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Quo Vadis Ukraine?

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MikeEnRegalia View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote MikeEnRegalia Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 12 2023 at 01:26
Originally posted by omphaloskepsis omphaloskepsis wrote:

Just because Mike points out a truism... does not make Mike a morally corrupt individual.  The truth can be painful and abrasive.  Mike is a realist. 

Yes, you're absolutely right. Of course this doesn't mean that what I'm saying is correct! I am a realist (or as my ethics teacher at school always said: "Michael, you're a stoic!"), which means that I try to accept the facts as they are and handle the emotions/values separately. But I could still be (terribly) wrong on what actually is a fact and what isn't. So some of the things I accept as factual could actually be propaganda (lies), which is why I and everybody else needs discussions about these topics. If you go by mainstream media alone ("I support the current thing!"), you're most likely wrong on many things, regardless of whether you live in the West or in Russia, or in China or elsewhere. If you only go by some alternative sources, chances are you fall prey to counter-propaganda or just generally bullsh*t peddling conspiracy theorists (e.g. Qanon, Alex Jones, David Icke etc.).

I'm all for justice, liberty and compassion, those are key values for me. Sadly, we won't achieve them by pretending that our leaders put them above power and personal wealth. 


Edited by MikeEnRegalia - October 12 2023 at 01:45
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote snobb Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 12 2023 at 03:11
Originally posted by Lewian Lewian wrote:

Prof. Jeffrey Sachs: "I'm siding with Ukraine" - other than that, not a single word in the whole video about what the Ukrainians actually want and whether they'd prefer to fight and defend themselves rather than letting themselves be overrun by Russia, which apparently is Prof. Sachs's advice to avoid more deaths. Send this to Kyiv and ask the Ukrainians whether they'd be happy having this kind of "friend". 



and not only in Kyiv - those different from sofa-thinkers, who knows the situation better (i.i. not from both sides propaganda) understand , that Ukraine was targeted as "Westerners weak link", not because of Ukraine itself. putin's regime is testing, what is real "red line" (not Obama's pink dreams redline) - how much lazy pacifist West is ready to sacrifice to eurasian criminals just to avoid participation in a real war. it's a big question, if putin is ready for real world with the West, since he understands pretty well it would be the end for him, his regime and the russian empire hundreds years project in general. But at some point russian fuhrer found out that Westerners are ready to pay a lot just to avoid to be disturbed, to lose their comfortable life even partially(a thing, unbelievable for russian mentality).

So, putin is blackmailing Westerners, seeing how weak they are (to be such a weak in putin's (and generally in russian culture) book means you're loser of lowest grade. Than, such losers must be robbed and enslaved, that's the way russians behaved with them for ages, nothing changed in their collective mentality till now.

So - if not Ukraine, there could be someone else - pacifist non-NATO Sweden, demilitarized Japan, their regular enemies Poland + Baltics, you chose. If Ukraine will lose the war, it will show russian chunta that they can continue destroying Western civilization step by step

Edited by snobb - October 12 2023 at 03:12
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote MikeEnRegalia Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 12 2023 at 03:14
^ Please, can you take your bigotted warmongering some place else? It stinks. I can accept that somewhere buried in these hateful words there's your honest opinion, to which I'd say: Noted, thank you very much. Now please, present actual rational arguments.

Edited by MikeEnRegalia - October 12 2023 at 03:16
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote MikeEnRegalia Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 12 2023 at 03:18
Originally posted by snobb snobb wrote:

If Ukraine will lose the war

They have lost the war.  The West evidently never intended for them to win against Russia. The main purpose of the war, as US officials are on record stating, is to weaken Russia. They couldn't care less about Ukraine.

EDIT: Removed the Scott Ritter interview after I learned that he is a convicted sex offender. 


Edited by MikeEnRegalia - October 12 2023 at 07:20
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote omphaloskepsis Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 12 2023 at 04:35
Originally posted by MikeEnRegalia MikeEnRegalia wrote:

[QUOTE=snobb] If Ukraine will lose the war

They have lost the war.  The West evidently never intended for them to win against Russia. The main purpose of the war, as US officials are on record stating, is to weaken Russia. They couldn't care less about Ukraine.



 "Ukraine will fight Russia to the last person" doesn't sound like Senator Lindsey Graham cares about Ukrainian lives. 




Edited by omphaloskepsis - October 12 2023 at 04:36
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote snobb Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 12 2023 at 04:43
Originally posted by MikeEnRegalia MikeEnRegalia wrote:


       ...........They have lost the war..........



this is a straight citation from (most probably) your main information source - "Russia Today" TV channel :)


For sure, the open question is what means for Ukraine to win the war :

1. To return back the Eastern (Luhansk + Donetsk areas) and Southern (Kherson area & seaside) occupied territories

2. To return back ALL occupied territories (as below, plus Crimea) = it looks like the most well-balanced solution, accepted by all sides

3. To return back all occupied territories and continue towards russia motherland with a main target to initiate the dismantling of criminal chunta's regime and possible breakdown of russian empire to 7-12 independent (and predominantly non-russian) national states

Edited by snobb - October 12 2023 at 04:44
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote omphaloskepsis Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 12 2023 at 05:01
Originally posted by snobb snobb wrote:

Originally posted by MikeEnRegalia MikeEnRegalia wrote:


       ...........They have lost the war..........



this is a straight citation from (most probably) your main information source - "Russia Today" TV channel :)


For sure, the open question is what means for Ukraine to win the war :

1. To return back the Eastern (Luhansk + Donetsk areas) and Southern (Kherson area & seaside) occupied territories

2. To return back ALL occupied territories (as below, plus Crimea) = it looks like the most well-balanced solution, accepted by all sides

3. To return back all occupied territories and continue towards russia motherland with a main target to initiate the dismantling of criminal chunta's regime and possible breakdown of russian empire to 7-12 independent (and predominantly non-russian) national states


If you want to know Mike's main source...ask him. 

Your points are the ultimate American victory.  If Ukraine wins, Ukraine will have to pay back all the loans America made to Ukraine.  In the early 2000s, Russia finished paying off the loans to America that America loaned Russia during WW II.  

What matters to the majority of the Ukrainian people?  Most Ukrainian people would rather live and work.  They care more for their family's lives than if their leaders are Russian or Ukrainian.  Long, happy lives would be what a Ukraine victory looks like to the Ukraine people.   
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote progaardvark Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 12 2023 at 05:16
Seriously, Scott Ritter?? Do you not do research on the background of the people you are using to forward your argument?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote snobb Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 12 2023 at 05:27
Originally posted by omphaloskepsis omphaloskepsis wrote:

[QUOTE=snobb]


If you want to know Mike's main source...ask him. 

Your points are the ultimate American victory.  If Ukraine wins, Ukraine will have to pay back all the loans America made to Ukraine.  In the early 2000s, Russia finished paying off the loans to America that America loaned Russia during WW II.  

What matters to the majority of the Ukrainian people?  Most Ukrainian people would rather live and work.  They care more for their family's lives than if their leaders are Russian or Ukrainian.  Long, happy lives would be what a Ukraine victory looks like to the Ukraine people.   


^ they say, sometimes to look from the long distance is good, than you see the whole picture :)

so, you see pretty well some Western politicians intentions, I agree here


I see from much shorter distance (abt. 25 miles from the border of great russian empire). I see more details than :)

From the very first days of the russian aggression on Ukraine I started working in Ukrainian refugees registration centers (after my daytime work). I saw face to face hundreds of people, registering each of them, listening many stories from the first lips. Mostly women with children and old people. They told me with fear in their eyes about raped sisters, killed friends and parents, burned houses. russian army behaved in occupied territories right same way as Nazis during WWII.

Later, for months, already as daytime work I worked with hundreds of Ukrainians files, especially difficult cases. Speaking with people, collecting evidences of russian brutality among others.

From my short distance experience, I can say you one thing - Ukrainians will never agree to live under russian occupation. If they will receive Western ammunition and guns - they will win faster, if not - they fight with the knifes, but after what they survived now they will never be barbarian's slaves again

Edited by snobb - October 12 2023 at 07:05
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote omphaloskepsis Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 12 2023 at 05:38
Snobb says:

^ they say, sometimes to look from the long distance is good, than you see the whole picture :)

so, you see pretty well some Western politicians intentions, I agree here


I see from much shorter distance (abt. 25 miles from the border of great russian empire). I see more details than :)

From the very first days of the russian aggression on Ukraine I started working in Ukrainian refugees registration centers (after my daytime work). I saw face to face hundreds of people, registering each of them, listening many stories from the first lips. Mostly women with children and old people. They told me with fear in their eyes about raped sisters, killed friends and parents, burned houses. russian army behaved in occupied territories right same way as Nazis during WWII.

Later, for months, already as daytime work (as a Chief officer in headquarter of State Migration Dept) I worked with hundreds of Ukrainians files, especially difficult cases. Speaking with people, collecting evidences of russian brutality among others.

From my short distance experience, I can say you one thing - Ukrainians will never agree to live under russian occupation. If they will receive Western ammunition and guns - they will win faster, if not - they fight with the knifes, but after what they survived now they will never barbarian's slaves again[/QUOTE]

 

I disagree with your prediction.  I predict: If the West pulls support Ukraine will negotiate a settlement with Russia within six months.  Russia will acquire large swaths of territory and Ukraine will never join NATO.

If your statements are based on reality, then what you say will happen.  If my statements are based on reality, then my predictions will come to pass.  

Furthermore, I predict that after the war, the Russian-controlled parts of Ukraine will prosper more than the non-Russian parts. Since 2021, Russia's economy went from 11th in the world to 6th.  Within two years, Russia's economy will pass Japan's for 5th.  Meanwhile, Germany's economic growth reversed.  Without cheap Russian energy, the German industrial juggernaut is shrinking. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MikeEnRegalia Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 12 2023 at 05:39
Originally posted by progaardvark progaardvark wrote:

Seriously, Scott Ritter?? Do you not do research on the background of the people you are using to forward your argument?

Didn't know about his conviction for sex offenses. But no, when I hear someone commenting on these matters, I don't immediately scramble to "background check" them on the internet, instead I first listen to WHAT they're saying. In this case it seems like Ritter is attempting to exploit the current situation by stating largely the same thing as other, proper experts like Mearsheimer and Sachs, adding bullsh*t claims on top. 


Edited by MikeEnRegalia - October 12 2023 at 07:32
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote snobb Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 12 2023 at 05:56
Originally posted by omphaloskepsis omphaloskepsis wrote:



Furthermore, I predict that after the war, the Russian-controlled parts of Ukraine will prosper more than the non-Russian parts. Since 2021, Russia's economy went from 11th in the world to 6th.  Within two years, Russia's economy will pass Japan's for 5th.  Meanwhile, Germany's economic growth reversed.  Without cheap Russian energy, the German industrial juggernaut is shrinking. 



This sounds like the story from parallel world, then again - probably you know something I don't know :)

You can find enough info how todays russian controlled Ukraine territories looks like (Luhansk-Donetsk area)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote omphaloskepsis Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 12 2023 at 06:24
Originally posted by snobb snobb wrote:

Originally posted by omphaloskepsis omphaloskepsis wrote:



Furthermore, I predict that after the war, the Russian-controlled parts of Ukraine will prosper more than the non-Russian parts. Since 2021, Russia's economy went from 11th in the world to 6th.  Within two years, Russia's economy will pass Japan's for 5th.  Meanwhile, Germany's economic growth reversed.  Without cheap Russian energy, the German industrial juggernaut is shrinking. 



This sounds like the story from parallel world, then again - probably you know something I don't know :)

You can find enough info how todays russian controlled Ukraine territories looks like (Luhansk-Donetsk area)

Luhansk-Donetsk are on the current front line.  I could show you videos of Saint Petersburg to show you how Russians live.  I said, "after the war" not as Ukraine bombs the Luhansk-Donetsk oblasts. 

As I type, American/Israel fighter jets are carpet bombing the Gaza Strip.  A piece of land surrounded by a wall and sea that's just 25 miles long and 6 miles wide...with over two million people.  The Palestinians are begging, " We are not Hamas...we are Palestinians!" 

An Israeli official is lobbying to Nuke The Gaza Strip.   Senator Lindsay Graham said, "Level the place."   My point?  Sure, Russia strikes military targets in Kiev and Kharkiv, but they don't bomb the cities indiscriminately.    

According to Western politicians...it's OK when Israel indiscriminately bomb civilians.

https://www.commondreams.org/news/lindsey-graham

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/israeli-official-calls-for-doomsday-nuclear-missile-option/ar-AA1hZRM6
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote snobb Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 12 2023 at 06:33
Originally posted by omphaloskepsis omphaloskepsis wrote:

[QUOTE=snobb] [QUOTE=omphaloskepsis]

<span style="font-size: medium;">Luhansk-Donetsk are on the current front line.  I could show you videos of Saint Petersburg to show you how Russians live.  I said, "after the war" not as Ukraine bombs the </span><span style="font-size: medium;">Luhansk-Donetsk</span><span style="font-size: medium;"> oblasts. </span>
<span style="font-size: medium;">



thanks, I know russia pretty well - have been there many times, from St. Petersburg to Moscow, to Briansk, to Irkutsk, Ural area, etc. (and yes - I speak russian , native level:))

St. Petersburg is most-non-russian city there, build by German-origin tsar Peter the Great and Italian architects, russians never felt comfortable there, for generations
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote snobb Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 12 2023 at 06:37
Originally posted by omphaloskepsis omphaloskepsis wrote:



 My point?  Sure, Russia strikes military targets in Kiev and Kharkiv, but they don't bomb the cities indiscriminately. 



the reason is they simply have no enough rockets for that, Ukraine is too large (by territory - the largest European country)

Edited by snobb - October 12 2023 at 06:55
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Lewian Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 12 2023 at 07:37
Originally posted by omphaloskepsis omphaloskepsis wrote:


If your statements are based on reality, then what you say will happen.  If my statements are based on reality, then my predictions will come to pass.  

That is logically not true. What happens in the future is not the reality of today. Many statements you make (like what the Ukrainians want, I wonder on what opinion research it is based what you claimed there, and actually the whole issue whether the responsibility for the current situation is more on the American or on the Russian side) have no implication whatsoever on your predictions, so even if your predictions turn out true, this has no implications on the "reality" of these statements. And of course you are aware that one can make correct conclusions from false premises. Also one can get almost everything right but still due to one detail or even a random event, predictions can turn out wrong. Most of your predictions regard military expertise. You may be right there and I wouldn't bet against most of them (neither would I bet against the opposite, I'm just not an expert in warfare), but they have no implications on "the reality" of at least 80% of what is discussed here.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote moshkito Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 12 2023 at 07:51
Originally posted by omphaloskepsis omphaloskepsis wrote:

...
Meanwhile, Germany's economic growth reversed.  Without cheap Russian energy, the German industrial juggernaut is shrinking. 

Hi,

Germany is suffering from the same malady that is covering the USA. The greater need for greed and the rich getting richer and everyone else ... who cares! They are abusing their greed, just like it is happening in the USA. It won't stop with our tongues wagging either! But, in this country where you can vote, there are too many that don't care, and allow "religious dictators" to get elected. In a country that SUPPOSEDLY created a church/state separation on purpose because they saw a lot of these issues all over the world ... we still don't give a damn!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Prog-jester Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 12 2023 at 08:01
didn't think I would return to this thread but Scott Ritter???

Mike - just stop, it's beyond embarassing at this point. I kinda feel sorry for you (despite you never addressing yoir unhinged pro-russian talking points I debunked with facts on pages 5 and 6)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MikeEnRegalia Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 12 2023 at 08:09
^ I don't think you're feeling sorry for me Clown

This is the only thing you wrote on page 5. Frankly, I don't see any factual debunking I could address.

Originally posted by Prog-jester Prog-jester wrote:

Jeez bandera nazis crimea referendum us maidan coup...the irony of reading russian propaganda bingo on a progressive (sic) music forum. Thankfully from the few users only.
I guess having an actual citizen of Ukraine telling you how it really is/was won't stop certain forum members from clinging to delusional stuff they chose to believe in. Probably life is easier that way - the country you never heard of before is all bad, therefore they all deserve to be wiped out by russians (who are also bad BUT YOU KNOW WHAT USA BAD ALSO!!1). Ridiculous and a little heartbreaking - I truly thought most prog fans are, well, progressive. Apparently not.

Well, you guys enjoy your little qanon cult, but don't be surprised to find a russian in your home soon, telling you he owns it now because nato biolabs something something nazis



Edited by MikeEnRegalia - October 12 2023 at 08:12
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Prog-jester Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 12 2023 at 08:12
I do! You're almost 50 and you'll still have to fight against russia and Iran in WWIII next year...
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