave but at least he acted in time which seems like a miracle compared to the rest of the nation.

Whilst I appreciate and am thankful for the outpouring of help and prayers, I also want for tougher words/action from leaders like Biden or Merkel to knock our Prime Idiot several pegs down, embarrass him till he resigns and flees the job he is patently unsuitable for.  This mess is primarily on him though state govts echoed his own complacency as did the people.  But they echoed the example he was setting...by addressing large rallies of mask-less voters in a state that was going to the polls in April and expressing amazement and delight at how many people had come. You can't make this up.  This megalomaniac needs to go.  Nay, he needs to die, preferable of acute oxygen shortage from covid.  Only then will his puppet health minister stop denying the oxygen crisis we are dealing with.


Edited by rogerthat - April 30 2021 at 05:26
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 30 2021 at 05:35
I'm glad that you and your family are ok. I'm also glad that my online news source was wrong about the estimated cases, but 30 million is still a staggering number. I have seen on the news the shortage of available oxygen in hospitals, with families taking their stricken loved ones to one hospital after another, looking for one that has oxygen for treatment. Even the transporting ambulances have no oxygen. A very sad situation. The US will soon run into a glut of vaccines as many don't want to be inoculated. Perhaps that can help the situation in India.

Edited by SteveG - April 30 2021 at 05:36
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 30 2021 at 05:41
Originally posted by SteveG SteveG wrote:

I'm glad that you and your family are ok. I'm also glad that my online news source was wrong about the estimated cases, but 30 million is still a staggering number. I have seen on the news the shortage of available oxygen in hospitals, with families taking their stricken loved ones to one hospital after another, looking for one that has oxygen for treatment. Even the transporting ambulances have no oxygen. A very sad situation. The US will soon run into a glut of vaccines as many don't want to be inoculated. Perhaps that can help the situation in India.

The tragedy is India is the biggest vaccine manufacturer in the world and could and should have worked out arrangements to manufacture Pfizer/Moderna vaccines here apart from Astrazeneca and the homegrown Covaxin.  Sputnik is already being made here but only for export so a batch of Sputnik vaccines are arriving from Russia.  As I said, you can't make this up.  The sheer hubris and complacency at the top is unbelievable. 

Forget allowing in Pfizer/Moderna, even had they granted the funding that SII, the local manufacturer of Astrazeneca vaccines, asked for last October, we would be in a better place today.  We don't have vaccines now when we need them most. 


Edited by rogerthat - April 30 2021 at 05:42
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 30 2021 at 05:55
Truly horrible, and as you say, unbelievable. Cry
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 30 2021 at 11:20
Madan, sad for your country and glad that you're alright. Hope this a****le virus would be over or turns into a weaker thing before taking us all. I wish a reverse-mutation that would diminish its effectiveness.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: April 30 2021 at 23:28
Originally posted by Shadowyzard Shadowyzard wrote:

Madan, sad for your country and glad that you're alright. Hope this a****le virus would be over or turns into a weaker thing before taking us all. I wish a reverse-mutation that would diminish its effectiveness.

Thanks man! The mortality rate isn't any higher than the first wave, is what I am told (if, that is, I can believe the official numbers).  The issue is it's spread way, way faster with the same level of mortality.  So the system is simply unable to cope, to put it very mildly.  It's a complete mess.  Indians didn't learn to actually fear the virus last year.  They/we did distancing and mask wearing more because nobody wanted to end up in quarantines and because Modi had told us to.  This year, there is a genuine fear of dying from the virus.  It doesn't matter that as a percentage, it's no worse than last year.  It's preying on so many more people that everybody knows someone in their thirties or forties who died after getting covid and all in the last one month or so. 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 09 2021 at 09:38
Originally posted by olgaol3 olgaol3 wrote:

When the pandemic started, people started been crazy. I remember how there were no products in stores and medicines in pharmacies. I had to look for products in many different stores or online, and I also bought tecfidera medicines for my neighbor online because they couldn`t be found in pharmacies. Fortunately, everything is calmer now. I'm waiting for all people to be vaccinated and everything will be as before!!!

A long way to go on that front, worldwide. 

I feel very lucky to live in the UK where so many of us have been doubly vaccinated.  Cases are rising fast again here but I am pretty confident that the overwhelming of the health services seen during previous waves, will not happen this time round....
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 09 2021 at 10:03
A week to go to get my second dose of BioNTech vaccine. 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 09 2021 at 10:12
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 09 2021 at 10:21
My second dose of the Moderna vaccine knocked me out for a day: aches all over, a persistent headache, sinus drainage, and a small rash around the injection site that went on for a couple more days. It's certainly worth it considering the alternative.

I certainly hope that the companies making these vaccines find a way to get it to all the countries that are lacking access. It seems every time this virus produces a new variant, it's worse than the previous one. 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 09 2021 at 11:11
My second dose of Moderna kicked my a$$ for 2 days..........Fever, body aches galore. The first night I was not able to sleep from the body aches. 

Wonder what a booster shot will do......Shocked
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 09 2021 at 11:46
Imagine a world where the conspiracy theorists are right; we, the vaccinated, turn into manipulated zombie-like creatures and the conspiracy theorists are fighting us tooth and nail. Oh, imagine a happy ending. They find the cure to reverse the effect of the vaccine, we all thank them and admit that we were wrong. Ultimately, we both gird up our loins and wage a war against Bill Gates and the other evil manipulators. A filmworthy plot, don't you think? Cool
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: July 09 2021 at 16:56
Originally posted by progaardvark progaardvark wrote:

It seems every time this virus produces a new variant, it's worse than the previous one. 
Much like a certain political party, wouldn't you say?
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