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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 03 2008 at 16:39
Even in Moscow right now there are a lot of fat cats sitting at home drinking cheap vodka and contemplating suicide.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 03 2008 at 16:21

Quote of the Day

"The economy has gotten so bad, Cheney 
  is having his stock broker water-boarded."
       -- Letterman

The New York Times has a long story today about the disastrous 2004 change to the SEC’s “net capital rule.” The rule change allowed America’s five largest investment banks to greatly increase their leverage ratios, from 12-1 to as much as 40-1. All five investment banks have since either collapsed or transformed themselves into commercial banks.

The Times story mentions that “The five investment banks led the charge [to change the rule], including Goldman Sachs, which was headed by Henry M. Paulson Jr. Two years later, he left to become Treasury secretary.”

However, the story does NOT mention Paulson’s 2000 testimony to the SEC, which I posted yesterday. In it, Paulson specifically lobbied the SEC to make the net capital rule change:

[W]e and other global firms have, for many years, urged the SEC to reform its net capital rule to allow for more efficient use of capital. This is the single most important factor in driving significant parts of our business offshore, so that our firms can remain competitive with our foreign competitors risk-based capital standards must become the norm.

In the same testimony, Paulson also called on the SEC to change to more “voluntary regulation”—exactly what the SEC chair Christopher Cox now says “does not work.” (No kidding.)

Here are some relevant sections from today’s Times story, although it’s well worth reading it all:

Many events in Washington, on Wall Street and elsewhere around the country have led to what has been called the most serious financial crisis since the 1930s. But decisions made at a brief meeting on April 28, 2004, explain why the problems could spin out of control…

On that bright spring afternoon, the five members of the Securities and Exchange Commission met in a basement hearing room to consider an urgent plea by the big investment banks.

They wanted an exemption for their brokerage units from an old regulation that limited the amount of debt they could take on. The exemption would unshackle billions of dollars held in reserve as a cushion against losses on their investments.

The five investment banks led the charge, including Goldman Sachs, which was headed by Henry M. Paulson Jr…

The decision, changing what was known as the net capital rule, was completed and published in The Federal Register a few months later.

With that, the five big independent investment firms were unleashed.

In loosening the capital rules, which are supposed to provide a buffer in turbulent times, the agency also decided to rely on the firms’ own computer models for determining the riskiness of investments, essentially outsourcing the job of monitoring risk to the banks themselves.

Uncategorized | -->

posted by Jonathan Schwarz at 8:04 AM | link
Jonathan Schwarz:

Back in 2000, when Hank Paulson was CEO of Goldman Sachs, he testified in front of the Security and Exchange Commission. Among other things, he lobbied the SEC to enact a “change to self-regulation” for Wall Street. He also urged them to change the “net capital rule” which governed the amount of leverage investment banks could use. The net capital rule was indeed changed in 2004, and is now blamed for the investment banks’ collapse.

PAULSON: The Challenge of Technology and Change to Self-Regulation in the United States

The third area for re-examination and reform is the structure of broker/dealer regulation, a function now shared by the SEC and the self regulatory organizations (”SROs”), principally the New York Stock Exchange and NASD Regulation Inc.

[W]e and other global firms have, for many years, urged the SEC to reform its net capital rule to allow for more efficient use of capital. This is the single most important factor in driving significant parts of our business offshore, so that our firms can remain competitive with our foreign competitors risk-based capital standards must become the norm. The SEC has made it clear that risk-based capital rules can be implemented only when the Commission is confident that firms employing value-at-risk models have robust credit and risk management policies in place.

For these reasons we think it is time to seriously consider the creation of a single, independent SRO to adopt, examine and enforce a core body of financial responsibility, customer protection and margin rules. We hope and expect that there would be savings generated by economies of scale.

How did Paulson’s recommendation to let investment banks borrow much, much more work out?

Here’s a story from two weeks ago:

The Securities and Exchange Commission can blame itself for the current crisis. That is the allegation being made by a former SEC official, Lee Pickard, who says a rule change in 2004 led to the failure of Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, and Merrill Lynch.

The SEC allowed five firms — the three that have collapsed plus Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley — to more than double the leverage they were allowed to keep on their balance sheets and remove discounts that had been applied to the assets they had been required to keep to protect them from defaults…

The so-called net capital rule was created in 1975 to allow the SEC to oversee broker-dealers…The net capital rule also requires that broker dealers limit their debt-to-net capital ratio to 12-to-1…

In 2004, the European Union passed a rule allowing the SEC’s European counterpart to manage the risk both of broker dealers and their investment banking holding companies. In response, the SEC instituted a similar, voluntary program for broker dealers with capital of at least $5 billion, enabling the agency to oversee both the broker dealers and the holding companies.

This alternative approach, which all five broker-dealers that qualified — Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley — voluntarily joined, altered the way the SEC measured their capital. Using computerized models, the SEC, under its new Consolidated Supervised Entities program, allowed the broker dealers to increase their debt-to-net-capital ratios, sometimes, as in the case of Merrill Lynch, to as high as 40-to-1. It also removed the method for applying haircuts, relying instead on another math-based model for calculating risk that led to a much smaller discount.

Who murdered the American economy? It was the CEO, in the 13th Floor Conference Room, with the Prepared Testimony.

Uncategorized | -->

posted by Jonathan Schwarz at 9:32 AM | link




Edited by Slartibartfast - October 03 2008 at 16:34
Released date are often when it it impacted you but recorded dates are when it really happened...

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 02 2008 at 13:44
it is pretty much the same, as far as I know. but don't quote me; I am definitely not an expert, so I may be totally wrong. I will, however, ask an expert about it


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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 02 2008 at 13:38
Originally posted by BaldJean BaldJean wrote:

IVNORD, they are not special warrants. "Optionsschein" is the literary translation of "warrant" there is nothing said about who issues them at all in the statement, only who distributes them. that's a difference
 
Jean, I meant they may not be the same thing as US warrants. Financial instruments vary from country to country. If "distributes" means "sells initially" in the US it's done by stock underwriters usually in connection with an initial public offering (IPO) of a company going public. The warrants are bundled with common stock in so-called units sold to investors. After the IPO the warrants are separated from the units and are trading on various stock exchanges until expiration

Edited by IVNORD - October 02 2008 at 13:45
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 02 2008 at 13:22
IVNORD, they are not special warrants. "Optionsschein" is the literary translation of "stock purchase warrant". there is nothing said about who issues them at all in the statement, only who distributes them. that's a difference


Edited by BaldJean - October 02 2008 at 13:43


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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 02 2008 at 11:54
Originally posted by MikeEnRegalia MikeEnRegalia wrote:

^ you also have to distinguish warrants and futures. Warrants are risky, but the worst that can happen is that you lose your investment (they become worthless). With futures you can actually lose arbitrary amounts of money ... same as when you short sell stocks.
Futures combine stocks and options features. Since they tied to a commodity their price may fluctuate with the price of the commodity. As a contract they guarantee you a delivery/disposal of the commodity at a set price on a set date. You may lose money if you are long the contract and the underlying commodity goes down (or vice versa short/up), but if you hedge as either producer or user of the commodity and the price is right for you, you don't care.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 02 2008 at 11:43
Originally posted by BaldJean BaldJean wrote:

Originally posted by IVNORD IVNORD wrote:

Originally posted by BaldJean BaldJean wrote:

I know it is not an obligation. but you are missing the point completely. you pay for an option you may not use. that in itself is ludicrous.
In essence, a warrant is an insurance. When you buy a car insurance, you hope to never use it, but you pay a risk premium for the luxury of having protection if something bad happens.
Originally posted by BaldJean BaldJean wrote:

what's more, these warrants have been the cause of more bankruptcies than any other kind of stocks.
I've never heard of warrants per se being a major cause of bankrupcy. To the contrary, a company benefits from issuing warrants by collecting the premium from the sale of the warrants first, and then collecting the principal from the exercise of the warrants.
Originally posted by BaldJean BaldJean wrote:

it is also remarkable how far we are drifting away from what this is all about here. we are dealing with symbols of symbols of symbols. let me explain: money is a symbol for the value of something. a share is a symbol for the value of a firm in money, hence a symbol of a symbol. yet we are not even dealing with actual shares here, we are dealing with options for buying them. a symbol of a symbol of a symbol. no wonder stock brokers lose the touch for what they are actually dealing with!
If you go to the bottom of it to the fact that money represents goods and how the supply chain works, that symbol will be in the power of 10 or 20. But stock brokers are not privy to such math intricacies. They deal with dollars and cents.

I am no expert on matters like the stock market. however, one thing I do know though is that these warrants are considered to be very risky. I have heard this several times, and the wikipedia entry seems to agree with me:
"Da Optionsscheine Derivate sind und deshalb als besonders risikoreiche Anlageform erachtet werden, bestehen für die vertreibenden Banken gegenüber ihren Kunden besondere Informationspflichten (siehe Derivate im deutschen Rechtssystem)." Translation: "Since warrants are derivatives and hence are being considered an especially risky type of investment, there do exist special obligations of information towards their customers for the banks distributing them" (see "derivatives in the German legal system").
Those are likely some special warrants since they're distributed specifically by banks. In the US any company may issue warrants so the only way it may become especially risky is when you sell them short. Other than that all you can lose is the price of the warrant you pay.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 02 2008 at 10:37
^ you also have to distinguish warrants and futures. Warrants are risky, but the worst that can happen is that you lose your investment (they become worthless). With futures you can actually lose arbitrary amounts of money ... same as when you short sell stocks.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 02 2008 at 09:07
Originally posted by IVNORD IVNORD wrote:

Originally posted by BaldJean BaldJean wrote:

I know it is not an obligation. but you are missing the point completely. you pay for an option you may not use. that in itself is ludicrous.
In essence, a warrant is an insurance. When you buy a car insurance, you hope to never use it, but you pay a risk premium for the luxury of having protection if something bad happens.
Originally posted by BaldJean BaldJean wrote:

what's more, these warrants have been the cause of more bankruptcies than any other kind of stocks.
I've never heard of warrants per se being a major cause of bankrupcy. To the contrary, a company benefits from issuing warrants by collecting the premium from the sale of the warrants first, and then collecting the principal from the exercise of the warrants.
Originally posted by BaldJean BaldJean wrote:

it is also remarkable how far we are drifting away from what this is all about here. we are dealing with symbols of symbols of symbols. let me explain: money is a symbol for the value of something. a share is a symbol for the value of a firm in money, hence a symbol of a symbol. yet we are not even dealing with actual shares here, we are dealing with options for buying them. a symbol of a symbol of a symbol. no wonder stock brokers lose the touch for what they are actually dealing with!
If you go to the bottom of it to the fact that money represents goods and how the supply chain works, that symbol will be in the power of 10 or 20. But stock brokers are not privy to such math intricacies. They deal with dollars and cents.

I am no expert on matters like the stock market. however, one thing I do know though is that these warrants are considered to be very risky. I have heard this several times, and the wikipedia entry seems to agree with me:
"Da Optionsscheine Derivate sind und deshalb als besonders risikoreiche Anlageform erachtet werden, bestehen für die vertreibenden Banken gegenüber ihren Kunden besondere Informationspflichten (siehe Derivate im deutschen Rechtssystem)." Translation: "Since warrants are derivatives and hence are being considered an especially risky type of investment, there do exist special obligations of information towards their customers for the banks distributing them" (see "derivatives in the German legal system").


Edited by BaldJean - October 02 2008 at 09:26


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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 02 2008 at 08:17
Wow, 8 pages so far.  Will this thread accurately predict by pages the numbers of billions the bailout will ultimately cost? LOL




Edited by Slartibartfast - October 02 2008 at 08:42
Released date are often when it it impacted you but recorded dates are when it really happened...

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 02 2008 at 08:12
Originally posted by BaldJean BaldJean wrote:

I know it is not an obligation. but you are missing the point completely. you pay for an option you may not use. that in itself is ludicrous.
In essence, a warrant is an insurance. When you buy a car insurance, you hope to never use it, but you pay a risk premium for the luxury of having protection if something bad happens.
Originally posted by BaldJean BaldJean wrote:

what's more, these warrants have been the cause of more bankruptcies than any other kind of stocks.
I've never heard of warrants per se being a major cause of bankrupcy. To the contrary, a company benefits from issuing warrants by collecting the premium from the sale of the warrants first, and then collecting the principal from the exercise of the warrants.
Originally posted by BaldJean BaldJean wrote:

it is also remarkable how far we are drifting away from what this is all about here. we are dealing with symbols of symbols of symbols. let me explain: money is a symbol for the value of something. a share is a symbol for the value of a firm in money, hence a symbol of a symbol. yet we are not even dealing with actual shares here, we are dealing with options for buying them. a symbol of a symbol of a symbol. no wonder stock brokers lose the touch for what they are actually dealing with!
If you go to the bottom of it to the fact that money represents goods and how the supply chain works, that symbol will be in the power of 10 or 20. But stock brokers are not privy to such math intricacies. They deal with dollars and cents.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 01 2008 at 23:28
Originally posted by IVNORD IVNORD wrote:

Originally posted by BaldJean BaldJean wrote:

Originally posted by IVNORD IVNORD wrote:

Originally posted by BaldJean BaldJean wrote:

well, if the whole system can only be saved that way then something is wrong with the system in the first place, so why should we save it then? better an end with terror than a terror without end.
The system is certainly flawed, but since we don't have a better one, living with no system at all may result in terror with no end in sight. And it stares us in the face already.
 
Originally posted by BaldJean BaldJean wrote:


and I totally agree that the financial industry should be regulated somehow. the games they have been playing lately are simply idiotic. stock purchase warrants, for example; a completely nutty idea. they should definitely be forbidden, in my opinion
Why did you single oout stock purchase warrants? It's a completely innocent idea (unless it's different in Germany; in the US, a stock warrant allows its holder to purchase a certain number of shares at a set price within a specified period of time).

that's the point: at a set price. it is mere gambling, since you don't know the actual price of the stocks at the given date. it is not innocent at all. buy the stocks when the price is known. would you go into a shop and say "I want to buy a computer with these features", giving a list of them, "for $1500 in 2 months"? nonsense; you will go and look at the prices of computers in two months, when you actually want to buy it
THe warrant is not an obligation but an option to buy and you don't have to pay the exercise price upfront, a warrant usually costs relatively little. It's more like an insurance policy. The exercise price is usually, but not always, set below the current or projected market price. If the exercise price is higher than the market price at the warrant's expiration time you can forfeit it. You may not exercise it at all even if it's in-the-money. The warrant is of the same nature as stock options and futures contracts and can be used for hedging. There's plenty of abuse with warrants when the big guys short the stock to cover thru the exercise but it's a different story. Otherwise the idea isn't that bad at all. If you think that the computer with these features will cost $2000 in 2 months, you'd better buy yourself a warrant with a $1500 strike.

I know it is not an obligation. but you are missing the point completely. you pay for an option you may not use. that in itself is ludicrous. what's more, these warrants have been the cause of more bankruptcies than any other kind of stocks. it is also remarkable how far we are drifting away from what this is all about here. we are dealing with symbols of symbols of symbols. let me explain: money is a symbol for the value of something. a share is a symbol for the value of a firm in money, hence a symbol of a symbol. yet we are not even dealing with actual shares here, we are dealing with options for buying them. a symbol of a symbol of a symbol. no wonder stock brokers lose the touch for what they are actually dealing with!


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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 01 2008 at 22:18
Originally posted by debrewguy debrewguy wrote:

First the capitalists proclaim that the markets must be free from government intervention, that they will self-regulate. The government re-states this as an obvious truth.
Then capitalists exclaim that they need government intervention so as to avoid a  major financial cataclysm, that they were somehow unable to see coming, or understand why it happened. The government re-states the urgency of the need to "save" the financial industry as if the alternative was worse.
The capitalists are the government.
Originally posted by debrewguy debrewguy wrote:


No delay can be considered to take time to review & analyze the situation, present possible options (including no government bailout or intervention) before going into action.
There will be a credit crunch no matter what. If the U.S. government borrows $700 billion (many are saying that will quickly balloon to over a trillion), that will in effect, take away from credit that might otherwise be available to the common man and the corporation. And claiming that you will sell zero value assets later at a profit is to base your plan on a dream that those who currently hold these investments clearly believe is not going to happen any time soon. Else, there would be someone looking to buy them. At some price, eh.
So bend over, and hope the next time the financial industry needs to be saved from itself, that this bill will have been paid. "Cause it is not certain that the U.S. has gotten over the S & L mess.
They are not zero value assets. Those people who bought $30b worth of MBS from Merryl for 22 cents on the dollar will definitely get the full dollar and a bit more back. It'll take time though. Those assets are wrthless today because everybody needs to sell them to show cash on their books and potential buyers know that the urgency will dictate even lower prices. With the limitlessly deep pockets of the US government the fire sale can be "extinguished." If the deal is done properly we may even realise a profit here. THe way the S&L worked out, nearly break even
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 01 2008 at 22:11

US Senate approved the 'package'.... orders for the new Bugatti Veyron Pur Sang will increase tomorrow: Confused

 
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 01 2008 at 22:06
Originally posted by BaldJean BaldJean wrote:

Originally posted by IVNORD IVNORD wrote:

Originally posted by BaldJean BaldJean wrote:

well, if the whole system can only be saved that way then something is wrong with the system in the first place, so why should we save it then? better an end with terror than a terror without end.
The system is certainly flawed, but since we don't have a better one, living with no system at all may result in terror with no end in sight. And it stares us in the face already.
 
Originally posted by BaldJean BaldJean wrote:


and I totally agree that the financial industry should be regulated somehow. the games they have been playing lately are simply idiotic. stock purchase warrants, for example; a completely nutty idea. they should definitely be forbidden, in my opinion
Why did you single oout stock purchase warrants? It's a completely innocent idea (unless it's different in Germany; in the US, a stock warrant allows its holder to purchase a certain number of shares at a set price within a specified period of time).

that's the point: at a set price. it is mere gambling, since you don't know the actual price of the stocks at the given date. it is not innocent at all. buy the stocks when the price is known. would you go into a shop and say "I want to buy a computer with these features", giving a list of them, "for $1500 in 2 months"? nonsense; you will go and look at the prices of computers in two months, when you actually want to buy it
THe warrant is not an obligation but an option to buy and you don't have to pay the exercise price upfront, a warrant usually costs relatively little. It's more like an insurance policy. The exercise price is usually, but not always, set below the current or projected market price. If the exercise price is higher than the market price at the warrant's expiration time you can forfeit it. You may not exercise it at all even if it's in-the-money. The warrant is of the same nature as stock options and futures contracts and can be used for hedging. There's plenty of abuse with warrants when the big guys short the stock to cover thru the exercise but it's a different story. Otherwise the idea isn't that bad at all. If you think that the computer with these features will cost $2000 in 2 months, you'd better buy yourself a warrant with a $1500 strike.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 01 2008 at 20:34
First the capitalists proclaim that the markets must be free from government intervention, that they will self-regulate. The government re-states this as an obvious truth.
Then capitalists exclaim that they need government intervention so as to avoid a  major financial cataclysm, that they were somehow unable to see coming, or understand why it happened. The government re-states the urgency of the need to "save" the financial industry as if the alternative was worse.
No delay can be considered to take time to review & analyze the situation, present possible options (including no government bailout or intervention) before going into action.
There will be a credit crunch no matter what. If the U.S. government borrows $700 billion (many are saying that will quickly balloon to over a trillion), that will in effect, take away from credit that might otherwise be available to the common man and the corporation. And claiming that you will sell zero value assets later at a profit is to base your plan on a dream that those who currently hold these investments clearly believe is not going to happen any time soon. Else, there would be someone looking to buy them. At some price, eh.
So bend over, and hope the next time the financial industry needs to be saved from itself, that this bill will have been paid. "Cause it is not certain that the U.S. has gotten over the S & L mess.
"Here I am talking to some of the smartest people in the world and I didn't even notice,” Lieutenant Columbo, episode The Bye-Bye Sky-High I.Q. Murder Case.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 01 2008 at 20:24
Originally posted by IVNORD IVNORD wrote:

Originally posted by BaldJean BaldJean wrote:

well, if the whole system can only be saved that way then something is wrong with the system in the first place, so why should we save it then? better an end with terror than a terror without end.
The system is certainly flawed, but since we don't have a better one, living with no system at all may result in terror with no end in sight. And it stares us in the face already.
 
Originally posted by BaldJean BaldJean wrote:


and I totally agree that the financial industry should be regulated somehow. the games they have been playing lately are simply idiotic. stock purchase warrants, for example; a completely nutty idea. they should definitely be forbidden, in my opinion
Why did you single oout stock purchase warrants? It's a completely innocent idea (unless it's different in Germany; in the US, a stock warrant allows its holder to purchase a certain number of shares at a set price within a specified period of time).

that's the point: at a set price. it is mere gambling, since you don't know the actual price of the stocks at the given date. it is not innocent at all. buy the stocks when the price is known. would you go into a shop and say "I want to buy a computer with these features", giving a list of them, "for $1500 in 2 months"? nonsense; you will go and look at the prices of computers in two months, when you actually want to buy it


Edited by BaldJean - October 01 2008 at 20:29


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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 01 2008 at 20:11
Originally posted by BaldJean BaldJean wrote:

well, if the whole system can only be saved that way then something is wrong with the system in the first place, so why should we save it then? better an end with terror than a terror without end.
The system is certainly flawed, but since we don't have a better one, living with no system at all may result in terror with no end in sight. And it stares us in the face already.
 
Originally posted by BaldJean BaldJean wrote:


and I totally agree that the financial industry should be regulated somehow. the games they have been playing lately are simply idiotic. stock purchase warrants, for example; a completely nutty idea. they should definitely be forbidden, in my opinion
Why did you single oout stock purchase warrants? It's a completely innocent idea (unless it's different in Germany; in the US, a stock warrant allows its holder to purchase a certain number of shares at a set price within a specified period of time).
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 01 2008 at 19:56
well, if the whole system can only be saved that way then something is wrong with the system in the first place, so why should we save it then? better an end with terror than a terror without end.
and I totally agree that the financial industry should be regulated somehow. the games they have been playing lately are simply idiotic. stock purchase warrants, for example; a completely nutty idea. they should definitely be forbidden, in my opinion


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Direct Link To This Post Posted: October 01 2008 at 19:48
Originally posted by BaldJean BaldJean wrote:

a bailout would be more costly. it won't stop at these $700 billion. once a precedence is set it would have to be done again and again. or what argument could a government come up with if it didn't? no, we should make it clear to the banks once and for all that they don't have a free ticket to do whatever they want with people's money. if they don't act responsibly then they have to carry the consequences.
also, do we believe in capitalism or do we not? if we do, a bailout is impossible. if we don't, we should better think up some other rules then, and quickly
Of course $700 won't be enough, but it's a matter of saving the entire system, in my view. The financial industry should be regulated heavily and, as a result of the current events, most likely will be. Unfortunately they have too much power to bend it their own way, so there's no guarantee it will stick. They may re-write the rules again, the way they did during the Clinton era.
 
As for capitalism, it is socialized in such a profound way that I don't know any longer what to believe in LOLLOL
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