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Topic ClosedIs the Middle East going to war?

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Blacksword View Drop Down
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 28 2006 at 15:36
Originally posted by NetsNJFan NetsNJFan wrote:

^ Blackie, I don't think the Int'l community should play no role in this, just not the UN.  I basically support the Quartet and the road map, which both sides scream about but neither follows.



 

If Sharon were still running things this operation would have happened months ago.  He was a military man who didn't care about western opinion -- Olmert is the opposite.


Does Olmert really care about western opinion? I dont know much about him, I must admit.

Why is all this happening now? Our media has not really given any coverage to the other points you mentioned; troops on Egyptian border etc. Now I read that, I'm inclined to think this may be the start of something bigger.

I always thought the road map was something of a red herring, even when Sharon ordered the dismantleing of the West Bank settlements last year, I assumed it was just political manouvering. Things seem to be going backwards.

According to our media, the kidnapping seems to be at the core of this. I wish no harm on this young soldier, but the Israeli reaction seems to be overkill.
    
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 28 2006 at 15:28
^ Blackie, I don't think the Int'l community should play no role in this, just not the UN.  I basically support the Quartet and the road map, which both sides scream about but neither follows.
 
If Sharon were still running things this operation would have happened months ago.  He was a military man who didn't care about western opinion -- Olmert is the opposite.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 28 2006 at 15:07
This is a worrying development. As you say no reaction from the US or EU as yet, but they cant stay silent on this for much longer.

My hope is that this will cool off and not escalate into something far bigger. My gut feeling is that may be the case.

I hope the Palestinians release the young soldier they kidnapped, but I have a bad feeling about his well being. I feel also he may be being used as a politcal tool, and an excuse by the new Israeli PM to flex some muscle, and show how hardline he is in dealing with terrorism. I think this is a bad move by Israel, which could ultimately end up with this young man losing his life. The Israeli government must step back from the brink and pressure Mabbas - who has condemned the kidnapping - to work to secure his release.

Is the ME about to explode? Well, the propheteers claim this is the year where it will all 'kick off' Lets hope they're wrong. Things do seem to be moving very much in the wrong direction since Sharon left the shop. Not that I'm a huge fan of Sharon, but the new guy in town appears to be frothing at the mouth.

It's worth remembering that there is great deal of dischord among Palestinian factions. This must be capitilised on by Israel and the west to avoid further bloodshed on both sides.

I know wat you think of the UN, Nets, but I really think the international community should be doing everything they can to bring both sides to the table, and recognise how serious this could be.
    

Edited by Blacksword - June 28 2006 at 15:09
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 28 2006 at 14:51
Update:

Syria is claiming it fired at the IAF jets, causing them to disperse. 
 
Uncomfirmed by IDF.
 
I doubt it though, Syria always says they've done stuff they haven't to look strong for their people.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 28 2006 at 14:42
Crimson:  as of now, Israelis have not moved into any built up areas, only open areas, as a buffer with Israel proper.  Urban warfare is a nightmare for both sides.  So far no reported casualties, but that's so far.
 
When the attacks are coming from the militant half of the PA ruling party, I think it's more than just petty criminals.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 28 2006 at 14:38
I predict that as usual innocent human beings will killed on both "sides". To think that this area is still a powder-keg in the 21st Century nauseates me. Who the heck wants to live like that in constant fear? The people who allow this to continue are not civilised people.Dead

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 28 2006 at 14:35

What exactly, one wonders, are the Israeli tamks & troops to attack? All that the Palestinians have is people.....and houses. (Obviously they won't attack any of the major states in the region.) So, they'll look bad in the eyes of the world, kill a few Palestinians, destroy many houses, and perpetuate the hatred that the Palestinians have for Israel. Which is probably what they want, as it provides an excuse for never sanctioning a Palestinian state. Still, look on the bright side, it's US tax dollars that is paying for all the hardware on display........Wink

The basic problem, though, is that Israel is making the same mistake as as the US currently is - using military tactics to deal with a few criminals.

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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 28 2006 at 14:31
They are all dancing on a powder keg over there.
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Direct Link To This Post Posted: June 28 2006 at 14:08
Possibly:
 
1.  Israel took out a Gaza strip power transformer and several bridges, while Israeli troops have begun reoccupying the southern Gaza Strip (near Rafah), in response to thousands of Qassam attacks on border towns the kidnapping of an Israeli soldier within the 1967 lines.  This kidnapping's responsibilty was partially claimed by Hamas's military wing.  This is the largest military operation Israel has launched, since Operation Defensive Shield, when it re-occupied the West Bank, in 2002.  Amir Peretz, the Israeli MoD (who looks like Stalin) just authorized the IDF to move into northern Gaza, near Gaza City.
 
2.  Israel has made several "flyovers" of Bashar el Assad (Syria) compound, low enough to create sonic booms, to pressure him to release Khaled Meshaal, the "real" boss of Hamas.
 
3.  Israel has all but declared war on the Palestinian Authority: saying that the Gaza strip is foreign soil ruled by a foreign government committed to its destruction which has made recent attacks againt Israel, climaxing in the kidnap of the soldier for ransom. 
 
4.  Jordan and Egypt have been working furiously to defuse the situation, since they would be caught in a precarious position should there be another Arab-Israeli war.  Similarly, Mahmoud Abbas, the PA prez, is also workign frantically behind the scenes to have the hostage released, since he knows if he doesn't this is the end of his relevance.
 
5.  Egypt has mobilised its troops along the Gaza border, to prevent refugees and the hostage from being transferred to Egypt.
 
6.  The wildcards here are the US and EU, as of yet no reaction, though it's coming.
 
I think this will eventually cool off regarding other states in the ME, because this isn't the 60's and 70's, and they've learned to put self-interest over Ideology (for the most part), but this is wothout doubt the nadir of Israeli-Palestinian relations over the last 4 years.  Nonetheless, I'm very worried. 
 
So, MTS, Blacksword, AALFW, all the others, what are your predictions:
 
(note:  this thread isn't about criticizing, both sides have their faults, it's about predicting what the situation will becomeWink)
 
 


Edited by NetsNJFan - June 28 2006 at 14:14
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