The American Politics Thread

Before accepting that article from the Gatestone Institute as something reliable, it's worth your time to investigate exactly what the Gatestone Institute is and who is running it.

I'm glad to see that Trump is as popular in the UK as he is in the US. And the British thought that Mitt Romney was a twit!

BaldFriede wrote: Logan wrote: I don't think I am missing the point as it's not that short a time. That increase is since 1975 when Sweden opened its doors to Moslem migrants up until 2014. I don't even know how much Sweden's population has even increased in about 40 years, so I don't have enough info to deeply interpret the data. You can question how impact moslem immigration had on the increase, but there is a very significant rise in reported rape cases over those 40 years. "In 1975, 421 rapes were reported to the police; in 2014, it was 6,620. That is an increase of 1,472%." Yes, Logan, and since 1975 1.150.000 new immigrants came to Sweden; the rest of the foreign population had been living there already without committing rape crimes. And then during the last 40 years for some reason they started doing so. There were, however, several changes to Chapter 6 of the Swedish Penal Code since 1975. I don't know what exactly these changes were, but there were several; they are noted in the Penal Code. I think it is highly probable that the increase in the sexual crime rate has something to do with these changes; acts that had not considered to be criminal before now are. An example of how this can happen: Before 1997 rape in a marriage was not considered to be a crime in Germany. So the rape rate increased some since 1997. There also is the fact that rape victims often don't report these crimes, so there always is a dark figure. But over the years more and more women find the courage to report sex crimes. This also leads to an increase of these figures. You can't simply compare crime statistics from different countries simply because the definition of what a crime is not the same in these different countries. So saying something like "Sweden has the highest rape rate" is quite meaningless. I won't even go into the role of cultural misunderstandings.

I think you're missing the dishonesty of these statistics. If you go by raw reported rapes from the FBI's UCR, then rape in the United States has nearly doubled since 1973, up to 90,000 from 51,000. If you use the more accurate, more valuable, more generalizeable BJS crime victimization survey rate, rapes have plummeted to less than one fifth the 1973 rate (see: 1973, 2014). Using the FBI data would be patently dishonest, of course, but that's exactly the kind of data used. Even without changes in law or mores, it's unhelpful data to have.

That the claims are so boldly duplicitous is intended, I should think. It's a bit like the Nigerian prince scam: it's just dumb enough that skeptical readers can reject it outright, so the scammers can focus on fleecing the most vulnerable. Add to that the tendency for rumors masquerading as fact to spread just as well if not better than actual fact and you may have the recipe they were following.


Edited by Gamemako - February 20 2017 at 22:37

omphaloskepsis wrote: The Stock Market is at an all time high.   That's great for American retirement accounts.  Stock Market prices are based on future optimism.  That's the way the Stock Market works.  How do I know?  I quit my Day Job 17 years ago to go full time trading the stock market.

The stock market was already at record highs under Obama. Neither president can claim credit for it. For that matter, investment is high in bull markets because people have money to invest at higher yields. Mandatory spending and military spending comprise more than 3/4 of our $3.8 trillion federal budget. What is left is half a trillion dollars, or less than 3% of GDP. You bet on market conditions, not on an administration.

omphaloskepsis wrote: How do you tell the difference between the good immigrants and the terrorists without extreme vetting?

How do you tell the difference between good Americans and domestic terrorists without extreme vetting? Nay, we must allow the CIA to freely surveil, imprison, and torture all American citizens to determine their TRUE colors! Your argument worthy of naught but mockery.

omphaloskepsis wrote: According to Wikipedia the Netherlands has a 4% Muslim population.    Compare that to Sweden's 14.3%.   Sweden has the 2nd highest rape rate on the planet Earth.  Please look it up yourself

You should probably read what people have already posted, like my response in the last thread when you brought it up. It was wrong then, and it's still wrong now. I'm also going to repost the German economic study of refugees that found no such thing.

Perhaps moreover... how do you manage to convince yourself of such a preposterous notion to begin with? I can see how people use fear to manipulate others and I understand why that can be convincing in the first place, but when readers point out the obvious flaws, you've just ignored it. What makes it so sticky that you not forgo skepticism at the outset, but actively crusade for an idea that doesn't pass a basic sniff test?

//EDIT: Oh, oh! I wasn't going to post it, but I thought it was worth noting. You can review some Swedish statistics on rape here, where you can see that between 2005 and 2014, victimization did not change significantly (0.9% in 2005, 1.0% in 2014), but reported offenses increased by about 50%. As has been said over and over, it's all about how the law itself and how sexual offenses are reported. On the flipside, you know what's gone up? Reported hate crimes, especially those with Islamophobic motivation.


Edited by Gamemako - February 20 2017 at 21:01

Logan wrote: I didn't notice him mentioning the stats being limited to new immigrants. Sweden opened its doors to Moslem refugees back in the 70s. Anyway, yeah, see how your stats correlate to the stats he mentioned here as you're much more of a maths person than I: https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/5195/sweden-rape

You are missing the point, Logan. There is a supposed rise of rape crimes by 1452% within a short time span. Now please explain to me why all of a sudden the foreigners who have been living in Sweden for quite some time should start committing rape crimes to such an extent.

As to Sweden being the country with the highest rape rate: Read Chapter 6 of the Swedish Penal Code.

Logan wrote: Thanks, that's interesting. When doing stats things should be broken down as much as possible. Where there is poverty there is usually more violent crime. I was getting confused too with the stats that Friede was arguing with Omphal, cause it seemed to be talking at cross-purposes rather than sourcing statistics to make comparisons and generate a bigger picture.

I thought the statistics were obvious. There was talk of an increase of rape crime rate that was correlated to the number of new immigrants (around 1.150.000; I can look up the exact number if wanted). I only did the maths which resulted in the per capita number of rape crimes committed by a new immigrant being about 1500 times as high as the per capita number of rape crimes from the rest of the population, which is ridiculous.

Logan wrote: ^^ Interesting, so you don't find more people who identify with Islam in prison, or have links to crime such as terrorism, rape, wife-beatings, proportionately than native Dutch? And I guess the same can be said for the rest of Europe (migrants and children/grandchildren of migrants from moslem countries are not more likely to be involved in violent acts, or appeals to violent action in the country, than those of that countries ancestry, say with Sweden, Belgium, France etc.). I enjoyed by time in the Netherlands and Belgium a couple of years ago, though I didn't go to Molonbeek. I should have. What issues of general behavior are people complaining about? I'm anti-Trump, but I think improved vetting makes sense. I wish that the west could somehow eventually help to rebuild their home countries so that the migrants can return in time. Or I should say, make it safe, then they can help rebuild their countries. Must be hard on these people to feel like they have to leave their homelands and adapt to a new culture (western secular societies built on liberal values) that must be very alien to some of them.

Investigations here have shown that about 75%(I think it was) of difference in crime can be subscribed to income differences, to start with. Then you can take into account that most of them are either first or second generation immigrants, and with the second generation there is very little difference left... People do complain about Muslims (most often Moroccans apparently) hanging around on the streets, not being trustworthy, being more violent, but within reasonable bounds, banding together with other Muslims, etc. They're not perfect, but we've had them for a while and surely they are not a threat.

omphaloskepsis wrote: twseel wrote: Pff that's some twisted logic, Obama has gone to war with extremist terrorists, Trump is obstructing the millions of non-extremists trying to flee from a small group that is trying to KILL them. Also, the rapefugee thing is deluded, please come to Europe, come see for yourself on the streets here in the Netherlands, the poorest corners with the most immigrants, countries with 10 times as many Muslims per capita as the US, see for yourself how completely harmless and safe it is instead trampling over the same single contrived statistic. People complaining about Muslims here are complaining about general behavior, not crime, since that simply hasn't increased in any significant way. How do you tell the difference between the good immigrants and the terrorists without extreme vetting?  It's twisted logic to suggest that only good Muslims wish to immigrate to America.   I'm sure terrorists are too stupid to think of hiding amongst fleeing refugees.  Terrorists would never think of that.  President Trump wishes place a 6 month ban on immigration from 7 Islamic countries, so that an Infrastructure can be put into place to interview and document immigrants from countries American has been at war with for fifteen years.   Do you think it's a bad idea?    If so, what would you do? According to Wikipedia the Netherlands has a 4% Muslim population.    Compare that to Sweden's 14.3%.   Sweden has the 2nd highest rape rate on the planet Earth.  Please look it up yourself.

I have read up on that, the answer is in Friede's post. It's a matter of policy. Speaking of policy, America already has one of the strictest entrance policies anywhere, there is nothing America doesn't dig up now with help of actual facts that will be found with some apparently very complex interview. Sure it sounds all neat from a distance but you're seriously already doing everything rationally possible and beyond, and if someone really wants to harm America anyway it really isn't difficult for them to find people already there to do it for them; this is what has happened in Europe... And besides, you're discraminating, in the most literal form against, I believe, 1,5 billion people to weed out a few hundred who could reasonably be a direct threat.Also, like I said, some of these people are being left to get KILLED. Dozens of countries are trying to deal with this problem, if you want to hold yourself up to be a responsible, reliable or relevant country to any degree it's completely unacceptable to say 'meh, it's just too hard for us', while Eastern Europe is seriously struggling to keep hundreds of thousands of victims from becoming homeless and nationless.

^^ Interesting, so you don't find more people who identify with Islam in prison, or have links to crime such as terrorism, rape, wife-beatings, proportionately than native Dutch? And I guess the same can be said for the rest of Europe (migrants and children/grandchildren of migrants from moslem countries are not more likely to be involved in violent acts, or appeals to violent action in the country, than those of that countries ancestry, say with Sweden, Belgium, France etc.).

I enjoyed by time in the Netherlands and Belgium a couple of years ago, though I didn't go to Molonbeek. I should have.

What issues of general behavior are people complaining about?

I'm anti-Trump, but I think improved vetting makes sense. I wish that the west could somehow eventually help to rebuild their home countries so that the migrants can return in time. Or I should say, make it safe, then they can help rebuild their countries. Must be hard on these people to feel like they have to leave their homelands and adapt to a new culture (western secular societies built on liberal values) that must be very alien to some of them.

Edited by Logan - February 20 2017 at 18:34

Pff that's some twisted logic, Obama has gone to war with extremist terrorists, Trump is obstructing the millions of non-extremists trying to flee from a small group that is trying to KILL them.
Also, the rapefugee thing is deluded, please come to Europe, come see for yourself on the streets here in the Netherlands, the poorest corners with the most immigrants, countries with 10 times as many Muslims per capita as the US, see for yourself how completely harmless and safe it is instead trampling over the same single contrived statistic. People complaining about Muslims here are complaining about general behavior, not crime, since that simply hasn't increased in any significant way.