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manofmystery View Drop Down
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 19 2012 at 14:48
Here's a nice, meaty documentary explaining what's actually happening with US foreign policy:


Time always wins.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 20 2012 at 15:05

For those posters here that never grasped the difference between capitalism and our current system or who want to paint our current system as capitalism in order to confuse the first group:



Time always wins.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 20 2012 at 16:00
Nice one, MoM.  It should be shown at all Occupy rallies.  
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 20 2012 at 16:07
Agreed, most people don't realize that we actually have corporatism in the States not capitalism. 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 20 2012 at 16:10
Second one is an oldie but goodie (for me anyway). I'm about halfway through the first and so far it's very insightful. A lot more people need to see both of them.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 20 2012 at 16:43
Originally posted by manofmystery manofmystery wrote:

For those posters here that never grasped the difference between capitalism and our current system or who want to paint our current system as capitalism in order to confuse the first group:
 

-Starts with an opinion backed by no facts. Not that it can't be defended, but starting with a bold statement and backing it with no facts whatsoever does not an effective proposition make.
-Point 1: Well, duh. Everyone who has taken high-school economics should know that. Then again, we have an entire political system based on screwing that up, but that is neither here nor there.
-Point 2: That's only correct following Chicago economics. It's wrong because people are not rational. In theory, David Koch (has a chemical engineering degree from MIT) should produce 100,000 times as much as me. Somehow, I doubt he could replace the four engineers in our department (when I worked for him). We see CEOs earn tens of millions of dollars despite being ineffectual because they are shielded from the market, which should not be possible in a rationalist economic model.
-Point 3: My head may implode. He first suggests that the market wasn't totally free, so capitalism wasn't to blame. This is equivalent to saying that the dam didn't break because of the water because some of the water went over the dam. Typical response from a rationalist economist, and completely silly. He's absolutely right that government policy really screwed the pooch (I still don't understand how people defend subsidizing mortgages with a longer life than the asset). However, rational people would never have taken the risks which occurred even in the presence of government intervention. His laying of blame is moot: the economic model on which he bases his response suggests that the crisis could not have happened at all, which makes it pretty useless for analyzing the cause of the crisis.

*Sigh*. Ideologues.

Hail Eris!
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 20 2012 at 18:41
Originally posted by Gamemako Gamemako wrote:

Originally posted by manofmystery manofmystery wrote:

For those posters here that never grasped the difference between capitalism and our current system or who want to paint our current system as capitalism in order to confuse the first group:
 

-Starts with an opinion backed by no facts. Not that it can't be defended, but starting with a bold statement and backing it with no facts whatsoever does not an effective proposition make.
-Point 1: Well, duh. Everyone who has taken high-school economics should know that. Then again, we have an entire political system based on screwing that up, but that is neither here nor there.
-Point 2: That's only correct following Chicago economics. It's wrong because people are not rational. In theory, David Koch (has a chemical engineering degree from MIT) should produce 100,000 times as much as me. Somehow, I doubt he could replace the four engineers in our department (when I worked for him). We see CEOs earn tens of millions of dollars despite being ineffectual because they are shielded from the market, which should not be possible in a rationalist economic model.
-Point 3: My head may implode. He first suggests that the market wasn't totally free, so capitalism wasn't to blame. This is equivalent to saying that the dam didn't break because of the water because some of the water went over the dam. Typical response from a rationalist economist, and completely silly. He's absolutely right that government policy really screwed the pooch (I still don't understand how people defend subsidizing mortgages with a longer life than the asset). However, rational people would never have taken the risks which occurred even in the presence of government intervention. His laying of blame is moot: the economic model on which he bases his response suggests that the crisis could not have happened at all, which makes it pretty useless for analyzing the cause of the crisis.

*Sigh*. Ideologues.


I remember being made to watch a Milton Friedman educational video in middle school, yes public education, and it smelled of fantasy ideology not any like the reality of my life at the time.  I basically thought "this guy is a real out of touch a-hole".  It wasn't an economics class of course, I think it was part of social studies or something like that.


Edited by Slartibartfast - January 20 2012 at 18:42
Released date are often when it it impacted you but recorded dates are when it really happened...

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Equality 7-2521 View Drop Down
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 21 2012 at 08:20
Originally posted by Gamemako Gamemako wrote:

Originally posted by manofmystery manofmystery wrote:

For those posters here that never grasped the difference between capitalism and our current system or who want to paint our current system as capitalism in order to confuse the first group:
 

-Starts with an opinion backed by no facts. Not that it can't be defended, but starting with a bold statement and backing it with no facts whatsoever does not an effective proposition make.
-Point 1: Well, duh. Everyone who has taken high-school economics should know that. Then again, we have an entire political system based on screwing that up, but that is neither here nor there.
-Point 2: That's only correct following Chicago economics. It's wrong because people are not rational. In theory, David Koch (has a chemical engineering degree from MIT) should produce 100,000 times as much as me. Somehow, I doubt he could replace the four engineers in our department (when I worked for him). We see CEOs earn tens of millions of dollars despite being ineffectual because they are shielded from the market, which should not be possible in a rationalist economic model.
-Point 3: My head may implode. He first suggests that the market wasn't totally free, so capitalism wasn't to blame. This is equivalent to saying that the dam didn't break because of the water because some of the water went over the dam. Typical response from a rationalist economist, and completely silly. He's absolutely right that government policy really screwed the pooch (I still don't understand how people defend subsidizing mortgages with a longer life than the asset). However, rational people would never have taken the risks which occurred even in the presence of government intervention. His laying of blame is moot: the economic model on which he bases his response suggests that the crisis could not have happened at all, which makes it pretty useless for analyzing the cause of the crisis.

*Sigh*. Ideologues.



It's a 3:30 video. He's not submitting this to the American Economic Review. Know the audience when you make a video.

-Point 1: Yeah  I can't disagree with you there.

-Point 2: I hear a lot of people throw that around, but I've never really seen much showing people to be irrational that doesn't suffer from a critical error in recognizing subjective evaluations. I don't necessarily disagree about your point though, but I think it points to government interference itself rather than a failure of a rather fundamental assumption of most modern economic / game theoretic thought.

-Point 3: To me it's like saying that Nuclear Power fails because a nuclear plant built without cooling rods leads to disaster. It's hard to indite capitalism when capitalism didn't even exist to cause the problem. Entrepreneurs making large systematic errors and companies falling into moral hazards have been quite common place and are well explained in the boom part of the business cycle. I know nothing about this guy so I'm not defending his model of the situation of course.
"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 21 2012 at 09:16
That guy makes some stupid oversimplifications...
 
#3. The 2008 crisis was caused by out of control derivatives and excessive speculation. One could argue that this was an experiment that had to happen and fail. We can argue that more regulation would have prevented it or that too much regulation allowed it to grow too much and both have grains of truth. But with the way our economic system is built, this was going to be tried. NOW, I think it is much more reasonable to put some reasonable limits on the process, because we have hard evidence that this kind of vapor game is harmful to society at large. It's not just a theory anymore.
You are quite a fine person, and I am very fond of you. But you are only quite a little fellow, in a wide world, after all.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 21 2012 at 10:36
Originally posted by Equality 7-2521 Equality 7-2521 wrote:

It's a 3:30 video. He's not submitting this to the American Economic Review. Know the audience when you make a video.


Still, you'd hope he'd at least drop some kind of fact to help his cause.

Originally posted by Equality 7-2521 Equality 7-2521 wrote:

-Point 2: I hear a lot of people throw that around, but I've never really seen much showing people to be irrational that doesn't suffer from a critical error in recognizing subjective evaluations. I don't necessarily disagree about your point though, but I think it points to government interference itself rather than a failure of a rather fundamental assumption of most modern economic / game theoretic thought.


Classic example is that Americans (but not Chinese) would rather take nothing than take an unfair amount. That is clearly irrational, as the game is fixed so that you get nothing or something, and people will take nothing. There's also this funny experiment where people were convinced to value $20 at $40, where bidding should have stopped at a number lower than $20 due to an associated risk. Neither of these involve subjective valuation at all: a dollar is a dollar. They are purely errors in rational economic thought. There are quite a few gaping holes in the assumption of rationality, most notably the notion that the resources exist to make rational decisions. People use heuristics rather than calculations and are subject to horrendous emotional biases (some behavioral economists have found that economic decisions involve almost no directed processing but rather are almost exclusively emotional).

Originally posted by Equality 7-2521 Equality 7-2521 wrote:

-Point 3: To me it's like saying that Nuclear Power fails because a nuclear plant built without cooling rods leads to disaster. It's hard to indite capitalism when capitalism didn't even exist to cause the problem. Entrepreneurs making large systematic errors and companies falling into moral hazards have been quite common place and are well explained in the boom part of the business cycle. I know nothing about this guy so I'm not defending his model of the situation of course.


Again, government intervention certainly didn't help, but someone at JPMorgan thought repackaging these just-plain-stupid loans in this manner was a good idea. No matter how you slice it, someone (or rather, a lot of someones) made a critical economic decision that was so mind-bogglingly stupid that it makes my head spin. People believed, out of some abundance of insanity, that the housing bubble would continue to expand, like the tulip bubble would never burst. Rational markets should correct this, perfectly determining the risk and proper market exposure to the risks, but they do not. Instead, it's some manager's "gut feeling" turning the gears. It's always funny to see the stock market go up and down in huge swings, as though the net value of all companies was increasing or decreasing by 5% per day.


Edited by Gamemako - January 21 2012 at 10:37
Hail Eris!
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 22 2012 at 13:28
Originally posted by Gamemako Gamemako wrote:

Still, you'd hope he'd at least drop some kind of fact to help his cause.


I'm sure you've made pitches like this in your professional career. You drop the conclusion to whet the pallet and hopefully the people watching starting doing research and read the papers published by yourself or others in the field.

Originally posted by Gamemako Gamemako wrote:



Classic example is that Americans (but not Chinese) would rather take nothing than take an unfair amount. That is clearly irrational, as the game is fixed so that you get nothing or something, and people will take nothing. There's also this funny experiment where people were convinced to value $20 at $40, where bidding should have stopped at a number lower than $20 due to an associated risk. Neither of these involve subjective valuation at all: a dollar is a dollar. They are purely errors in rational economic thought. There are quite a few gaping holes in the assumption of rationality, most notably the notion that the resources exist to make rational decisions. People use heuristics rather than calculations and are subject to horrendous emotional biases (some behavioral economists have found that economic decisions involve almost no directed processing but rather are almost exclusively emotional).


I'm familiar with the results, but I think they only point out our over reliance on monetary values when associating the rational label with behaviors. In particular the first example you reference makes perfect rational sense when you allow the subjective value of actions to me factored into the analysis.

Originally posted by Gamemako Gamemako wrote:



Again, government intervention certainly didn't help, but someone at JPMorgan thought repackaging these just-plain-stupid loans in this manner was a good idea. No matter how you slice it, someone (or rather, a lot of someones) made a critical economic decision that was so mind-bogglingly stupid that it makes my head spin. People believed, out of some abundance of insanity, that the housing bubble would continue to expand, like the tulip bubble would never burst. Rational markets should correct this, perfectly determining the risk and proper market exposure to the risks, but they do not. Instead, it's some manager's "gut feeling" turning the gears. It's always funny to see the stock market go up and down in huge swings, as though the net value of all companies was increasing or decreasing by 5% per day.


Again what I'm saying is that the Austrian Theory of the Business Cycle explains this quite well and is initially what attracted me to the Austrians. Mises essentially took the Ricardian analysis, which works pretty well despite being a bit narrow, and expanded to really account for this mass error effect.


Edited by Equality 7-2521 - January 23 2012 at 14:06
"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 23 2012 at 14:13
Originally posted by stonebeard stonebeard wrote:

http://www.reddit.com/r/occupywallstreet/comments/nbtp6/the_budget_explained_in_simple_english/c37vt0m

Counter-arguments to this kind of thing, guys? Seems to me like a lot of the sentiments here make some sense. For example, it would seem to follow that austerity measures benefit the upper class and put the burden on lower and middle class. Maybe just read through and off some libertarian/Austrian economist rebuttals if you wish.

If this Keynesian, Federal Reserve setup we have now is not a proper way toward economic prosperity, then what would the radical libertarian, even anarchist, suppose be the best way to have a robust economy with technological and cultural progress? 


I'm not even really sure what the argument the poster is trying to make. He seems to just be mocking the idea that inflation exists and/or thinking that accounting sheets can somehow solve fundamental problems of scarcity. I didn't read through all that many posts. Am I missing the poster you're referencing? I agree that a household budget analogy ignores certain key factors, but it's ultimately not useless. The responders seem to be missing the point that most austerity measures are actually insignificant.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 23 2012 at 14:23

Again, I'm just beginning to dip my toes into economics. Seeing a subset of folks pushing for 100% reserve banking or at least drastically increasing the reserve fraction. Curious what our peculiar little cohort here thinks of this subject.

You are quite a fine person, and I am very fond of you. But you are only quite a little fellow, in a wide world, after all.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 23 2012 at 14:53
I support the idea. I don't see a way of justifying an inherently fraudulent practice. 
"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 23 2012 at 15:14
My understanding is that if I deposit into a checking or passbook savings, with 100% reserve banking, the bank is obligated to have all of those funds on hand at all times. However, if I deposit into a certificate of deposit, they are only required to have the funds available at the time of the term of the certificate. They are then free to invest those funds and try to turn a profit using that capital.
 
While this all makes sense, why is it fraudulent to use my checking money but not to use my CD money? I know they are playing averages, having enough available for normal required cash flow, and investing the rest with the assumption that the more they have, the better chance for significant profit.
 
I'm learning.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 23 2012 at 15:32
'The Second Myth is that Capitalism generates an unfair distribution of mnmnmn I assume he says wealth' Myth nay I say and thrice nay.  Course it does. 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 23 2012 at 16:02
Originally posted by Negoba Negoba wrote:

My understanding is that if I deposit into a checking or passbook savings, with 100% reserve banking, the bank is obligated to have all of those funds on hand at all times. However, if I deposit into a certificate of deposit, they are only required to have the funds available at the time of the term of the certificate. They are then free to invest those funds and try to turn a profit using that capital.
 
While this all makes sense, why is it fraudulent to use my checking money but not to use my CD money? I know they are playing averages, having enough available for normal required cash flow, and investing the rest with the assumption that the more they have, the better chance for significant profit.
 
I'm learning.


It mostly just have to do with what you're agreeing to. Anyway though, in the latter case, they're investing your money. In the former case, they're investing money that doesn't exist. There's a difference between you giving your money for investing purposes and expecting a return, and you asking them to hold your money while you're not using it and them keeping 10% on hand while loaning out the other 90%. In actuality, the later amounts to the inventing of new money on a balance sheet.


"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 23 2012 at 16:02
Originally posted by akamaisondufromage akamaisondufromage wrote:

'The Second Myth is that Capitalism generates an unfair distribution of mnmnmn I assume he says wealth' Myth nay I say and thrice nay.  Course it does. 


Can you name a system that doesn't or present a cogent definition of "unfair"?
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 23 2012 at 16:12
Originally posted by Equality 7-2521 Equality 7-2521 wrote:


It mostly just have to do with what you're agreeing to. Anyway though, in the latter case, they're investing your money. In the former case, they're investing money that doesn't exist. There's a difference between you giving your money for investing purposes and expecting a return, and you asking them to hold your money while you're not using it and them keeping 10% on hand while loaning out the other 90%. In actuality, the later amounts to the inventing of new money on a balance sheet.


 
I've read that several times, and I understand how successive loans and fractional reserving places more "assets" on the books than was ever deposited.
 
But why is it any different for a CD and a checkbook?
 
It just seems like lying on your balance sheet if you don't account for both the input and output of real funds, regardless of what you told the depositer you were doing with the money.
You are quite a fine person, and I am very fond of you. But you are only quite a little fellow, in a wide world, after all.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: January 23 2012 at 16:17
Originally posted by Equality 7-2521 Equality 7-2521 wrote:

Originally posted by akamaisondufromage akamaisondufromage wrote:

'The Second Myth is that Capitalism generates an unfair distribution of mnmnmn I assume he says wealth' Myth nay I say and thrice nay.  Course it does. 


Can you name a system that doesn't or present a cogent definition of "unfair"?
 
I would argue that there is no "fair" distribution of wealth that is unequal. However, it is very functional and productive to selectively distribute wealth.
 
What constitutes "functional" and "productive" is of course the debate. I'm becoming more and more critical of the idea of personal property at all. Yet, having a safe and secure place to sleep at night is a very nice thing. And a place where I can put my food where the upperclassmen won't come steal it.
 
Think think think learn learn learn fun fun fun. Look ma no beers.
You are quite a fine person, and I am very fond of you. But you are only quite a little fellow, in a wide world, after all.
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