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Quo Vadis Ukraine? |
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Lewian 
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Joined: August 09 2015 Location: Italy Status: Offline Points: 15151 |
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 Posted: October 09 2023 at 15:21 |
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The Wikipedia page, which supposedly has the full text, mentions no such thing (only a "special status" with temporary local self-governance).
Edited by Lewian - October 09 2023 at 15:26 |
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omphaloskepsis
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Joined: October 19 2011 Location: Texas Status: Online Points: 6802 |
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Posted: October 09 2023 at 15:39 |
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Merkel admits Minsk Agreement was meant to buy time to build Ukraine's military. https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/12/22/ffci-d22.pdf
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MikeEnRegalia
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Honorary Collaborator Joined: April 22 2005 Location: Sweden Status: Offline Points: 21596 |
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Posted: October 09 2023 at 15:39 |
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^^ I wouldn't trust Wikipedia to be correct on any important political topics. However, in this case it is fairly correct. "Interim" would be a better word than "temporary" - the oblasts were meant to achieve local independence from the Ukrainian government as a first step towards (maybe) true independence. Does not matter at all now of course, since a) Ukraine never took any steps toward that goal and b) Putin simply took those territories and declared them independent. Which, I feel I have to emphasise since people are deliberately trying to misunderstand me, is just a fact (it just is) and not something I approve of.
Edited by MikeEnRegalia - October 09 2023 at 15:40 |
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Atavachron
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Honorary Collaborator Joined: September 30 2006 Location: Pearland Status: Offline Points: 65606 |
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Posted: October 09 2023 at 15:40 |
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Tempting, but I wouldn't know where to start. The nuances of "EU Politics" aside, unless you are a professional Peace Negotiator with a staggeringly firm grasp of history, your position is increasingly untenable. You said "Violence is never the answer" ? Tell that to a family protecting their home from criminals & terrorists and no help from police or soldiers. And there you are, in your little home in Scandanavia talking about what others should do and how they should handle themselves. It's a joke. Edited by Atavachron - October 09 2023 at 20:16 |
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"Too often we enjoy the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought." -- John F. Kennedy
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MikeEnRegalia
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Honorary Collaborator Joined: April 22 2005 Location: Sweden Status: Offline Points: 21596 |
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Posted: October 09 2023 at 15:49 |
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Yes, it's sad - there are other revealing statements in there as well: "Now, Merkel confirms that NATO wanted war from the start
but needed time to prepare militarily—an assessment WSWS has
long held" NATO had decided to wage this war long before Putin invaded Ukraine in 2022. It's obvious, it makes sense economically and strategically, when seen from the inhuman perspective of our leaders.
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Lewian
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Joined: August 09 2015 Location: Italy Status: Offline Points: 15151 |
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Posted: October 09 2023 at 15:55 |
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So what? Agreement or not, Ukraine had (and has) an aggressive neighbour to deal with, and was according to Merkel at the time not properly able to defend itself. There was nothing in the agreement that would stop Ukraine from doing this.
Merkel has said no such thing; surely the cited interview passage didn't say this.
Edited by Lewian - October 09 2023 at 16:04 |
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MikeEnRegalia
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Honorary Collaborator Joined: April 22 2005 Location: Sweden Status: Offline Points: 21596 |
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Posted: October 09 2023 at 16:01 |
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Ok, so unless I have some credentials as a professional peace negotiator, I'm not qualified to talk about politics? That's the "stay in your lane" argument, which is ridiculous. Think about where that would lead if people stopped thinking or speaking about matters they weren't trained in. "Leave it to the doctors", "leave it to the politicians", "leave it to the ..." ... this is how fascism takes hold and totalitarian regimes get established.
I was talking about Geopolitics, where history shows that violence usually makes matters worse (because it leads to more violence through retaliation). Sure, you can always construct situations where things have gone so wrong that only violence remains as an option (to escape death, or worse). In the example you gave, it is not obvious that violence would help. Say that this family gets an illegal gun to protect themselves - are they then safe? Or is the problem in that case that the country they live in is a failed state? There is no good solution in that scenario. BTW: I am not TELLING anyone what to do. Check my previous posts here and elsewhere and show me a single line where I judged any Ukrainian for using violence against the Russian invaders. You won't find any.
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omphaloskepsis
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Joined: October 19 2011 Location: Texas Status: Online Points: 6802 |
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Posted: October 09 2023 at 16:06 |
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Yeah! NATO/Merkel/USA tricked Russia again! Fool Russia once, shame on NATO. Fool Russia twice...Shame on Russia. Minsk 1...Minsk 2 NATO tricked you twice, Russia! Shame on you. Edited by omphaloskepsis - October 09 2023 at 16:11 |
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MikeEnRegalia
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Honorary Collaborator Joined: April 22 2005 Location: Sweden Status: Offline Points: 21596 |
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Posted: October 09 2023 at 16:07 |
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You're moving the goalpost. The Minsk 2 agreement was given as an example of the West trying to deceive Russia, showing that historically it is not correct to say that Russia has generally been untrustworthy while NATO/Ukraine always kept their promises. You can say "so what", that's your prerogative, but you should also acknowledge that it was an agreement entered in bad faith.
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MikeEnRegalia
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Posted: October 09 2023 at 16:14 |
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Sure, it's a biased comment from the "World Socialist Web Site" article ... not exactly a neutral source (I'm not a socialist by any stretch of the imagination, btw). The article also contains the actual quote: “The
2014 Minsk agreement was an attempt to give Ukraine time,”
Merkel told the weekly Die Zeit. “It also used this time to
become stronger, as you can see today.” There are other pieces of information which, all taken together, suggest that the war was probably planned (or at least well anticipated) by NATO as well as Russia. Quite a bit of game theory in there as well probably ("they knew that the other side knew that they knew ...").
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Lewian
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Joined: August 09 2015 Location: Italy Status: Offline Points: 15151 |
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Posted: October 09 2023 at 16:16 |
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^^ You are a proponent of "realism" in international relations, aren't you? So you will be well aware that such agreements are generally signed by parties that have their own interest in mind, and will be worded in such a way that the letters themselves allow them some room to do what they think is necessary to do. Same for Russia of course. This is not "bad faith", this is how these things work. Despite making a noise about this later, Russia shouldn't have been surprised by this, and in all likelihood they weren't (or just positively surprised by Merkel later saying something that they could use). Therefore ^^^ neither were they "tricked" or "fooled". Nothing of what Merkel said testifies that Ukraine or NATO didn't have the intention to honour the agreement.
Edited by Lewian - October 09 2023 at 16:17 |
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Lewian
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Posted: October 09 2023 at 16:20 |
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She said what she said, she didn't say what she didn't say. I don't deny she said this (and as explanation that in 2014/15 the Ukraine was so weak that Russia could easily have overrun her). I already explained why this made sense even without preparing a war.
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MikeEnRegalia
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Posted: October 09 2023 at 16:30 |
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I'm aware of the duplicity, I explicitly mentioned "game theory" in my previous post. It is bad faith to enter an agreement with the intention of doing the opposite. The fact that the other party may know that you entered it in bad faith (they know you're a liar and prepare accordingly) doesn't change the fact that you did. Sure, in general politicians are professional liars. We are only talking about this now since a few posts earlier someone singled out Russia as the dishonest ones. I'm just saying that everybody lies, and some in more egregious ways than others.
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Lewian
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Posted: October 09 2023 at 16:37 |
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^ Doing something that is not in violation of an agreement is not "the opposite". Neither is it lying.
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MikeEnRegalia
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Posted: October 09 2023 at 16:45 |
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How was Ukraine not in violation of Minsk 2?
Edited by MikeEnRegalia - October 09 2023 at 16:45 |
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Lewian
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Posted: October 09 2023 at 17:01 |
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I'm making reference to Merkel's quote. What she said was not in violation of Minsk 2, and this was what we were talking about. Minsk 2 didn't work out from either side, but that's another story.
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omphaloskepsis
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Joined: October 19 2011 Location: Texas Status: Online Points: 6802 |
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Posted: October 09 2023 at 17:09 |
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Yes, there are hypocrites on both sides. Good faith...bad faith. The Russian people think NATO broke Minsk agreements. The Russian people take it as bad faith. Russia won't make a similar deal again. The Ukraine Summer Offensive is a massive failure. America is thinking about pulling support to Ukraine. Israel is more important to America. Bottom Line: -Russia doesn't want nukes a few hundred miles from Moscow. Russia won't stop until they eliminate that threat. Is it a threat? Russia thinks so. -Russia will not allow Ukraine to join NATO. It doesn't matter whether you or I like it. Or if it's right or wrong. -It doesn't matter whether you or I disagree with the Autumn 2022 vote referendums. According to Russian law, Putin has no choice but to defend the four Oblasts to the end. - Every day brings America closer to ending support for Ukraine. The Speaker of the House lost his job over Ukraine support. American Neo-cons are rattling sabers over attacking Iran to protect Israel. - Sanctions against Russia backfired 1. BRICS added several Middle East members. BRICS avoids trading in the Dollars. Currently, the BRICS plus members trade with each other in their own currencies. 2. Since 2021, Russia's economy went from #11 worldwide to #6. 3. Since the attack on Nordstream, the German economy has gone under its worst decline in recent memory. No more cheap Russian energy for Germany. That's OK with America. The US wants Germany dependent on America. 4. NATO/US pushed Russia into China's waiting arms. How is that good for NATO/US? 5. Ukraine has undergone at least ten mobilizations. Ukraine is running out of men. Russia mobilized once: 300,000 last fall. By Russian law, those conscripts can only serve on Russian soil. Since the beginning of 2023, Russia has had more than 300,000 military volunteers. By Russian law, volunteers can fight on Ukrainian soil. Poland is pulling support Hungry is pulling support Slovakia is pulling support...all three countries border Ukraine. When asked why the US is supplying Ukraine with illegal cluster bombs, President Biden said, "We ran out of ammunition." Rumor has it that North Korea will supply Russia with ten million artillery shells. What am I saying? It does not matter what we think. Russia will not stop until they accomplish the goals they set out to accomplish. What were those goals? 1. Free the Donbass 2. Demillartarize Ukraine (Destroy Ukraine's military) 3. Denatzify Ukraine 4. Stop Ukraine from ever joining NATO Reality? I estimate that there is a 90% chance that Russia will accomplish 3/4's of its goals. I don't think Russia will be able to Denatzify Ukraine, since the Bandera nazis are in West Ukraine. I don't think Russia wants to mess with taking West Ukraine. I wouldn't be surprised if Poland and Hungry take sections of West Ukraine...parts that used to be Poland...parts that used to be Hungry. I'm not claiming that Russia is right. I'm not claiming that Ukraine is wrong. Or, visa-versa. Edited by omphaloskepsis - October 09 2023 at 17:33 |
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Prog-jester
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Joined: June 05 2005 Location: Love Beach Status: Offline Points: 5909 |
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Posted: October 09 2023 at 17:52 |
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Jeez bandera nazis crimea referendum us maidan coup...the irony of reading russian propaganda bingo on a progressive (sic) music forum. Thankfully from the few users only.
I guess having an actual citizen of Ukraine telling you how it really is/was won't stop certain forum members from clinging to delusional stuff they chose to believe in. Probably life is easier that way - the country you never heard of before is all bad, therefore they all deserve to be wiped out by russians (who are also bad BUT YOU KNOW WHAT USA BAD ALSO!!1). Ridiculous and a little heartbreaking - I truly thought most prog fans are, well, progressive. Apparently not. Well, you guys enjoy your little qanon cult, but don't be surprised to find a russian in your home soon, telling you he owns it now because nato biolabs something something nazis Edited by Prog-jester - October 09 2023 at 17:54 |
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omphaloskepsis
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Joined: October 19 2011 Location: Texas Status: Online Points: 6802 |
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Posted: October 09 2023 at 18:25 |
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Canada Parliament gives a standing ovation to a Ukrainian Nazi who fought for Germany. Edited by omphaloskepsis - October 09 2023 at 18:27 |
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Easy Money
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Posted: October 09 2023 at 18:26 |
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Many people in the US are spoiled and unfamiliar with war, they have an almost opposite mind set to that of a lot of East Europeans. East Europeans do know the Russian mindset and their ways, as many have lived under their rule in the past. A lot of my friends are East European and I have visited and hope to visit again. Edited by Easy Money - October 09 2023 at 18:28 |
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MikeEnRegalia wrote: