Dean wrote: If their digital library has 5,000 titles and they've only paid for 4,000 of them, they have gained and the artists have lost 20% of their sales, there is no other equation

Perhaps true, but not the most important aspect, sometimes. If at the beginning, they had 1 album from an artist (for simplicity's sake), downloaded illegally, liked it, and bought the whole discography (5 albums) minus that first album, I'd say the artist should be happy they got a chance to have a new fan who bought 4 albums. So then, it's rather that they gained 80% of their sales, than lost 20%. It makes no difference unless you look at what would have happened. But in truth who knows how many people do this? Let's face it, the only people who are really keeping CD sales (and to a large extent all music sales) alive at all are people who really care about music, a dying breed if there ever was one. I think it's might be the case that even if we managed to put the cat back in the bag now, most people don't care enough about music to buy it anymore, and the bands now still would have little to gain.

debrewguy wrote: And the thing is, after reading about all these indie acts that are working their asses off to maintain their career, Martin & Nick's complaints come off as if they believe they are somehow entitled to success. Martin pointedly says that he won't play small pubs. Yet a lot of the groups I mention are able to play across Canada (of the U.S. for the american groups), based upon pulling in 400 people in most of the places they play. And sometimes they don't get that.  Touring means you go out and play for people who will pay to see you. They cannot download a gig.Yet, Martin doesn't see a way of making money on the road. Why won't IQ fans spend money to see them ? Or is it that there are not enough real IQ fans to make it profitable ? Saga, at this year's FMPM, had trouble filling a 400 seat hall. In their home country, in the prog capital of that country. How can that be related to illegal downloads ?

And the thing is, after reading about all these indie acts that are working their asses off to maintain their career, Martin & Nick's complaints come off as if they believe they are somehow entitled to success. Martin pointedly says that he won't play small pubs. Yet a lot of the groups I mention are able to play across Canada (of the U.S. for the american groups), based upon pulling in 400 people in most of the places they play. And sometimes they don't get that.
 Touring means you go out and play for people who will pay to see you. They cannot download a gig.Yet, Martin doesn't see a way of making money on the road. Why won't IQ fans spend money to see them ? Or is it that there are not enough real IQ fans to make it profitable ?

Saga, at this year's FMPM, had trouble filling a 400 seat hall. In their home country, in the prog capital of that country. How can that be related to illegal downloads ?

Teaflax wrote: Yet, nearly all niche genres have seen a resurgence and greater overall market share since the advent of file sharing. The amount of Prog released in 2008 easily dwarfs the entire output of the genre from 1970-1975, I would wager.

This might be true (I very much doubt it) but the number of units sold is miniscule by comparison. The number downloaded illegally can never be known for sure but there is no doubt in my mind that it has hit sales considerably.

As a (retired) professional mathematician, I'd love to see the data and methodology from the studies you quoted which demonstrate that file sharing has actually increased sales because it goes completely contrary to all my own gut instincts and the evidence of the musical fraternity. Of course these are highly reputable institutions but they are not immune to errors!

Debrewguy? You know you can edit a post, right? Instead of making news posts with just one name in them, I mean.

D.O.A.
Bob Wiseman

sorry for the font fun, all cut & paste, eh ...
The Supersuckers, Corb Lund and the Hurtin' Albertans, The Weakerthans, Hank Williams III,

Luther Wright and the Wrongs (ya gotta hear their remake of the wall), the sadies ,

The Reverend Horton Heat

Th' Legendary Shack Shakers,    

Rufus Wainwright

Rufus Wainwright

Robbie Fulks

Fred Eaglesmith 

Dean wrote: debrewguy wrote: o.k. , if I may reserve the following questions to those who I seem to be in disagreement with (meaning if you've been on my side, please refrain from answering these posts) 1) are illegal downloads the one and only , i.e. the sole reason for the decline in CD sales ? yes or no No.   But where you are leading is irrelevant, (or a smoke screen), that declining sales are also caused buy sales of X-Boxes and Probiotic Yogurt and Sun-spots does not make the effect of P2P any different or any less - just because I side against one cause does not mean that I am ignoring (or blind to) the other causes.

 Dean< i'm trying not to imagine what entertainment that you get from pro-biotic yogurt, or sun spots, and i won't go there.

The comparison is entertainment dollars. The reason is that music is part of a person's discretionary purchases . If I budget $100 for live gigs in one year, and I buy a ticket to a mega event that costs me $100 ... how many other concerts will I see that year ? And yes, that happens often. That is a big obstacle for the smaller & newer acts to overcome. Hopefully, at least in North America, the Stones / U2 / ACDC / Eagles et al platinum priced  shows are near their end, as many reports indicate that these shows just aren't selling out anymore. Reading the Lefsetz letter, it's an eye opener how many promoters are giving 90% off tickets to regular industry contacts just to fill out the venue.
as quoted from http://www.ticketnews.com/Concert-industry-posts-record-year-in-2008-but-trials-lie-ahead-in-New-Year12831708
"Billboard Boxscore also reported worldwide concert industry grosses of approximately $4 billion in 2008, an increase of 13 percent from the previous year."

CDs - Say I budget $100 a year for music purchases. Since the advent of new technology that allows small professional studios to be set up for $10-15000 , and the resulting lowering of recording costs, many local and regional bands that could not afford to put out an album are now doing so. Even the most basic techie can use Garage Band to record themselves. Pro Tools anyone ? SO now, you've got even the smallest city with an active music scene finding itself with a pile of bands all putting out stuff. I keep mentioning a half dozen local bands that I support. That's 6 albums that I'm not going to be buying from the bigger acts, and in my case, it means that groups like IQ & Pendragon are farther  down the list on my budget. Not because their music is not worth paying for, or good, great or bad. But because I'm still looking to buy other groups' releases ahead of theirs.

DVDs - weren't around in 1985. And the sales really started to boom in the mid to late 90s. Another place to spend my money on entertainment. I used to work with this guy who no longer bought CDs. Why ? Because buying a CD like Rush's Rush in RIo gave him all the songs he wanted. He could watch it or just listen to it. Add to that, you can buy TV series, movies, concerts. On DVD. Most that were never available on VHS.  And even at that, last year DVD sales were down 5.5%. They only hit ... 22.4 ... billion USD.
PCs - yes, that is an entertainment option. If my income stays the same, and I buy a newly introduced product ... am I able to spend that same money elsewhere ? So ... if I choose to buy a $400 computer, instead of the Beatles Mono Remasters at $200, I am making a conscious decision to buy one thing over another. Same equation if you like - replace it with 20 CDs.
as quoted from http://www.variety.com/article/VR1117998174.html?categoryid=20&cs=1
According to the Digital Entertainment Group, DVD sales slumped 9% last year, bringing overall homevideo spending down 5.5% to $22.4 billion. The DVD decline is greater than recent industry forecasts: Late-year tallies by vid analysts showed sales of the older disc format lagging 5% to 7%.

The news was cheerier on the next-gen front: According to DEG, Blu-ray spending came close to year-end forecasts of $750 million. That reps a threefold increase, and was in line with late-year figures (Daily Variety, Jan. 6).

Rental spending was flat at $7.5 billion for the year."

Computer & Video Games - again, assuming that the music listener's income has not increased (which inflation stats in most of the western world seem to show only the rich coming out ahead with time), does he buy as many CDs ? If I buy a $200 Wii, then get 2 games at $20 each, will I be able to turn around and use this same money to buy music with ? Doesn't mean I'm not buying any. But chances are I'm not going to buy as much. Why ? Because my discretionary budget remained the same.
in the first 8 months they were out : U.S. , Japan & Western Europeen sales totaled -  9 million Wiis, 8.9million  Xbox units and 3.7million PS3s. (respective prices at that time - Wii - $249 ; $300-$400 for the Xbox 360 and $599 for the PS3,)
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/51df0c84-6154-11dc-bf25-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1

Tech gadgets - IPods, IPhones, Blackberries - yes, don't you know, many casual music consumers will choose to use their discretionary funds on one of these, to the detriment of the music industry. Not out of any ill will. Just a matter of a few more slices dividing the pie.
as quoted from http://www.macobserver.com/stockwatch/2008/11/05.3.shtml for 2008.

iPhone Sales

As for the iPhone, Apple's 10K filing reveal that the company recognized some US$1.8 billion in revenue related to the iPhone during the fiscal year. Apple uses a subscription revenue model that it has said is required by the SEC due to revenue sharing and subsidies received from most of Apple's carrier partners.

In reality, Apple took in more than $4 billion in actual cash flow from the iPhone during the September quarter alone. The rest of that money will be reflected in future quarterly filings as the two-year subscription accounting system plays out.

So, while I only passed Accounting 101 in college, I can still figure out the fact that your income does not grow just so you can keep buying the same amount of CDs at the same time as buying consumer items that were not available even 10 years ago.

We forget that the casual music listener does not live for owning the latest album of some group that they've never heard of. They don't get a thrill from discovering an unknown act.

And to clarify things - I know that 1) illegal downloads are illegal. I have not argued to remove legal sanctions against them; 2) Illegal downloads are wrong. Again, I have not said that they were; 3) they cannot be defended by some sort of morality tale of industry abuse or poverty. And nowhere have I said that this constitutes a valid defense. 4) so in essence I have not condoned nor promoted illegal downloads as part of my arguement.

My point is simply that there are a  number of factors that have contributed to the precipitous decline in music sales. My point is also that efforts to fight against illegal downloads have not even managed to stall the drop in CD sales. My point is that they cannot. Technological advances mean that someone somewhere will find a way around it. Remember DRM ? Read about the RIAA's suing people ? About Napster, Kazaa, Pirate Bay being shut down ? Notice that CD sales kept plummeting . PC & Video game sales are reaching new highs, though both may have peaked. But laptops and smart phones are still relatively new products that are just getting to the point where price drops are arriving. But now we are about to have access to HQ video streaming that you can feed to your TV. Music too, so once you find a number of great web radio stations or podcasts, wouldn't it be nice to her it through your home theater set up instead of your PC speakers. SO there will be a new generation of entertainment options to spend money on. On top of the ones already out there. And unless there's a drastic change in income distribution, most people's pay cheques will not be rising to meet the increased variety of purchasing options.
Music is not food. It is not shelter. It is entertainment. It is a passion for some. For most, it is just one of the things that they have the choice of getting from a range of sources. And these days, the CD is not the end all or be all. Nor will downloads save the day. That came too late. And the labels still screwed that up by insisting on high prices from the get go. And the attraction of the album for most is long gone. $20 for 1 great song & ten crappy ones doesn't sell anymore. Sucks to be a prog band , but the emphasis is back on songs. And believe me, there's enough great stuff out there that 99% of music listeners won't bother taking too many chances on long shot maybe I might like it searches. There will always be people that insist on a physical product for music. LPs are still selling. But no one is making millions off of LP sales. Ipods are no longer a necessity. Because once you have one 4GB mega player, why do you need another one. And once it's full, most people aren't rushing out to buy more new music.

MY point is that time & effort is better spent trying to find a way to get paid in today's reality. Some groups are able to do it. DO you prefer to study success or complain about failure ?

Because the old days aren't coming back. Even if Martin or Nick become benevolent king poobahs of the world.

Subscription models are one of the next steps. Spotify may work because this time the major labels have gotten a financial interest in the company. SO it means that services like it have to show success before they get access to the music they need to draw paying customers in.
And that will mean getting a little money from a lot of people. Which will mean the same for bands, assuming the majors don't play the game as per usual.  That will also mean that bands will need to work to earn their fanbase. That is already the case. Again, some bands are able to do so. And this despite all the heart rending stories as to how musicians are not able to be successful because of illegal downloads. Maybe they didn't get the memo.

So if discretionary income does not rise, and more slices are cut in the pie, would anyone find it surprising that the current music industry model is set to die ? Whether or not illegal downloads are wiped out.

Again, this is not to condone, promote, or defend illegal downloads, whether in their legal or moral status. That has been addressed as the law is quite clear.

 This is to point out that other competitors for the consumer dollar have come out in the last decade. But the consumer still just has the same amount of dollars ... and he doesn't look at his budget and go "hmm, I now spend X dollars on music, but now there's this other thing that has just come out that I'd like to buy, but I only have so much money ... guess I'll cut back somewhere else so I can keep buying music".