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Topic ClosedIs the Middle East going to war?

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 29 2006 at 11:14
The question is....When ISN'T the Middle East going to war?


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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 29 2006 at 08:44
Originally posted by Sean Trane Sean Trane wrote:

It has not been this bad in a few decades if you ask me.
 
You have Israeli forces taking hostages/prisoners ministers of another Gov't. That has been unseen in quite a while
 
They has besieged the buildings before, but not taken as prisoners.
 
 
 


yeah... that caught my attention immediately... then again it's not like they are not at war.. and haven't been for many many years...
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 29 2006 at 08:09
Perhaps it's the beginning of this....

Gog & Magog


    
    

Edited by Blacksword - June 29 2006 at 08:10
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 29 2006 at 06:22
It has not been this bad in a few decades if you ask me.
 
You have Israeli forces taking hostages/prisoners ministers of another Gov't. That has been unseen in quite a while
 
They had besieged the buildings before, but not taken as prisoners.
 
 
 


Edited by Sean Trane - June 29 2006 at 08:50
let's just stay above the moral melee
prefer the sink to the gutter
keep our sand-castle virtues
content to be a doer
as well as a thinker,
prefer lifting our pen
rather than un-sheath our sword
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 29 2006 at 06:17
Update:

Israel has captured and detained dozens of Hamas government ministers and law makers. Israeli tanks are poised to move on northern Gaza.

BBC Report
    

Edited by Blacksword - June 29 2006 at 06:18
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 29 2006 at 05:16
Originally posted by JrKASperov JrKASperov wrote:

Powder keg? I don't think so. What could happen? War between the two countries? Isn't that already happening?


Yes, it been happening since 1948.

I think the fear is that the conflict could expand, if other countries, sympathetic to the Palestinian position, decide to get involved. This will depend on how heavy handed Israel are, and of course how far the PA decide to push Israel, by killing those they have taken hostage, or by continuing rocket attacks.

You're right. This is, basically nothing new, and the conflict has had the potential to expand in the past. I think there is an almost irrational sense of 'apocalypse' in the air at present, due to fear of global terror, Iran and North Koreas nuclear programs. Many people believe that this conflict is quite central to the overal problem, and I share that view to a point.
    
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 29 2006 at 03:39
Powder keg? I don't think so. What could happen? War between the two countries? Isn't that already happening?
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 28 2006 at 18:18
Originally posted by Blacksword Blacksword wrote:

Washington may have forbid Israel to use force in the past, but what are the consequences for Israel if they ignore Washington? Not much.

Generally, the US IS in full support of Israel. They may grimace occassionally at Israels heavy handedness, but they are very much behind the Jewish state. I can understand the US supporting this vital democracy in the ME, but balance in their views can still be possible, while supporting the democratic principles Israel stands for.
 
That isn't true.  The aid pursestrings are very powerful, and depending on congress, are loosened and tightened based on American approval/dissaproval.  America is pretty responsible for Israel completely changing the WB fence route.
 
 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 28 2006 at 18:09
Washington may have forbid Israel to use force in the past, but what are the consequences for Israel if they ignore Washington? Not much.

Generally, the US IS in full support of Israel. They may grimace occassionally at Israels heavy handedness, but they are very much behind the Jewish state. I can understand the US supporting this vital democracy in the ME, but balance in their views can still be possible, while supporting the democratic principles Israel stands for.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 28 2006 at 18:06
^ good point AALFW, I agree. 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 28 2006 at 18:02
Originally posted by Blacksword Blacksword wrote:

It's interesting that the EU calls on BOTH sides to seek a diplomatic solution, but the US decines to comment on Israeli reaction, and blames Hamas for everything. Washington merely states that Israel has the right to defend itself. I dont think many people would dispute that, but why is the US so reluctant to criticise Israeli action?

I think more could be achieved if the US took a more balanced view.

It seems to me to be a 'no brainer' that nothing will be achieved in bringing about a ceasefire, by Israels current course of action. Perhaps Israel, or indeed both sides are delberately trying to escalate this conflict.
    
 
At the same time Washington in the past has prohibited Israel from using the force that they want to use.  Washington has repeatedly sided with Israel, but at the same time limited Israel's military options.  I wish Washington would stop playing Israel for fools and tell them one of two things.  Either to wholeheartedly support Israel and allow them to use all force they believe necessary, or become a mediator and try to bring both sides togethor in agreement.
 
I much prefer the second option, but I think the U.S. really needs to take a stand on this situation.

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 28 2006 at 17:57
It's interesting that the EU calls on BOTH sides to seek a diplomatic solution, but the US decines to comment on Israeli reaction, and blames Hamas for everything. Washinton merely states that Israel has the right to defend itself. I dont think many people would dispute that, but why is the US so reluctant to criticise Israeli action?

I think more could be achieved if the US took a more balanced view.

It seems to me to be a 'no brainer' that nothing will be achieved in bringing about a ceasefire, by Israels current course of action. Perhaps Israel, or indeed both sides are delberately trying to escalate this conflict.
    

Edited by Blacksword - June 28 2006 at 17:58
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 28 2006 at 17:51
True, there is a great deal of potentially dangerous "muscle-flexing" going on right now.  However, I don't think it will lead to any kind of widespread conflagration.  Still, it would be best if everyone there took a chil pill and "toned down" the "perceived hostile acts."
 
Peace.  (Now more than ever...)
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 28 2006 at 17:47

here is the Int'l response:

 
Annan: Release of Shalit would defuse tensions between Israel, PA
By News Agencies

UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan on Wednesday urged Hamas militants to release unharmed captured Israel Defense Forces soldier Gilad Shalit from the Gaza Strip border on Sunday in order to defuse Israeli-Palestinian tensions.

Annan said he discussed by telephone with Prime Minister Ehud Omert the military raid he ordered into Gaza, saying that unilateral action would not resolve the situation.

"It is important that the two leaders (Olmert and Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas) work together to calm the situation," Annan told reporters.

He said Olmert promised "maximum restraint" in the use of force while Israeli troops and tanks have entered Gaza.

Annan said he also talked to Abbas, who said he was discussing with Palestinian factions ways to bring the violence under control.

"I hope they will allow time for a diplomatic solution," Annan said. "I hope no action will be taken to harm him (the Israeli soldier) and that he would be returned alive."

U.S. blames Hamas for escalation
The Bush administration on Wednesday blamed the Hamas movement for the recent escalation sparked by the kidnapping of Shalit.

At the White House, press secretary Tony Snow said "the hostage-taking and the attacks by Hamas last weekend have precipitated the current events in Gaza," Snow said. "Israel has the right to defend itself and the lives of its citizens. ... Let's just point out, once again, you have the Israeli forces trying to reclaim somebody who was kidnapped and is being held hostage in Gaza. And they are doing what they can to return him."

Snow would not comment on any of the specific actions taken by Israel.

The U.S. Administration affirmed on Wednesday Israel's right to defend itself against acts of terror and called on Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas and Egypt to help resolve a crisis provoked by the abduction of Shalit.

The White House and State Department declined to take a position on Israel's pressure offensive in southern Gaza that has knocked out electricity and water supplies for some 700 thousand Palestinians living in Gaza.

"It's generally not our practice to go into the details of diplomatic conversations," said deputy State Department spokesman Adam Ereli.

At the same time, the spokesman stressed that "Israel has a right to defend itself and the lives of its citizens," while urging Israel "to ensure that innocent lives are not harmed."

Ereli urged Palestinian militants to release the soldier and Israel to "avoid the unnecessary destruction of property and infrastructure" as it tries to get him back.

Spokesmen said Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and U.S. diplomats "continue to do everything we can... to bring this crisis to a peaceful resolution."

Abbas and the Egyptians "have contacts and have capabilities that can be useful in resolving this crisis," said Ereli.

Rice, who is traveling in South Asia, telephoned Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni for a second time this week, Ereli said. He declined to say whether Israel was informing Rice and other U.S. officials about its military operations and whether the Bush administration was trying to influence Israel's strategy.

EU urges Israel, PA to resolve soldier crisis diplomatically
The European Union urged both Israel and the Palestinians on Wedndesday, to "step back from the brink" and allow diplomacy to resolve the crisis caused by the abduction of Gilad Shalit.

"All sides need to consider their responsibilities extremely carefully," EU External Relations Commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner said in a statement on Wednesday, after IDF troops moved into the Gaza Strip, shelling targets and bombing power stations and a bridge.

"Both sides need to step back from the brink before this becomes a crisis that neither side can control," Ferrero-Waldner warned.

The IDF operation was aimed at pressuring militants to release IDF soldier Corporal Gilad Shalit, captured during a cross-border raid on Sunday. The militants have demanded that all Palestinian women and children held in Israeli jails be set free.

Wednesday's EU statement demanded that the Palestinian militants immediately release Shalit, saying that keeping him would only make things worse for the Palestinian people.

"It is unacceptable to seek political goals by such means," Ferrero-Waldner said.

She reiterated a call for those holding Shalit to free him, and urged Israel to "act with prudence," in order to allow for the success of diplomatic efforts to secure his release.

Ferrero-Waldner expressed concern about the IDF shelling that had
disrupted electricity supplies in much of Gaza, saying vital services such as hospitals also had been affected.

"Everything must be done to prevent the humanitarian situation from worsening," she said.

Austria, the current president of the EU, also called for the IDF soldier's "immediate and unconditional release."

Austria urged "the Palestinian leadership to undertake all necessary efforts in this regard" and called on all parties to show restraint and to "avoid further escalation."

In his weekly House of Commons question session, British Prime Minister Tony Blair said Wednesday that the IDF offensive in Gaza demonstrated the importance of restarting the peace process, "which is the only way to stop events like the terrible events of the last 24 hours."

"In the end, what is necessary obviously is to make sure that peace and calm is restored so that there's some possibility of getting negotiation going," he said.

Blair said he still wanted to return to the long-stalled road map peace plan drafted by the Quartet, which is made up of the United States, the United Nations, the European Union and Russia.

In Paris, France's Foreign Minister denounced the use of force by both sides saying the crisis could only be solved through a political dialogue.

Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy said he still believed it was possible to restart the stalled peace process, and pointed to the announcement Tuesday of a Palestinian plan that implicitly recognizes Israel. He described the plan, hammered out by rival Hamas and Fatah movements, as a "significant step forward."

In Tokyo, the government said it was reevaluating a trip by Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi to the Middle East next month, following reports of the Israeli incursion into Gaza.

The Japanese leader was expected to visit Israel and the Palestinian
territories before attending the G8 summit of industrialized nations in
mid-July in Russia. But the recent spike in violence may alter those plans, Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe said.

"At this stage, we have not decided on what to do," Abe said. "In any case, various things occur in this region, so we need to constantly keep a close watch."

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 28 2006 at 17:35
Originally posted by Blacksword Blacksword wrote:

Originally posted by bhikkhu bhikkhu wrote:

       I hate to see these things happen. When are people going to realize that you can't change opinion at the barrel of a gun. The U.S. probably won't do anything, except talk, or sanctions. There's no money in it for Cheney and friends.


Sanctions on who?

Israel has already shelled a power station and is threatening to cut off water supplies. There is very little we can do to punish the Hamas government. They dont really have anything except foreign aid, and much of that has` already been cut.

There is not much the US, or anyone can do really. This conflict belongs to Israel and the Palestinians. If the PA refuses to recognise Israel, and Israel continues it's heavy handed approach there is no hope.
    
 
Exactly, there is little anyone can do about Hamas.  Palestinians will suffer under this extremist government, but their hatred will turn to Israel and supposed collaborators like Abu Mazen, when they should turn to Hamas, who has made them into pariahs.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 28 2006 at 17:04

Well first of all it's terrible to see things happening.  After so many efforts to try to compromise between Israel and Palestine, things still seem to be the way they always have been, and maybe even getting worse.

I don't believe there will be war anytime soon.   The Internatioinal community is going to intervene and more negoiations will take place and eventually bring forth a ceasefire.  However I do believe that there will be more violence than the International community was hoping for this year.

 


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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 28 2006 at 17:04
Originally posted by bhikkhu bhikkhu wrote:

       I hate to see these things happen. When are people going to realize that you can't change opinion at the barrel of a gun. The U.S. probably won't do anything, except talk, or sanctions. There's no money in it for Cheney and friends.


Sanctions on who?

Israel has already shelled a power station and is threatening to cut off water supplies. There is very little we can do to punish the Hamas government. They dont really have anything except foreign aid, and much of that has` already been cut.

There is not much the US, or anyone can do really. This conflict belongs to Israel and the Palestinians. If the PA refuses to recognise Israel, and Israel continues it's heavy handed approach there is no hope.
    
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 28 2006 at 16:59
      I hate to see these things happen. When are people going to realize that you can't change opinion at the barrel of a gun. The U.S. probably won't do anything, except talk, or sanctions. There's no money in it for Cheney and friends.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 28 2006 at 15:46
I found this on the back shelf of the BBC news site. It seems Israel is accusing Syria of complicity in the kidnapping.

BBC Report

Assuming this does not escalte into a broader conflict, dont see how this crisis can be resolved without significant bloodshed on both sides. I also dont see how the Israeli incursions are going to improve things in the longer term.
    

Edited by Blacksword - June 28 2006 at 15:47
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 28 2006 at 15:42
It's not just the kidnapping, but that was seen as a "last straw" since it occurred in Israel proper.  It is more a response to the 1000+ qassam rockets launched from Gaza since Israel withdrew.
 
Yea Olmert is pretty beholden to Western opinion, especially of the USA.  He came back from his USA/EU tour spouting very different rhetoric.
 
But yea, I think it is pretty bad.  No good will come of this, except maybe a few weeks of quite on the Gaza border for Israel.
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