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SteveG

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Posted: October 04 2018 at 13:37

rushfan4 wrote:

If current news is to believed, the Kavanaugh nomination is galvanizing the Republican side to get out and vote. Not to mention all of Teflon Don's political rallies where he claims that there will be a red wave, which of course riles up his supporters.

It is really scary how much different the articles read on the right wing side of the internet than they read on the left wing side.

I believe that there's galvanization on both sides with the GOP always a little ahead. We don't have the minorities we need to trump them (ugh!) but a lot of pissed off women could help us. But you're right. It's easier for the Dems to take the House than the Senate.

Edited by SteveG - October 04 2018 at 13:38

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SteveG

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Posted: October 04 2018 at 13:39

Atavachron wrote:

dr wu23 wrote:

Atavachron wrote:

^ Maybe that's one of the few strategic advantages the Dems have: they can hide their dirty pool behind a reputation of fairness.

And what 'dirty pool' would that be...? Trying to point out to the people at large who voted him in that our current President is a corrupt narcissistic obnoxious jerk ?

I don't know but they better start wising-up and stop being naive because it does their constituents no good. And don't tell me you think Dems are angels-- John Kennedy practically stole the 1960 election from Nixon, LBJ was one of the most corrupt politicians in history, and Bill Clinton was assaulting women on his own staff.

The Dems are dirty too David. They just wear it better.

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dr wu23

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Posted: October 04 2018 at 13:49

^ This......,but even so , in no way were any of those Dems mentioned above anywhere near as obnoxious and idiotic as Drumpf.........there's simply no comparison.

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SteveG

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Posted: October 04 2018 at 13:51

^ Amen.

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micky

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Posted: October 04 2018 at 15:34

rushfan4 wrote:

It is really scary how much different the articles read on the right wing side of the internet than they read on the left wing side.

there is no red wave Scott... Repubiicans have been saying that publicly...PR.. and to minimize the damage not depress their supporters... but privately knowing they are going to get crushed in the midterms.

if he confirmed and it appears the FBI report gave teh Repubican Senators the political cover they needed to not buck their party .. this becomes a non issue for them. If he had been rejected and the possibility that the few wide open and contested Senate seats might determine who fills the seat... then yes.. it could have really motivated the Repubican base. Note through all of this... polls still show and sugest a break even or net pick up of 1, maybe 2 Democratic Senate seats..

the House is pretty much gone to the Republicans.. something they admit privately...

and I read the first story today of the impeachment of Justice Kavanaugh... it will likely happen.. much sooner and easier than our Toddler President.

most political observations give the Democrats a 1 in 3 shot at retaking the Senate. Possible .. but not likely... the math was far too daunting with all the red state Dem's up this midterm. Most will win, however they need near all to win and that likely is not going to happen.

now for that 2nd part....funny Scott... I was going to post something but saw your post and I illustrates perfectly what you are saying.

I had a busy day at work and didn't have time to check the news and all that jazz... when I got back to my office and popping the tops on the first beers of the day my best friend at work, who is about 15 years younger than me and heavy into social media and all that sh*t asked me if I had heard the latest of Kavanaugh. Nope I hadn't .. and he proceeded to tell me what HE HAD HEARD...

that the FBI report was issued (knew it was being given privately to the Seante) and that the FBI said that Ford made this all up and he proceeded to tell me who people in the social media were all riled up that she made this iup and ran him through the mud.

Needless to say.. I was HIGHLY skeptical of what he told me. The FBI was doing a background check on Kavanaugh.. not passing judgement on Ford. So I told him I'd check out the news when I got home.. and as I expected... all the FBI apparently said it is could not collaborate her story.

amazing ....

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Atavachron View Drop Down

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Posted: October 04 2018 at 15:48

^ Guy sounds like a shill. the FBI being highly professional and apolitical (most of the time, after all it ain't 1967) but only having a week to investigate, I expected an inconclusive report. Of course they can't corroborate her story: it happened in a small room with three people present thirty years ago. It is almost impossible to corroborate. What the investigation should have shown was further evidence of Kavy's disturbed persona, drinking problem, and near-criminal attitude toward women.

In other news, I'm starting to hear serious push-back from the right regarding Republicans not pushing for a Wall, stuff like "If you send the Republican representatives back to Washington we won't get our wall!"

The infighting has begun . . .

"Too often we enjoy the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought." -- John F. Kennedy

micky

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Posted: October 04 2018 at 16:03

he is a great guy.. I'd go through a wall from him.. but yes.. very politically naive. I warned him not to believe everything he reads after Pizzagate which had him foaming at the mouth. He hated Hillary as much as he hated Trump so he voted Johnson. He is very interesting.. somewhat like me he has leftist and right wing tendencies.. but I've formed my opinions and views through a substantial life education.. his is molded by social media. I don't think he is anything close to being unique in that for the sub 40 year old crowd.

yeah... the Republicans don't feel they have purged all teh centrists out of their party yet..and will eat their own until they feel they are ideologically pure. The lack of that has been both the Democrats greatest strength but near fatal weakness. I'd hate to see the big ideological tent that has been the Democratic Party die off.. but as I posted to Scott.. that time is not merely coming.. it was birthed in 2016, going through teething in 2018 and hits puberty in 2020.

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rogerthat

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Posted: October 05 2018 at 01:36

Interestingly enough, in his interview with Bill Maher, Bannon too predicted a populist left candidate for the Dems, Trump running for reelection and a third party centrist candidate like Bloomberg. Drastic change from the two mainstream party centrists plus Ross Perot pattern of the 90s.

SteveG

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Posted: October 05 2018 at 07:25

How about Tom Hanks in 2020?

Edited by SteveG - October 05 2018 at 07:25

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micky

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Posted: October 05 2018 at 08:10

rogerthat wrote:

Interestingly enough, in his interview with Bill Maher, Bannon too predicted a populist left candidate for the Dems, Trump running for reelection and a third party centrist candidate like Bloomberg. Drastic change from the two mainstream party centrists plus Ross Perot pattern of the 90s.

Bannon might be a kook but he's no idiot.. nor a particular sage either.

Trump is said to fear Biden as a rival in 2020.. and rightfully so.. but I think he overlooks Warren. Perhaps he thinks a few cheap insults make her less a formidable opponent but as I said a year ago.... populism is a sword that cuts both directions and populism is naturally geared to the Democratic party and with her wielding it.. as a true believer... any defections from the corporate wing of the wing.. for yes.. it would be open warfare on corporate America if she was elected..

will be more than offset by if not winning back working class Democrats.. taking enough back that she crushes Trump is a general election.

Granted the Democratic Party is not the smartest or most savvy party in existence.. I think they have started to learn a few lessons from the Republicans. Fear and anger are very powerful poitical tools in the hands of populist.. especially a true believer. not a snake oil salesman like Trump. Fear and anger at corporate America and destructive chasm between haves and have nots in the country is a far more powerful tool than blaming immigrants for the problems of this country. With her, this country might finally look in the mirror as to what its real problems are... the rich get richer.. the less well get f**ked.

Of course that is not to say the less well off haven't earned it by supporting a party which does nothing but pander fear of Democrats and minorities instead of the very real economic issues which have pretty much gutted the middle class of this nation in the last 30 or so years.

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micky

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Posted: October 05 2018 at 08:53

yeah...I do get asked that all the time.. how I can be so sure Trump is toast in 2020. Wasn't i wrong, wasn't everyone wrong about him in 2016. Sure but that was a perfect storm that is not likely to happen again. He has his chance... and got (next to himself( the single most flawed and disliked liked Presidential nominnee ever haha.

Trump little to no chance to win? Easy.. basic math. The overall precentage of white vote in this country has is and is continuing to declline. Part of my resoning of the death of the Republican Party is most studies show that decline is about to accelerate in the next decade. Pandering to whites, and nativists while alienating minorities is putting a gun to your head and pulling the trigger. It is long term political suicide.

Some studies say 2% every 4 years, some as low as 2% per 4. Either way.. Trump barely won in 2016. Razor thin margins in multiple states, which did all break his way, which was the difference between a narrow win.. and being bitched slapped in electoral vortes.

So the hard truth is Trump not only has to keep all of the support he had in 2016.. and it appears he has not.. while the right wing still support him, he is losing educated suburbanites and moderates/independents.

Unless the Democrats put up another Hillary Clinton.. which they won't.. for they can't... she was unique in her history and exposure/recognition.. the Democrats will be bringing far more voters out in 2020.. if Trump doesn't correspondingly increase HIS share of the vote.. he has very little chance to win.

“The long-term challenge for Republicans remains unchanged: They still have to figure out how to appeal to the growing proportion of the electorate that is non- white and college-educated,” said GOP pollster Whit Ayres, who worked during the Republican primaries for Trump rival Marco Rubio, the Florida senator. “Trump managed to slip the punch for one election, but that changed nothing about the long-term challenge. For the Democrats … they have to [find] a substantive message that appeals beyond identity politics, and they haven’t figured that out yet.”

Another reason why Warren is a Trump killer... she won't make the same mistake Hillary did in focusing on identity politics and ignoring the working class. Warren has... and as a woman/minority herself.. the bases are covered on the ID politics but the focus will be not be on ID politics but the economic plight of the working class and the less well off and the unrestrained power and greed of corporate America.

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SteveG

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Posted: October 05 2018 at 09:24

^ micky, for the next 6 years, at least, its going to be more of the same, I'm afraid.

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SteveG

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Posted: October 05 2018 at 09:29

Washington (CNN)BREAKING: Senate votes to advance Brett Kavanaugh's Supreme Court nomination in a critical test of support.

A final confirmation vote is expected Saturday.

Republican Sens. Jeff Flake and Susan Collins supported the motion, as did Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin, who had been undecided. GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski voted no.

---

Well, that's the way the cookie crumbles. A pity about Flake and an a surprise from Manchin. This will haunt him forever. Instant karma indeed.

Edit: For those unfamiliar, there's still a final vote in the Senate tomorrow, so it's not ever yet.

Edited by SteveG - October 05 2018 at 09:37

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micky

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Posted: October 05 2018 at 10:36

it's not over yet Steve.. Flake is playing with house money per se.. and perhaps his path forward politically is forging his own McCain moment. This was a mere procedural vote.... and doubt a vote is happening this weekend no matter what Mitch wants. Especially if Murkowski isn't on board.

I read one of the Repubican Senators is not going to vote this weekend, not be in D.C. for his daughters's wedding, thus they risk a 49-50 if he isn't there to vote. Likely a Monday vote if they don't have 51 (-1) firm votes which it appears they don't.

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micky

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Posted: October 05 2018 at 10:46

SteveG wrote:

^ micky, for the next 6 years, at least, its going to be more of the same, I'm afraid.

I understand the pessimism.. but understand.. there is no rational reason for it.

His support is declining... not among the bigots, racists, nativists, and fundies..they willl support him no matter what. That (40%) gets you crushed in a general election but losing those that voted with hail mary as the best of two very bad choices. To say nothing of women who are highly pissed and highly motivated, the minorites that stayed at home in 2016,did not get out and vote and now see the result of what Democratic apathy is, nor the independents and moderates that perhaps hoped he would pivot into a being Presidential from his campaign rhetoric.

I beg you or anyone, to present a thoughtful and rational path to Trump being reelected. It doesn't exist short of Hillary being George Romero'd. He needs to have increased his support beyond his knuckleheaded supporters of 2016. Have you seen any evidence that he has appealed.. even tried to appeal to those that didn't support him. I can point to a mountain of evidence of those against him....

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rushfan4

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Posted: October 05 2018 at 10:53

They announced this morning that the federal unemployment rate has reached a 49-year low at 3.7%. Those kind of numbers will garnish Trump more votes than you think. One of those stats that was fake news when Trump was running for president that he will hold out as his accomplishment now that he is president. I have no idea if this is because of or in spite of Trump's policies. Although, it is likely because of, although it also is a result of kicking the can down the road with the national debt as a result of the tax cuts.

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Posted: October 05 2018 at 11:03

two years is a long way to go Scott.. considering if anything.. Trump's policies and trade war will negatively affect the economy. It is too much to assume that people would realize that he inherited an economy 7 years on the upswing after Obama saved it post Bush economic meltdown... but as I've said.. and strongly believe.. economics is a mere smokescreen for what drives many people's votes. They have the same, both sides are f**ked up and don't care about us mantra. Regardless of what they say.. it is social issues that drive your vote, my vote, and many others vote. That is why the poorest and most in need of help vote the for the party that cares the least for them, and whose only accomplishment in 2 years is passing a massive tax cut to the rich and powerful. They aren't stupid.. they just aren't being honest... they care more about social issues, guns and God, than their own economic well being like having good health care, good education, and decent paying jobs.

Even under those great numbers.. where are his approval numbers... still sucking ass. He doesn't deserve any credit for them, and apparantly is getting very little for them.

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SteveG

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Posted: October 05 2018 at 11:19

micky wrote:

it's not over yet Steve.. Flake is playing with house money per se.. and perhaps his path forward politically is forging his own McCain moment. This was a mere procedural vote.... and doubt a vote is happening this weekend no matter what Mitch wants. Especially if Murkowski isn't on board.

I agree with a Monday vote but not on Flake. He's way too undecided and (should I say it?) flakey. But Collins could flip because she did so in the past. I never give up hope but the slim odds are getting slimmer.

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rushfan4

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Posted: October 05 2018 at 11:29

Flake has said that he is voting Yes tomorrow. Collins is announcing how she will vote at 3:00 today. If she says that she is voting No, than Manchin will be the deciding vote. The Republican who will not be in town tomorrow has said that he if flying back after his daughter's wedding to vote Yes.

SteveG

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Posted: October 05 2018 at 11:41

Win or lose, the Dems put up a hell of a fight and stuck to a united front that I've seldom seen. They will only get better over time and the GOP now has to look over their shoulders. Like I've said before the gloves are off.

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