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Garion81 
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 Posted: August 28 2009 at 12:59 |
^ I agree they don't play against each other enough to warrant regular season stats being meaningful especially since they were done in June. Besides most teams are built to win against their division since this where they play half of their games.
The Dodgers haven't collapsed. I mean they are 1 game over 500 since the allstar break. Not stellar obviously but it isn't a huge issue yet. This was more about Colorado winning than it was the Dodgers losing. The question is will the Dodgers continue to play mediocre and will Colorado keep wining like they are? As I said earlier the most telling thing here is the Rockies have had this winning streak against mostly sub .500 teams while the Dodgers have been playing mostly teams with winning records. This reverses in Sept. a bit. The Dodgers have 12 games in row against the Reds, Snakes and Padres coming up. In fact they only have 9 games left with teams with winning records (3-Colo-6 SF) The Rockies last week of the year is killer they end up with the Cardinals, Brewers and Dodgers.
As for Kershaw he is really developing. He does walk a few although that has been improving as the season has gone on. If he stays healthy this guys is really going to be special. His ERA is now 2.96 btw. Wolf has pitched really well his last 4 -5 starts. With those two left handers as well as Kuo and Sherrill as left handers out to the bullpen it makes teams be honest with their lineups.
Still a month left long time to go. This is where it gets interesting. 
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"What are you going to do when that damn thing rusts?"
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Negoba
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Posted: August 28 2009 at 13:13 |
We Cardinal fans are feeling very cautiousless happy right now. We of all fanbases know anything can happen in the post season, but things are looking good right now. Picking up Holliday was enormous.
From experience, I wouldn't feel very confident hanging too much on Jason Marquis. That guy....losing Suppan was a blow for us. Marquis I was more than glad to see gone.
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You are quite a fine person, and I am very fond of you. But you are only quite a little fellow, in a wide world, after all.
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crimhead
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Posted: August 28 2009 at 14:21 |
 Negoba wrote:
We Cardinal fans are feeling very cautiousless happy right now. We of all fanbases know anything can happen in the post season, but things are looking good right now. Picking up Holliday was enormous.
From experience, I wouldn't feel very confident hanging too much on Jason Marquis. That guy....losing Suppan was a blow for us. Marquis I was more than glad to see gone. |
They're already talking about giving Smoltz $5M next year.
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Negoba
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Joined: July 24 2008
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Posted: August 28 2009 at 14:23 |
Better worry about keeping Holliday first.
Smoltz has pitched, what, 5 innings for us so far?
Edited by Negoba - August 28 2009 at 14:24
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You are quite a fine person, and I am very fond of you. But you are only quite a little fellow, in a wide world, after all.
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crimhead
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Posted: August 28 2009 at 14:30 |
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^ I guess they're more worried about their 4th and 5th pitcher than offense at the moment. The BrewCrew is pulling a Pittsburgh at the moment. Total rebuild on their part.
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rileydog22
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Posted: August 28 2009 at 16:56 |
Equality 7-2521 wrote:
The Phillies have had success against Chad. Granted it's a small sample size, but still I like the match up. I don't think the Wolf over Kershaw is such a crazy suggestion on my part. Kershaw obviously strikes out more, but has a bad tendency to litter walks, which Wolf doesn't have. Actually if you compare the two by VORP Kershaw posts a 40.7 compared to Wolf's 40.4. |
I've never been a VORP guy, partially because BPro has been slowly dying as I've become more interested in the advanced statistical side of things. WAR (Wins Above Replacement, via Fangraphs) seem to be becoming the sabermetric go-to stat, and Clayton's got Wolf beat 3.5 wins to 2.6. Clayton's also got a big tRA edge, 3.5 vs 4.27.
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Equality 7-2521
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Posted: August 29 2009 at 15:30 |
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I'm not currently a huge fan of the WAR over VORP in most circumstances. I'm actually not familiar with TRA what is it?
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"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "
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rileydog22
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Posted: August 29 2009 at 21:02 |
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tRA is a defense-independent pitching statistic which, unlike other fielding-independent stats like FIP, takes batted ball breakdown into account. Basically, it gives a pitcher a certain amount of credit for each event--strikeout, walk, ground ball, line drive, pop-up, or fly ball, based on the specific run value of each event. This entirely removes the impact of the defense behind the pitcher and to a large degree removes luck.
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crimhead
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Posted: August 30 2009 at 12:08 |
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The Buccos have lost 20 in a row at Miller Park, dating back to 2007. I love a team that is rebuilding every year.
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Equality 7-2521
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Posted: August 30 2009 at 17:24 |
rileydog22 wrote:
tRA is a defense-independent pitching statistic which, unlike other fielding-independent stats like FIP, takes batted ball breakdown into account. Basically, it gives a pitcher a certain amount of credit for each event--strikeout, walk, ground ball, line drive, pop-up, or fly ball, based on the specific run value of each event. This entirely removes the impact of the defense behind the pitcher and to a large degree removes luck.
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Oh ok that rings a bell now I've heard it mentioned before I'm thinking. It does seem like a superior stat to VORP.
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"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "
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Garion81
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Posted: August 31 2009 at 14:10 |
Hmmm I guess if your into fantasy baseball these starts are important but just being a fan I don't care. ERA is close enough for me to know how well a starting pitcher is pitching overall. Batting average and walks for relievers that are not closers is a pretty good stat to follow since a lot of times relievers inherit other pitchers runners.
Dodgers seem to have righted the ship. 7 out of the last 10.
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mr.cub
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Posted: August 31 2009 at 14:14 |
Negoba wrote:
We Cardinal fans are feeling very cautiousless happy right now. We of all fanbases know anything can happen in the post season, but things are looking good right now. Picking up Holliday was enormous.
From experience, I wouldn't feel very confident hanging too much on Jason Marquis. That guy....losing Suppan was a blow for us. Marquis I was more than glad to see gone. |
I would feel estatic if I were a Cardinal fan. In two to three weeks they've seperated themselves from the Cubs by 10 games and have made a strong case as best ballclub in NL. I'd wouldn't feel worried about the playoffs...history is on your side with a pitching duo like Wainwright and Carpenter
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Negoba
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Posted: August 31 2009 at 14:18 |
mr.cub wrote:
Negoba wrote:
We Cardinal fans are feeling very cautiousless happy right now. We of all fanbases know anything can happen in the post season, but things are looking good right now. Picking up Holliday was enormous.
From experience, I wouldn't feel very confident hanging too much on Jason Marquis. That guy....losing Suppan was a blow for us. Marquis I was more than glad to see gone. |
I would feel estatic if I were a Cardinal fan. In two to three weeks they've seperated themselves from the Cubs by 10 games and have made a strong case as best ballclub in NL. I'd wouldn't feel worried about the playoffs...history is on your side with a pitching duo like Wainwright and Carpenter |
Unfortunately, history tells us wierd things. 2004 we had perhaps the best team in baseball, caught a suddenly hot Red Sox team and got posterized. 2006, we had one of the worst collapses in the second half in history and yet limped it to a title.
But you're right, pitching wins championships and if our guys are healthy we have as good a chance as anyone.
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You are quite a fine person, and I am very fond of you. But you are only quite a little fellow, in a wide world, after all.
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Equality 7-2521
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Posted: August 31 2009 at 18:17 |
Garion81 wrote:
Hmmm I guess if your into fantasy baseball these starts are important but just being a fan I don't care. ERA is close enough for me to know how well a starting pitcher is pitching overall. Batting average and walks for relievers that are not closers is a pretty good stat to follow since a lot of times relievers inherit other pitchers runners.
Dodgers seem to have righted the ship. 7 out of the last 10.
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But it really doesn't tell you anything about putting your team in positions to win games or not. Of course as a fan you don't need any stats for your team really, but ERA as the primary pitching stat is the primary reason pitchers appear so erratic from season to season.
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"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "
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rileydog22
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Posted: September 01 2009 at 19:28 |
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ERA is WAY too dependent on defense and luck.
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crimhead
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Posted: September 02 2009 at 01:10 |
rileydog22 wrote:
ERA is WAY too dependent on defense and luck.
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and the umpire's strike zone. Some have a wide zones.
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crimhead
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Posted: September 02 2009 at 12:42 |
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6 losses in a row now. They benched Doumit.
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Equality 7-2521
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Posted: September 02 2009 at 13:32 |
crimhead wrote:
rileydog22 wrote:
ERA is WAY too dependent on defense and luck.
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and the umpire's strike zone. Some have a wide zones.
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Not to mention the first RA is much more important than the 25th RA, but ERA treats all runs equal.
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"One had to be a Newton to notice that the moon is falling, when everyone sees that it doesn't fall. "
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crimhead
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Posted: September 02 2009 at 14:17 |
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So Garrett Jones hit Pittsburgh's 10,000 HR in the franchises history. That made them the 14th out of 16 pre-expansion teams to do so. I wonder what took them so long. IF they still had roid boy Bonds they would have reached it 5 years earlier.
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Garion81
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Posted: September 02 2009 at 15:41 |
rileydog 22 wrote:
ERA is WAY too dependent on defense and luck. |
Since it only concerns earned runs I disagree. Baseball is a team game and a pitcher does not get 3 outs on their own. ERA does not include runs caused by errors on the defense so it is a good measure of what the pitcher does when his defense is good. A pitcher with a consistent lower ERA over time is much more wanted than a pitcher that doesn't.
As for luck name one pitcher that didn't have luck factor in to his results good or bad. How do you account for umpire bias or incompentence? (Think Greg Maddux never got calls other guys didn't?) A player swinging at a pitch out of the strike zone? A ball hitting a pebble and taking a bad bounce. Your telling me there is a stat that handles all of these things?!?
In a simple example. Name any starting pitcher who's ERA really doesn't reflect his performance over lets say at least 10 starts? If a guy has an ERA of 4.5+ and his record is 10-5 you can surmise he gets good run support and gets into trouble a couple of times a game. If has a 2.5 ERA and is 5-10 you can assume he doesn't. Which guy would you trade for? Or how about the guy who is 2-4 with a 2.5 ERA in 12 starts? It tells me the guy is coming out of the game eithier winning or tied most of the time and doesn't get a decision. The ERA going up or down over a period of time reflects how a pitcher is performing on a sliding scale for a shorter period of time. For me that is enough.
Of course the naked eye is the best.
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"What are you going to do when that damn thing rusts?"
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Baseball 2009
