American Politics the 2016 edition

Raff wrote: On a related note, the Italian Minister of Economy, Pier Carlo Padoan, has had some strong words about Trump and the possibility of his election - stating that it would be a shock for financial markets and cause some more long-term instability.

rogerthat wrote: Raff wrote: On a related note, the Italian Minister of Economy, Pier Carlo Padoan, has had some strong words about Trump and the possibility of his election - stating that it would be a shock for financial markets and cause some more long-term instability. As it is, stock markets are overvalued because really low interest rates have driven a lot of bad money to equity.  So an event like Trump becoming Prez of US could be just the perfect trigger for a perfect storm scenario.  People are downplaying its impact now, but then they also downplayed the meltdown until it happened.

well... let's see if I do better here than with my NHL prediction

though this one is like shooting fish in a barrel.

The official WAY TOO EARLY McPrediction.

Hillary haters will hate...  she'll top out around 45%
minority haters, misogynists,  and bigots will hate... Trump will get the hard core racists bigots and irresponsible voters that blame everyone but the people THEY put into power in Congress for the lack of anything being done. Make America Great Again.....yeah...well then vote out a Republican

Trump gets 40%

The Libritarians take the wacky kids and drain establishment GOP votes who feign repulsion at Trump. For merely dropping the attempt to be circumspect that has been page 1 of the GOP ESTABLISHMENT playbook for 20 years... and directly and without political double speak..appealing to bigots and backwards thinkers.

Liberatarians take 15% of the vote.

The result. The biggest electoral landslide seen since 1984.  Hillary obviously takes all blue states. Blue leaning. Takes all battleground and steals a few states beginning the slide from red leaning to battleground (N.C, Arizone, perhaps even Georgia).

Can't really see much changing that electoral math. Now that Bernie has got it through his thick head he lost and only loses more by continuing or worse going 3rd party.

Other than Trump doing a complete 180. I don't think he is capable of it... and I don't think the political wizardly of Clinton would let the American public be fooled or forget what he has said.


Edited by micky - June 10 2016 at 16:19

It goes beyond that. Remember when I brought up how Trump apparently thinks he can flip several solidly blue states? It's true. What little resources he has - and he's counting on state Republicans to do all the heavy lifting - is going to political bridges to nowhere. In my neck of the woods, he's convinced the baseball bat swinging omnibigot Carl Paladino that New York can go to the GOP on the strength of the long suffering upstate vote. Reality check: if the upstate vote was enough to carry the state, Paladino would be governor right now.

^^ you win Phrase of the Day for "baseball bat swinging omnibigot".






Edited by Atavachron - June 11 2016 at 00:53

BTW Bernie isn't going 3rd party and never was, yeeeesh

^ In first-past-the-post voting third parties can never succeed in doing anything of value other than proving that it's a two-party system. They can attract a significantly large percentage of the vote (in theory as much as 49.999% if they come second in every red state and every blue state) but because they are the alternative loser and never the alternative winner they will always be in overall third place.

emigre80 wrote: micky wrote: well... let's see if I do better here than with my NHL prediction though this one is like shooting fish in a barrel. The official WAY TOO EARLY McPrediction. Hillary haters will hate...  she'll top out around 45% minority haters, misogynists,  and bigots will hate... Trump will get the hard core racists bigots and irresponsible voters that blame everyone but the people THEY put into power in Congress for the lack of anything being done. Make America Great Again.....yeah...well then vote out a Republican Trump gets 40% The Libritarians take the wacky kids and drain establishment GOP votes who feign repulsion at Trump. For merely dropping the attempt to be circumspect that has been page 1 of the GOP ESTABLISHMENT playbook for 20 years... and directly and without political double speak..appealing to bigots and backwards thinkers. Liberatarians take 15% of the vote. The result. The biggest electoral landslide seen since 1984.  Hillary obviously takes all blue states. Blue leaning. Takes all battleground and steals a few states beginning the slide from red leaning to battleground (N.C, Arizone, perhaps even Georgia). Can't really see much changing that electoral math. Now that Bernie has got it through his thick head he lost and only loses more by continuing or worse going 3rd party. Other than Trump doing a complete 180. I don't think he is capable of it... and I don't think the political wizardly of Clinton would let the American public be fooled or forget what he has said.   it's a fairly plausible scenario, particularly when you consider the Trump campaign seems to be broke, he's not going to put any money into it (if he even has the money) and refuses to staff his campaign or do any organizing.  He's going up against a very solid and well organized campaign, with lots of outreach. Plus Clinton has Obama, Warren, Biden and Clinton I in her corner.   It could be a rout. It will be a long five months for those of us who remember the Democratic capacity for shooting ourselves in the foot.  You can never rule it out.

yep... the electoral math already favored HIllary.. if Trump had to defend Red states.. it is game over and it looks pretty easy to see he is going to have to.  

Yeah... Trump's VP choice will be interesting.. in that who in their right mind would accept it. Talk about the political equivalent of putting a loaded gun in your mouth and pulling the trigger. Political career suicide. Thus I tend to think no national political figure would touch it.  Which means he may to go with someone outside of the box.... Perhaps he can go with David Duke....

This whole week I have been trying to explain facts from lies etc. Today I need a break really :)