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Easy Money 
Special Collaborator 
Honorary Collaborator / Retired Admin Joined: August 11 2007 Location: Memphis Status: Offline Points: 10679 |
 Posted: July 18 2020 at 12:36 |
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^ Tennessee used to have some smart repubs, Corker and Lamar are both trump critics, but they are being replaced by trumpateers and the like, sad.
Edited by Easy Money - July 18 2020 at 12:37 |
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Help the victims of the russian invasion:
http://www.jazzmusicarchives.com/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=28523&PID=130446&title=various-ways-you-can-help-ukraine#130446 |
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micky
Special Collaborator
Honorary Collaborator Joined: October 02 2005 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 46838 |
Posted: July 18 2020 at 12:54 |
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and that is why John I have said the Republican Party is dead man walking... to where it becomes a regional rump 3rd party based in the south and Midwestern Plain states. Good question when Baker, Hogan go.. who is next man up in the old school Rockefellerian Republican tradition... a recent article petty much nailed it. They are examples of where the party needs to go to survive the profound demographic changes in the coming years and the resulting electoral realignment of which 2020 is just a preview of what is to perhaps come in the years to come. No states are moving red.. a good many are moving blue.
but will it? no one.. not just me.. thinks they will.. or can.
look at California.. 2018.. Republicans already pretty much relegated to approximate 3rd part status... all knowing they need to expand appeal beyond meat head Trump white grievance voter and who did their voters nominate to run against Newsome for Governor... yes.. some moron who called for shoving a 2x4 up immigrant asses and building Trump's wall.... Trump's Wall?.. in f**king CALIFORNIA!!!!!!  So yes.. it is a dead party walking.. but the time it might change.. it will be too late. Remember 1980.. once a party loses a voting demographic.. it is not temporary nor easy to ever get them back. What were working class whites in 1980.. are women and suburbanites in 2020. ANd that will be fatal to the Republicans for the Democrats were parmagmatic enough to adjust.. the Republicans are too rigid in their ideology to adust.. and they did too good a job with the dog whistles and playing to white fears.....and that is the core voting base they are now stuck with. |
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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npjnpj
Forum Senior Member 
Joined: December 05 2007 Location: Germany Status: Offline Points: 2720 |
Posted: July 19 2020 at 00:27 |
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This talk is about a decrepit republican party and a majority of the democrats in the polls is making me feel very apprehensive. Remember that we are talking about a voting body that is mainly morbidly uneducated and heartbreakingly stupid. As proof, look at the daily Coronavirus figures that would have been easily preventable with even a tiny grain of common sense. Other countries have proven that. All that these polls are going to achieve is that the democratic voters are going to stay at home because it seems a done deal, and the Trump supporters are going to turn out in droves, including an apparently massive contingent of secret Trump voters. As for the polls themselves: it's all very well saying that previous polls were unreliable (just plain wrong) because of such-and-such factors that are corrected now, but this will occur again and again because new 'unforeseen' factors are bound to crop up almost every time. That's just the way these esoteric things go. It doesn't help that comparing the present polls to those of the past (especially due to the Coronavirus) the underlying circumstances are so vastly different as to make such comparisons unsustainable in both a historical and a statistical sense. I've said it before and I'll say it again: polls are a waste of time, and just because in the past they happened to be correct in a few cases doesn't disprove my point. I regard them as dangerous for the above reasons. I still think Trump is going to win this unless something drastic changes, and I can't see that happening. |
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Mirakaze
Special Collaborator
Eclectic, JRF/Canterbury, Avant/Zeuhl Joined: December 17 2019 Location: (redacted) Status: Offline Points: 4232 |
Posted: July 19 2020 at 03:23 |
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No offense, but you can't expect people to take any of this seriously if you don't present concrete statistical evidence that opinion polls have this effect on people, or explain where this "apparently" (according to whom?) massive contingent of secret Trump voters comes from. The "shy Trump voter" theory is undercut by the fact that Trump doesn't fare significantly better in online polls without a live caller to reveal your unsavory views to.
It seems to me that you're basing this opinion entirely on the Brexit referendum and the results of the 2016 US election, which aren't the slam dunks you think they are anyway. Opinion polls paint a reliable picture of voting trends in the majority of cases and there's no evidence that far-right politicians consistently outperform polls.
I actually agree that this is a very real possibility but if it happens I think it's far more likely to occur because of horrendous voter suppression on the part of the executive and its newly formed paramilitary squads than because a majority of Americans actually believe that the current president is doing a good job healing the country's ills.
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npjnpj
Forum Senior Member
Joined: December 05 2007 Location: Germany Status: Offline Points: 2720 |
Posted: July 19 2020 at 05:08 |
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Well, as for the 'secret voter' problem, see the Monmouth University study from 15th July this year. The influence of polls on voters is a well documented psychological effect. My estimation of polls goes way further back than 2016 or the Brexit referendum. Take practically any surprise election outcome from anywhere in the last few years. Yes, voter suppression is and will be one hell of a problem.
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Mirakaze
Special Collaborator
Eclectic, JRF/Canterbury, Avant/Zeuhl Joined: December 17 2019 Location: (redacted) Status: Offline Points: 4232 |
Posted: July 19 2020 at 07:02 |
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If this is the study you refer to I don't think it's very significant. It only covers one state and it doesn't actually provide any evidence for "secret voters" actually being numerous enough to make a difference in the end, it just says many people suspect that there may be a lot of them.
Obviously, but I have yet to hear of anyone claiming with evidence that positive polling performances are actually detrimental to politicians because they supposedly bring down voter turnout among their supporters. If you think that's true, please find me the study that says that.
Edited by Mirakaze - July 19 2020 at 07:03 |
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npjnpj
Forum Senior Member
Joined: December 05 2007 Location: Germany Status: Offline Points: 2720 |
Posted: July 19 2020 at 07:31 |
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The purpose of smaller scale research is to be able to extrapolate from there. If this does not seem feasible, you might as well write to Monmouth and tell them to save the money, the resources, and the time. If you shop around, you can find other articles about secret voters too. Isn't the poll effect in question more or less exactly what happened during the US presidential election in 2016 with Trump and Hillary?
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micky
Special Collaborator
Honorary Collaborator Joined: October 02 2005 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 46838 |
Posted: July 19 2020 at 08:21 |
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you again... comparing 2016 to 2020 is only something desperate Republicans, people ignorant of American Politics, and Russian trolls do
so which are you man... it is a vastly different world today than four years ago in case you haven't paid a bit of f**king attention.
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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npjnpj
Forum Senior Member
Joined: December 05 2007 Location: Germany Status: Offline Points: 2720 |
Posted: July 19 2020 at 08:26 |
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Hi Micky, nice to see you too. I must say I quite enjoy the effect I have on you. You're too easy, man.
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micky
Special Collaborator
Honorary Collaborator Joined: October 02 2005 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 46838 |
Posted: July 19 2020 at 08:35 |
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hah... I've always been too easy... but don't think I particularly care what you think. You simply aren't that intelligent or knowledgeable to really get my hackles up.
You are a toy to chew on.. nothing more.. nothing less.
 Edited by micky - July 19 2020 at 08:36 |
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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npjnpj
Forum Senior Member
Joined: December 05 2007 Location: Germany Status: Offline Points: 2720 |
Posted: July 19 2020 at 08:38 |
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And triggered again. See? Too easy.
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micky
Special Collaborator
Honorary Collaborator Joined: October 02 2005 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 46838 |
Posted: July 19 2020 at 08:43 |
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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micky
Special Collaborator
Honorary Collaborator Joined: October 02 2005 Location: . Status: Offline Points: 46838 |
Posted: July 19 2020 at 09:19 |
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and on the subject of polling.. as has been once said.. it has been said a 1000 times. 2016 polling was not wrong.. what is was was misinterpreted. In hindsight pollsters and politics saw what they missed
and since 2016. they have really only been off in one case... which ahem.. was here in Virginia.. where they underestimated DEMOCRATIC votes.. not Republican. great article today on just what it means to interpret them... the biggest difference between 2016 and 2020 is voters were split .. almost 50-50 between generic preference for Democrat and Republican. Now that edge is approaching double digits for Democrats. the other big difference.. enthusiam... Trump had it then.. has it now among his supporters. Big diference and what polling didn't take into account in 2016 was then.. there was little enthusiams among Democratic voters.. saying you would vote for one is not the same as doing so. Measuring enthusiasm takes that into account. ie.. Democrats are motivated as hell to get out and vote.. be it for Biden.. or against Trump.. doesn't matter.. the end result is the same. 80 percent of Democrats rated their level of interest in the election as a “9” or “10” on a 1-10 scale, more than the 74 percent of Republicans who gave the same ratings.
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The Pedro and Micky Experience - When one no longer requires psychotropics to trip
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BaldJean
Prog Reviewer 
Joined: May 28 2005 Location: Germany Status: Offline Points: 10387 |
Posted: July 20 2020 at 05:00 |
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the number of new coronavirus cases has reached a new record high: Trump's solution: well, if the disease counts are against you take over the counting yourself: Edited by BaldJean - July 20 2020 at 05:03 |
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 A shot of me as High Priestess of Gaia during our fall festival. Ceterum censeo principiis obsta |
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rushfan4
Special Collaborator
Honorary Collaborator Joined: May 22 2007 Location: Michigan, U.S. Status: Offline Points: 66588 |
Posted: July 20 2020 at 08:46 |
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On a walk through my neighborhood I saw about 10-15 Trump-Pence signs out on the lawn and 0 Biden-? signs on the lawn. I suppose that until ? become an actual person there aren't any signs to put out on the lawn. I have a feeling that Macomb County is voting Red again this year.
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AFlowerKingCrimson
Forum Senior Member
Joined: October 02 2016 Location: Philly burbs Status: Offline Points: 18948 |
Posted: July 20 2020 at 11:42 |
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How long before those Trump signs get egged or taken down though?
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npjnpj
Forum Senior Member
Joined: December 05 2007 Location: Germany Status: Offline Points: 2720 |
Posted: July 20 2020 at 12:43 |
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Wouldn't recommend that. You'll be bundled into an unmarked rental van by the anonymous supersoldier. I've heard they're working on their insignia: a skull and crossbones with an orange wig.
Edited by npjnpj - July 20 2020 at 12:45 |
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Snicolette
Forum Senior Member
Joined: November 02 2018 Location: OR Status: Offline Points: 6048 |
Posted: July 20 2020 at 12:52 |
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It is so bizarre. I live not far from Portland.
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"Into every rain, a little life must fall." ~Tom Rapp
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AFlowerKingCrimson
Forum Senior Member
Joined: October 02 2016 Location: Philly burbs Status: Offline Points: 18948 |
Posted: July 20 2020 at 13:00 |
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I didn't say I would do it but it definitely has been done and will continue to be done. Anonymous supersoldier. That's a good one. Why don't they take away the president instead especially if he doesn't leave the oval office voluntarily which reportedly is a possible scenario.
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AFlowerKingCrimson
Forum Senior Member
Joined: October 02 2016 Location: Philly burbs Status: Offline Points: 18948 |
Posted: July 20 2020 at 13:02 |
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That must be like living near a warzone. Pretty much any kind of extremism is counterproductive.
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The American Politics Thread
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npjnpj wrote: