Progarchives.com has always (since 2002) relied on banners ads to cover web hosting fees and all.
Please consider supporting us by giving monthly PayPal donations and help keep PA fast-loading and ad-free forever.
/PAlogo_v2.gif "Progarchives.com Homepage") |
Quo Vadis Ukraine? |
Post Reply 
|
Page 123 16> |
| Author | |||
MikeEnRegalia 
Special Collaborator 
Honorary Collaborator Joined: April 22 2005 Location: Sweden Status: Online Points: 21596 |
 Post Options
 Thanks(0)
 Quote Reply
 Topic: Quo Vadis Ukraine?Posted: October 05 2023 at 06:39 |
||
|
Here's a fairly recent talk by John Mearsheimer that I find quite enlightening. What will happen in the Ukraine in the winter 2023/2024? The outlook is grim, but wishful thinking will not change the facts.
|
|||
 |
|||
|
Sean Trane
Special Collaborator
Prog Folk Joined: April 29 2004 Location: Heart of Europe Status: Offline Points: 20414 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: October 05 2023 at 07:39 |
||
I'd never heard of this guy until yesterday evening when I read the DSOTM redux thread and your post. I only listened to the first 30 mins, but it's amazing how this guy come to the same conclusions of the whole crisis as I have for years. But I agree much more with your link of yesterday than today's link (I have some doubts about his views) I just think he guy is not on enough about internal NATO pressure put on the members to buy US fighter jets (the F-35) and other death instruments, and forced Germany (thx Ursula), Netherlands & Belgium to buy a cat in a bag for a fortune, thus torpedoing the Franco-German jet program a few years back (thx again Ursula  ). As the US will let us fly this satellite-controlled jetfighter if they don't us to. =============== But what's more shocking to me
  is that we can (unwillingly, of course) agree about something    Edited by Sean Trane - October 05 2023 at 08:32 |
|||
|
let's just stay above the moral melee
prefer the sink to the gutter keep our sand-castle virtues content to be a doer as well as a thinker, prefer lifting our pen rather than un-sheath our sword |
|||
|
|||
|
MikeEnRegalia
Special Collaborator
Honorary Collaborator Joined: April 22 2005 Location: Sweden Status: Online Points: 21596 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: October 05 2023 at 07:50 |
||
|
^ This crisis benefits the arms industry in many ways. One of them is to channel a lot of old, deprecated hardware to the Ukraine, or from the US to Europe (and then the Ukraine). The Russians promptly destroy it (they own the airspace in the area, so they will shoot down any F-16 as soon as it lifts off), and so a stream of junk (and dead Ukrainians, sadly) means an opportunity for arms manufacturers to get wealthier western states to buy more modern gear.
|
|||
|
|||
|
suitkees
Forum Senior Member 
Joined: July 19 2020 Location: France Status: Offline Points: 9050 |
Post Options
Thanks(1)
Quote Reply
Posted: October 05 2023 at 09:52 |
||
|
Interesting talk by John Mearsheimer. I read an article by him recently, published by Le Monde Diplomatique*, two months ago, but I couldn't agree with some of the premises of his positions. So, I did some research, because it is always interesting, not to say important, to know who is talking, from which standpoints and why... So, to give some more "food for thought" here are some more or less biased takes on his positions: First, two more analytical and documented/referenced articles: - The Russian Lobby in the USA (about halfway the article Mearsheimer gets mentioned) - Can a "realist" approach of the Ukranian conflict bring back peace ? (in French, sorry, but it is one of the most balanced critics I could find, so far) Then, a couple of more biased assesments of Mearsheimer's positions: - Financial Times: It makes no sense to blame the west for the Ukraine war, by Gideon Rachman, who - apparently - has not been exempt from critiques himself... - The Hill: America’s leading ‘realist’ keeps getting Russia wrong. And, apparently, his research got - partly - financed by a Putin approved Russian think tank (and this is coming from a conservative biased media outlet...). Don't know what to think about this. But the outlook seems to be rather grim, indeed, whatever our takes on it... * Le Monde Diplomatique is a French language monthly that publishes background articles coming from multiple international sources, and regularly publishing contradicatory positions one next to the other. Interestingly, they published Mearsheimer article with the banner "An analysis censored by the European media", which is probably "newspeak" for saying "unpublished as yet", because Mearsheimer's positions have been mentioned/quoted/published regularly before. |
|||
|
The razamataz is a pain in the bum |
|||
|
|||
|
Sean Trane
Special Collaborator
Prog Folk Joined: April 29 2004 Location: Heart of Europe Status: Offline Points: 20414 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: October 05 2023 at 12:12 |
||
I wish I had more time for Monde Diplomatique... Quality journalism ... something rare in these web days.
|
|||
|
let's just stay above the moral melee
prefer the sink to the gutter keep our sand-castle virtues content to be a doer as well as a thinker, prefer lifting our pen rather than un-sheath our sword |
|||
|
|||
|
omphaloskepsis
Forum Senior Member
Joined: October 19 2011 Location: Texas Status: Offline Points: 6800 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: October 05 2023 at 14:00 |
||
|
The Ukraine conflict isn't helping Germany. German economy from Best to Worse...
https://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/international-issues/germany-went-from-the-best-to-the-worst-performing-developed-economy/
|
|||
|
|||
|
MikeEnRegalia
Special Collaborator
Honorary Collaborator Joined: April 22 2005 Location: Sweden Status: Online Points: 21596 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: October 05 2023 at 15:31 |
||
Of course. But still, I am more interested in WHAT is being said than in WHO says it.
|
|||
|
|||
|
Atavachron
Special Collaborator
Honorary Collaborator Joined: September 30 2006 Location: Pearland Status: Offline Points: 65602 |
Post Options
Thanks(2)
Quote Reply
Posted: October 05 2023 at 19:54 |
||
|
Down with Authoritarians. Down with Fascists hiding behind "F r e e S p e e c h". Go to Hell ignorant, anti-Democratic a****les.
|
|||
|
"Too often we enjoy the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought." -- John F. Kennedy
|
|||
|
|||
|
Sean Trane
Special Collaborator
Prog Folk Joined: April 29 2004 Location: Heart of Europe Status: Offline Points: 20414 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: October 06 2023 at 00:26 |
||
mmmmhhh!!!.... Don't agree really Conspirationists (didn't say he was one) can say intelligent things for the wrong motives (did not say he does) Just as important to realize who this dude is than at least consider his PoV (which I like, because it fits what I've known of the situation since the USSR broke down, and 00/10's events in that post-soviet buffoon state). I will investigate his background ASAP Ukraine in NATO and EC >> not in my name, please!!! We've got enough to deal with Poland and Hungary being total jerks inside the EC about this situation (and previously). If either state wants to do a Prexit/Polexit or Hungarexit, fine with me: be my guest. I'll jump with joy. I can agree with the Poles suffering as much from the Russians than the Germans over centuries, but it's ridiculous (and bloated) to think Putin would be interested in invading their country, even if conducted these conspirationist religious zealots/extremists. Edited by Sean Trane - October 06 2023 at 00:28 |
|||
|
let's just stay above the moral melee
prefer the sink to the gutter keep our sand-castle virtues content to be a doer as well as a thinker, prefer lifting our pen rather than un-sheath our sword |
|||
|
|||
|
MikeEnRegalia
Special Collaborator
Honorary Collaborator Joined: April 22 2005 Location: Sweden Status: Online Points: 21596 |
Post Options
Thanks(2)
Quote Reply
Posted: October 06 2023 at 01:33 |
||
What a nothingburger. Please name these Fascists, otherwise the entire post ist just a brain fart. Edited by MikeEnRegalia - October 06 2023 at 02:13 |
|||
|
|||
|
progaardvark
Special Collaborator
Crossover/Symphonic/RPI Teams Joined: June 14 2007 Location: Sea of Peas Status: Offline Points: 52608 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: October 06 2023 at 07:42 |
||
I'm not sure I entirely agree. Russia has historically wanted a buffer on its western borders, either by taking it themselves or installing a "friendlier" leader in those countries bordering it on the west. Russia likes to have geographic choke points to defend itself and there really isn't a good one in the area of Belarus and Poland being a generally flat plain, so they would rather have a buffer. I know this way of thinking is antiquated, but Russia has had to defend itself for many centuries from invaders: Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth in 1605, Sweden in 1707, France in 1812, and Germany in 1914 and 1941.
|
|||
|
----------
i'm shopping for a new oil-cured sinus bag that's a happy bag of lettuce this car smells like cartilage nothing beats a good video about fractions |
|||
|
|||
|
moshkito
Forum Senior Member
Joined: January 04 2007 Location: Grok City Status: Offline Points: 18064 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: October 06 2023 at 08:37 |
||
Hi, It's not only antiquated, it is also bizarre, considering how modern warfare works. That kind of distance and plain field is a good deal better for all the aerial assaults and bombs, that do not have to be next to the location at all. Thus anyone thinking that a mass of land is helpful to this or that is a weird perception, and I think it might just be an old thought kinda seeping through. In fact, a large empty field is much more attractive, though nowadays, just like old days, it exposes you all the way. Time waste crossing it? Russia's invasion is not about war. It's about getting more for their economy and steal as much as possible. It's been like that for many centuries for them. In the end, this is likely to end in an Ukraine loss since they do not have the economy or the ability to manufacture and improve their supplies as the Russians continue to do, even if slower ... a war of attrition is favorable to the Russians, even with all the threats. Any serious nuclear threat or bomb is probably going to end the war in favor of Ukraine over night, and maybe that is the best solution regardless of how awful the end result would be for everyone, not to mention a whole section of a country that is not useful for hundreds of years because of the nuclear fall out. Either way ... the result is not going to be good I don't think. It never is in Africa or the Middle East, and I'm not sure it is going to be much better anywhere else. I was friends with a family from Lithuania, and Irene, always said that the real evil was with the Russians, but that might have been because Russia really messed up with Lithuania and still messes in their politics. But she was no fan of the Germans and what they did, which she felt the folks in between were probably the next victims!
Edited by moshkito - October 06 2023 at 08:38 |
|||
|
Music is not just for listening ... it is for LIVING ... you got to feel it to know what's it about! Not being told!
www.pedrosena.com |
|||
|
|||
|
Sean Trane
Special Collaborator
Prog Folk Joined: April 29 2004 Location: Heart of Europe Status: Offline Points: 20414 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: October 06 2023 at 08:42 |
||
|
|||
|
let's just stay above the moral melee
prefer the sink to the gutter keep our sand-castle virtues content to be a doer as well as a thinker, prefer lifting our pen rather than un-sheath our sword |
|||
|
|||
|
Sean Trane
Special Collaborator
Prog Folk Joined: April 29 2004 Location: Heart of Europe Status: Offline Points: 20414 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: October 06 2023 at 08:53 |
||
|
The map above is taken from Wikipedia's Ukraine page, so it's not a pro-russia deformation map. What Putin really wants are the lands given by the USSR to its Ukraine Republic (the ones mainly populated by Russian-descent (therefore in blue). That's where 99% of the fighting is done. As you can see, he's barely touched the lands in Yellow, if only to pressure Kiev (which Russia's first historical capital, if you remember well), despite being given to Ukraine to those "Liittle-Russians" for centuries by the Tsars. As for buffer state, it's clear that Belarus is it. No need to go to Poland. Poland is grossly overestimating its worth. As you can also see, Crimea was Russian (as were cities on the Black Sea like Odessa - constructed by the Tsar in the XIXth C) and remember that Krutchev was Ukrainian.
Edited by Sean Trane - October 06 2023 at 08:56 |
|||
|
let's just stay above the moral melee
prefer the sink to the gutter keep our sand-castle virtues content to be a doer as well as a thinker, prefer lifting our pen rather than un-sheath our sword |
|||
|
|||
|
suitkees
Forum Senior Member
Joined: July 19 2020 Location: France Status: Offline Points: 9050 |
Post Options
Thanks(2)
Quote Reply
Posted: October 06 2023 at 10:11 |
||
|
^ I'm not sure what your point is other than illustrating Ukraine's territorial evolution in history. I hope you don't want to legitimize some of Russia's recent annexations, with this... If that is the case, than we could also legitimize that Belgium should be Spanish (or Dutch, if we would go back to the 17 Provinces...). The last internationally recognized borders (and that includes a recognition by Russia!) date from 1991. In my opinion these are the only borders that should be taken into account in the current international and diplomatic considerations, especially to avoid all kind of so-called historic considerations that everyone can adapt to his or her own liking since the nation-states are a rather recent phenomenon anyway. Ukraine's current borders have been defined in 1991.
|
|||
|
The razamataz is a pain in the bum |
|||
|
|||
|
Atavachron
Special Collaborator
Honorary Collaborator Joined: September 30 2006 Location: Pearland Status: Offline Points: 65602 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: October 06 2023 at 11:31 |
||
Sure, you bet it was, a big brain fart. Why-- Did I hurt some feelings? Well that's free speech for ya. |
|||
|
"Too often we enjoy the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought." -- John F. Kennedy
|
|||
|
|||
|
moshkito
Forum Senior Member
Joined: January 04 2007 Location: Grok City Status: Offline Points: 18064 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
Quote Reply
Posted: October 06 2023 at 12:38 |
||
Hi, European history is a mess in these things. Essentially (for example) Spain would be 2 or 3 countries were it not for the nasty governments for many years and their "control" ... which is still happening, with Madrid continuously punishing Barcelona (soccer) for things the Madrid folks have done for hundreds of years! It's just pathetic, and I hope that Madrid gets its due one of these days, and loses a third of the country, which should have been apart already were it not for Madridistas and their guns, not to mention a dictator making sure no one steps out of line including artists that were massacred! France would likely be 2 or 3 countries, if they had not been able to control the folks in Brittany. And even today, folks like Alan Stivell still fight for their rights which were taken away from them at least 200 years ago. Italy could have been another issue ... when you consider their differences (north and south) and the cultural issues involved, it is a weird miracle that they managed to stick together, which suggests that there was/were a lot of guns controlling everything and making sure that any small insurrection did not make it past GO and collect their $200. The rest of Europe is worse ... when you consider what happened to many of the countries.
|
|||
|
Music is not just for listening ... it is for LIVING ... you got to feel it to know what's it about! Not being told!
www.pedrosena.com |
|||
|
|||
|
MikeEnRegalia
Special Collaborator
Honorary Collaborator Joined: April 22 2005 Location: Sweden Status: Online Points: 21596 |
Post Options
Thanks(1)
Quote Reply
Posted: October 06 2023 at 15:37 |
||
I'm just saying that your post was entirely meaningless. I can also say that I'm against fascists. Doesn't mean anything until I also disclose who I think these fascists are. How you read hurt feelings into any of this is anybody's guess. Well, I wish you all the best in your fight against the fascists, if in fact they truly are fascists.
|
|||
|
|||
|
Atavachron
Special Collaborator
Honorary Collaborator Joined: September 30 2006 Location: Pearland Status: Offline Points: 65602 |
Post Options
Thanks(1)
Quote Reply
Posted: October 06 2023 at 16:02 |
||
|
^ Thanks. Hope your country never elects a disturbed sociopathic traitor like the U.S. did. |
|||
|
"Too often we enjoy the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought." -- John F. Kennedy
|
|||
|
|||
|
MikeEnRegalia
Special Collaborator
Honorary Collaborator Joined: April 22 2005 Location: Sweden Status: Online Points: 21596 |
Post Options
Thanks(2)
Quote Reply
Posted: October 06 2023 at 16:06 |
||
|
^ Biden? I think Trudeau is worse or at least as bad, as are Macron and Scholz.
Edited by MikeEnRegalia - October 06 2023 at 16:06 |
|||
|
|||
|
Post Reply
|
Page 123 16> |
| Forum Jump | Forum Permissions You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot create polls in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum |
Topic Options
MikeEnRegalia wrote: