Covid-19 and the madness of crowds

lazland wrote: richardh wrote: lazland wrote: With reference to the new variant of the lurg, what this tells us is that nobody in any corridor of power anywhere has learnt anything over the past nine months. Not a thing. Following Johnson’s u-turn at the weekend regarding “cancelling” Christmas, on Sunday, our esteemed Health Secretary, Mr Matt Wancock, was wheeled out to do the Sunday morning political show interviews. With a flunky obviously standing close by with another bag of sliced onions to draw out the tears, he informed the nation that the new variant was “out of control” as it had “mutated”, and that they had only been informed of this on the Friday afternoon by Doctors Doom and Gloom, and had acted “decisively” in changing the tier rules on Saturday, less than a week before Christmas, and, hilariously, three days after Boris had accused Keir Starmer of wanting to “cancel Christmas”. The great British press, including The Sunday Times which I buy, naturally led all of their front pages with headline gems such as “Mutant Virus Rages Across UK” or “Mutant Virus Cancels Christmas” and so on and so forth, ad nauseum.  Equally predictably, our European “friends” took Wancock at his word, declared an emergency so grave that they banned all travel to and from Britain, and, utterly gleefully on the part of France, banned freight travel to and from Dover, thus having the additional benefit of showing us precisely what a no deal Brexit might look like with days to go before the transition period end. So, absolutely no considered language, absolutely no nuance, absolutely no common sense or scientific rigidity at all, again. We have entered a new national lockdown, the third one, here in Wales, probably only because our Labour led devolved government simply love to clamp down harder than the evil Tories in London. Ditto Ma Kranky in Scotland. In Wales’ case, they were clearly following the lead of the beloved Dear Leader Starmer, who had called for stricter measures deliberately to have Johnson take the piss, a trap the PM incredibly fell into yet again. When will we ever learn? What have we done to deserve this? We have a population (and it is precisely the same across Europe with only a couple of exceptions) which has been both infantilised by ridiculous central edicts and petrified witless by the fear and loathing inflicted upon it by both government and media. Viruses spread. Viruses mutate. These are fundamental tenets of microbiology. You cannot, as our PM insists, “keep your foot on the throat” of a virus. You cannot stop a virus spreading when you do not lockdown, properly, an entire population and cannot get an effective testing and tracking regime in place. The measures being taken here are shockingly ineffective, and that ought to be obvious to all but the greatest moron by now. It is becoming apparently clear that this latest increase in infections is being led primarily by school children bringing it back home. Naturally, they are keeping the schools open until the next u-turn.  The measures are also having the most shocking impact on people’s lives, livelihoods, and are showing up just how sh*te our health and welfare infrastructures are, not to mention the shocking state of health amongst a large proportion of fatties and others ramming a diet of sh*t fast processed food down their necks on a daily basis. All this for a virus which you have a 99%+ chance of surviving. Before I get roasted for this, take a look at Qatar. They have tested 44% of their population, and found that something like 11% of them have had the lurg. Of these, the mortality rate is 0.2%, a figure which I have been pretty consistent in stating in this forum. Before people Sl*g me off, I have no doubt whatsoever that catching this thing is not pleasant, and can lead to fatalities in some. I would rather avoid catching it, although I think I caught a dose in March as I have relayed, and certainly don’t want to infect those I love. That is why I take sensible precautions. I ascertain risk and act accordingly. Like an increasing proportion now of our people, I absolutely despair at the incredibly stupid and incompetent rules being imposed upon us, and how all common sense has been abandoned in a “fight” against probably the weakest and least effective viral pandemic in the history of human mortality. What is the one lesson this has taught us all? The most effective regimes in combatting this thing have been those which utilise high levels of technology and coercion among their populations. If there is one thing worse than an authoritarian government, it is an incompetent one. Which is what we have right now. When people continually ask that government “help me”, “save me”, “do something, anything”, I hope that they will have learned by now to be extremely careful of what they wish for. Lastly, given that the pubs here have been closed again for weeks, and case numbers have continued to rise, any chance of our leaders admitting that said boozers are not the main culprit in the spread, and opening them up again so I can enjoy a few pints in front of a log fire? No, thought not........ a truly remarkable post I have to share that I lost my Dad to undiagnosed Motor Neurone Disease very recently. The worst thing about this was that he was isolated from his loving children and grand children for the last 9 months. I was lucky enough to speak to him before he died and had a proper conversation. I had completely forgotten what a joy it was to be beside him and have a proper chat. f**k COVID and the obsession with it. At the moment I am hoping where I live (Swindon) will stay out of Tier 4 for just a few more days so we can have a 'normal' Christmas Day (as normal as it can be without Dad) before the inevitable lock down. I feel so sorry for everyone that cannot. The mental toll and fall out could actually be far greater that the f**king thing itself. People have had enough that's for sure. Richard, so sorry to hear about your father. We send our best wishes to you from West Wales. MND is a horrible condition. Your story is, I am afraid, one which is being heard increasingly across the country, although not so much in the media, of the terrible costs being inflicted on people through undiagnosed conditions, cancelled procedures, and the denial of the simple joy of being with loved ones.

BaldFriede wrote: lazland wrote: richardh wrote: lazland wrote: With reference to the new variant of the lurg, what this tells us is that nobody in any corridor of power anywhere has learnt anything over the past nine months. Not a thing. Following Johnson’s u-turn at the weekend regarding “cancelling” Christmas, on Sunday, our esteemed Health Secretary, Mr Matt Wancock, was wheeled out to do the Sunday morning political show interviews. With a flunky obviously standing close by with another bag of sliced onions to draw out the tears, he informed the nation that the new variant was “out of control” as it had “mutated”, and that they had only been informed of this on the Friday afternoon by Doctors Doom and Gloom, and had acted “decisively” in changing the tier rules on Saturday, less than a week before Christmas, and, hilariously, three days after Boris had accused Keir Starmer of wanting to “cancel Christmas”. The great British press, including The Sunday Times which I buy, naturally led all of their front pages with headline gems such as “Mutant Virus Rages Across UK” or “Mutant Virus Cancels Christmas” and so on and so forth, ad nauseum.  Equally predictably, our European “friends” took Wancock at his word, declared an emergency so grave that they banned all travel to and from Britain, and, utterly gleefully on the part of France, banned freight travel to and from Dover, thus having the additional benefit of showing us precisely what a no deal Brexit might look like with days to go before the transition period end. So, absolutely no considered language, absolutely no nuance, absolutely no common sense or scientific rigidity at all, again. We have entered a new national lockdown, the third one, here in Wales, probably only because our Labour led devolved government simply love to clamp down harder than the evil Tories in London. Ditto Ma Kranky in Scotland. In Wales’ case, they were clearly following the lead of the beloved Dear Leader Starmer, who had called for stricter measures deliberately to have Johnson take the piss, a trap the PM incredibly fell into yet again. When will we ever learn? What have we done to deserve this? We have a population (and it is precisely the same across Europe with only a couple of exceptions) which has been both infantilised by ridiculous central edicts and petrified witless by the fear and loathing inflicted upon it by both government and media. Viruses spread. Viruses mutate. These are fundamental tenets of microbiology. You cannot, as our PM insists, “keep your foot on the throat” of a virus. You cannot stop a virus spreading when you do not lockdown, properly, an entire population and cannot get an effective testing and tracking regime in place. The measures being taken here are shockingly ineffective, and that ought to be obvious to all but the greatest moron by now. It is becoming apparently clear that this latest increase in infections is being led primarily by school children bringing it back home. Naturally, they are keeping the schools open until the next u-turn.  The measures are also having the most shocking impact on people’s lives, livelihoods, and are showing up just how sh*te our health and welfare infrastructures are, not to mention the shocking state of health amongst a large proportion of fatties and others ramming a diet of sh*t fast processed food down their necks on a daily basis. All this for a virus which you have a 99%+ chance of surviving. Before I get roasted for this, take a look at Qatar. They have tested 44% of their population, and found that something like 11% of them have had the lurg. Of these, the mortality rate is 0.2%, a figure which I have been pretty consistent in stating in this forum. Before people Sl*g me off, I have no doubt whatsoever that catching this thing is not pleasant, and can lead to fatalities in some. I would rather avoid catching it, although I think I caught a dose in March as I have relayed, and certainly don’t want to infect those I love. That is why I take sensible precautions. I ascertain risk and act accordingly. Like an increasing proportion now of our people, I absolutely despair at the incredibly stupid and incompetent rules being imposed upon us, and how all common sense has been abandoned in a “fight” against probably the weakest and least effective viral pandemic in the history of human mortality. What is the one lesson this has taught us all? The most effective regimes in combatting this thing have been those which utilise high levels of technology and coercion among their populations. If there is one thing worse than an authoritarian government, it is an incompetent one. Which is what we have right now. When people continually ask that government “help me”, “save me”, “do something, anything”, I hope that they will have learned by now to be extremely careful of what they wish for. Lastly, given that the pubs here have been closed again for weeks, and case numbers have continued to rise, any chance of our leaders admitting that said boozers are not the main culprit in the spread, and opening them up again so I can enjoy a few pints in front of a log fire? No, thought not........ a truly remarkable post I have to share that I lost my Dad to undiagnosed Motor Neurone Disease very recently. The worst thing about this was that he was isolated from his loving children and grand children for the last 9 months. I was lucky enough to speak to him before he died and had a proper conversation. I had completely forgotten what a joy it was to be beside him and have a proper chat. f**k COVID and the obsession with it. At the moment I am hoping where I live (Swindon) will stay out of Tier 4 for just a few more days so we can have a 'normal' Christmas Day (as normal as it can be without Dad) before the inevitable lock down. I feel so sorry for everyone that cannot. The mental toll and fall out could actually be far greater that the f**king thing itself. People have had enough that's for sure. Richard, so sorry to hear about your father. We send our best wishes to you from West Wales. MND is a horrible condition. Your story is, I am afraid, one which is being heard increasingly across the country, although not so much in the media, of the terrible costs being inflicted on people through undiagnosed conditions, cancelled procedures, and the denial of the simple joy of being with loved ones. Sorry, but are you serious with this comparison to Qatar? You can't compare the death rate of a disease in two different countries without comparing things like demographics, average income of the average worker, cost of living, healthcare standards etc. Just as an example: The average male in Qatar is about four years younger than the average male in the USA. For women the average age difference is eleven years even (the average woman in Qatar is actually 28.2 years old)! About 27% of the population in Qatar are women. All these factors have to be taken into account for a comparison. If you compare them all (as I did) it is not surprising that the Covid-19 death rate is much lower in Qatar than it is in the USA.

Friede. Firstly, it isn’t particularly nice to carry on this conversation endlessly quoting the post which Richard put up about his father.

lazland wrote: Friede. Firstly, it isn’t particularly nice to carry on this conversation endlessly quoting the post which Richard put up about his father. Secondly, I didn’t say that. You did. Thirdly. To repeat. Again. Nobody knows what the true mortality rate of Mr Lurgy is. Not me, not you, not anyone.  Fourthly. Arsenal lost again last night. Fifthly. I have just enjoyed a really enjoyable slice of chocolate Yule log. Utterly delicious, and purchased from Lidl, which should make you exceptionally proud. Vorsprung and etc. Sixthly. I will be 56 next Tuesday.  Seventhly. The existence of God has recently been proven by a group of analytical German mathematicians utilising various quantum equations. The chances of Said Lord existing is said to likely be 88.6546%. Unfortunately, a bunch of Qatarian scientists have now questioned the methodology of these equations, and the debate is said to be likely to run and run for the next 10,000 years. Eighthly. I can’t play cricket any more owing to a gammy foot. Ninthly. My pussy cat prefers meaty chunks to vegan sausages. In fact, she can’t stand the latter. Therefore, I have to cope with the guilt that my little Ally Pally contributes to the emerging global climate crisis, although it is estimated that said contribution is rather less than 0.000001%, a figure disputed by some eminent German climatologists. Tenthly. f**k me, this is fun, isn’t it? Just chewing the fat like old mockers?

Why, thank you chaps. Most kind.

chopper wrote: lazland wrote: chopper wrote: One thing that puzzles me is our count of covid deaths being defined as "a death within 28 days of a positive test". This implies that it's death due to any cause within 28 days, indeed I heard recently of someone who sadly died in a car accident within 28 days of recovering from covid and he was counted as a covid death. To me this doesn't seem logical and would inflate the covid death count. Can anyone confirm if this is true or not? Yes, I can confirm it. It is absolutely the case. This is one of the reasons I have stated that the figures are a crock of sh*t. That's just bizarre, I wonder how many deaths that have been recorded as covid are actually not due to covid at all then?

kenethlevine wrote: lazland wrote: chopper wrote: One thing that puzzles me is our count of covid deaths being defined as "a death within 28 days of a positive test". This implies that it's death due to any cause within 28 days, indeed I heard recently of someone who sadly died in a car accident within 28 days of recovering from covid and he was counted as a covid death. To me this doesn't seem logical and would inflate the covid death count. Can anyone confirm if this is true or not? Yes, I can confirm it. It is absolutely the case. This is one of the reasons I have stated that the figures are a crock of sh*t. I don't believe that that is true.  I continue to believe that the number of COVID deaths is underreported not overrreported.   Here is a pretty respectable look at this car accident phenom that seems to be spreading faster in the right wing media than COVID does at a 900 person indoor mask challenged  holiday party thrown by a member of Donald Trump's cabinet.  I understand that you can probably dig up hundreds of links that state that all accidents in COVID patients are classed as COVID deaths, but in this link they take the trouble to explain those very few cases that led to the conflating that is so prevalent on (mostly) right wing sites. https://www.wzzm13.com/article/news/verify/covid-deaths-car-crash-comorbidities-coronavirus-death-total-counts-john-hopkins-study/65-e3842ed2-f753-4a15-8b97-c2ae75c2b2ce

kenethlevine wrote: lazland wrote: chopper wrote: lazland wrote: chopper wrote: One thing that puzzles me is our count of covid deaths being defined as "a death within 28 days of a positive test". This implies that it's death due to any cause within 28 days, indeed I heard recently of someone who sadly died in a car accident within 28 days of recovering from covid and he was counted as a covid death. To me this doesn't seem logical and would inflate the covid death count. Can anyone confirm if this is true or not? Yes, I can confirm it. It is absolutely the case. This is one of the reasons I have stated that the figures are a crock of sh*t. That's just bizarre, I wonder how many deaths that have been recorded as covid are actually not due to covid at all then? No idea, Alan. I doubt anybody has. I can give you a good example of this literally up the road from me (and if I have posted this before, apologies to all). In our neighbouring village, Phil Blodyn passed away two weeks ago. The death certificate stated Covid. However........ Phil had had a heart condition for a number of years. He was obese. He developed gangrene, and this spread quite nastily to his back passage. He was taken to West Wales General Hospital, and had to be resuscitated during the op. Unfortunately, he developed Sepsis, a horrendous condition. On the ICU, he also caught Coronavirus (this is, apparently, quite common. The Good Lord keep me away from NHS hospitals, please), and he passed away a couple of days later. My point? Phil was not a well man. It is probable, indeed highly likely, that he will have passed away anyway, but because he tested positive for Covid on the ICU, he is classed as one of our Covid death victims. Maybe, but it is clearly not as simple as that, and I think that this has been repeated many times. I have been trying, repeatedly, and without a great deal of success, to explain to Friede that the statistics are meaningless. I can only wonder why they keep repeating them. The cynic in me thinks it is to scare people. Nobody,. Nowhere, knows precisely how many people have died of Covid, or been infected, or where the virus is the PRIMARY causation of death. Nobody. Steve, I can't speak for the way things are reported in UK, but I know a fair bit about how they are reported in US, since one of my hats is looking at death data.  Cause of death data is indeed not super well reported here.  They tend to list a primary cause of death, secondary/contributing causes, and, sometimes, immediate cause.  One of our experts felt that the only meaningful extraction of death data is "all cause death", as the choice of whether a cause should be primary or secondary can be difficult to discern and two different examiners could choose differently.  But the important thing I wanted to point out is that even a secondary cause of death is significant.  With COVID striking people with one or more pre existing conditions much more readily than those who don't, it is tempting and not unreasonable to question whether the patient would have died of something else anyway.  But COVID seems to be the thing that accelerates the higher mortality risk to be an immediate risk as opposed to a decade or two down the line.   To not list it as a cause in such cases would be somewhat deceitful.

At this point in my life, I pretty much trust nothing I hear third hand from the media.  But I do know a few people who have had Covid.  And it's pretty unpleasant from the people I know who have had it.  But I don't know anyone who died from it.  That said, on the few occasions I leave my house (once a week, me and the old lady go grocery shopping and that's about it), I do wear a mask and try to keep my distance from others, and fuss at my wife if she doesn't have her mask on right.  I work from home, so I don't need to worry about getting it at work (everyone I know who had it either got it from work or got it from a family member who got it at work).  And having multiple cats and being allergic to cats, I wash my hands almost OCD anyway. 

But I'm generally of the live and let live variety, with a few exceptions.  If someone's not wearing a mask, it really isn't my business.  Unless they get up in my face and start coughing on me.  Then there's a problem.  But I don't like the government overreach on this.  Crashing the economy in the name of public safety just doesn't work for me, nor does government mandating what people wear or don't wear on their faces.  And I really don't like governments calling for people to turn each other in for gathering or not wearing a mask.  That just strikes me as too much USSR or Nazi Germany for my taste. 

As for how they count Covid deaths, I've heard multiple things and I don't know what to believe on that. Whatever is going on with that, I think governments of the west are using it as an opportunity to seize power that they have no business seizing.